HK Weekly Recap & Analysis January 9th, 2023
The Week Ahead (January 9th – January 13th)
KEY ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES TO WATCH
MARKET RECAP FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
January 2, 2023
The market closed in observance of the New Years' Holiday.
January 3, 2023
Tesla should have delivered numbers. Tesla delivered 405,278 vehicles to customers in the last three months, short of the 420,760 expected.
The Stock was down 10% at a point in the day.
US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final Actual 46.2 (Forecast 46.2, Previous 46.2)
Nvidia announced it is partnering with Foxconn to manufacture electric cars. Foxconn will be using Nvidia’s software and hardware to make autonomous vehicles.
FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried pleads not guilty to criminal charges
Southwest Airlines is being sued over mass cancellations over the holidays
Intraday Change for Indices:
S&P500: -.76
Dow: -.04
Nasdaq: -1.66
January 4, 2023
US ISM Manufacturing PMI Actual 48.4 (Forecast 48.5, Previous 49.0)
US JOLTS Job Openings Actual 10.458M (Forecast 10.05M, Previous 10.334M)
US ISM Mfg. Prices Paid Actual 39.4 (Forecast 42.9, Previous 43.0)
US ISM Mfg. Expenses Paid Actual 39.4 (Forecast 42.9, Previous 43.0)
FOMC minutes:
The Fed made significant progress toward a sufficiently restrictive monetary policy last year
Further rate increases and no rate cuts predicted for 2023
More evidence is necessary on inflation to be confident in a sustained downward path
Amazon lays off 18,000 workers
Intraday Change for Indices:
S&P500: .33
Dow: .32
Nasdaq: -.09
January 5, 2023
US Initial Jobless Claims Actual 204k (Forecast 225k, Previous 225k)
US S&P Services PMI Final Actual 44.7 (Forecast 44.4, Previous 44.4)
Russia declares a one-day truce with Ukraine for their Christmas
Fed’s Bullard:
Inflation is too high but is decreasing and expected to be moderate in 2023.
The Fed’s policy will soon be restrictive with additional rate hikes.
Rate hikes and Fed action are keeping inflation under control.
Bed Bath Beyond is exploring options for the future, including bankruptcy
ChatGPT creator OpenAI in talks for tender offer valued at $29 billion
Intraday Change for Indices:
S&P500: -.82
Dow: -.79
Nasdaq: -.82
January 6, 2023
US Nonfarm Payrolls Actual 223k (Forecast 202k, Previous 263k)
US Unemployment Rate Actual 3.5% (Forecast 3.7%, Previous 3.7%, Revision 3.6%
The US added 223,000 jobs in December, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%
US Average Earnings YoY Actual 4.6% (Forecast 5%, Previous 5.1%, Revision 4.8%)
Tesla cut prices on the Model 3/Y in China and other Asian markets as demand slows
US ISM Services Employment Actual 49.8 (Forecast -, Previous 51.5)
US ISM Services New Orders Actual 45.2 (Forecast -, Previous 56.0)
US ISM Services Prices Paid Actual 67.6 (Forecast -, Previous 70.0)
Fed's Barkin: Estimates from studies show it can take 6-12 months for demand pullbacks to reduce the inflation rate.
The Fed remains committed to inflation and must remain vigilant until inflation returns to the 2% target sustainably.
Party City plans to file for bankruptcy within weeks.
Intraday Change for Indices:
S&P500: 1.88
Dow: 1.74
Nasdaq: 1.98
THE WEEK AHEAD & EARNINGS
Monday – 01/09/2023
NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations - 11 AM ET
NY Fed 5-year inflation expectations - 11 AM ET
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks - 12:30 PM ET
Consumer credit - 3 PM ET
AM Earnings: Acuity Brands (AYI), Commercial Metals (CMC), Tilray (TLRY)
PM Earnings: Jefferies Financial Group (JEF), WD-40 Company (WDFC), PriceSmart Inc (PSMT), E2open Parent Holdings (ETWO), AZZ Inc (AZZ), Accolade (ACCD), VOXX International (VOXX)
Tuesday – 01/10/2023
NFIB small-business index - 6 AM ET
Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks in Sweden - 9 AM ET
Wholesale inventories (revision) - 10 AM ET
AM Earnings: Albertsons Companies (ACI), TD Synnex (SNX), Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY)
PM Earnings: Saratoga Investment (SAR)
Wednesday – 01/11/2023
No economic news is scheduled.
AM Earnings: Boston Scientific Corp (BSX)
PM Earnings: KB Home (KBH)
Thursday – 01/12/2023
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks - 7:30 AM ET
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks - 8 AM ET
Consumer price index - 8:30 AM ET
Core CPI - 8:30 AM ET
CPI (year-over-year) - 8:30 AM ET
Core CPI (year-over-year) - 8:30 AM ET
CPI excluding shelter (3-month SAAR) - 8:30 AM ET
Initial jobless claims - 8:30 AM ET
Continuing jobless claims - 8:30 AM ET
Federal budget - 2 PM ET
AM Earnings: Northern Technologies (NTIC), OrganiGram (OGI)
PM Earnings: None scheduled.
Friday – 01/13/2023
Import price index - 8:30 AM ET
UMich consumer sentiment index (early) - 10 AM ET
UMich 1-year consumer inflation expectations - 10 AM ET
UMich 5-year consumer inflation expectations - 10 AM ET
AM Earnings: UnitedHealth Group (UNH), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), Delta Air Lines (DAL), First Republic Bank (FRC)
