HK Weekly Recap & Analysis January 23rd, 2023
The Week Ahead (January 23rd – January 27th)
KEY ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES TO WATCH
MARKET RECAP FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
January 16, 2023
The market is closed in observance of MLK day.
January 17, 2023
Moody's: The drop in oil prices since June reflects lower market expectations for growth in oil demand, despite a short-term decline in demand from China.
Palantir CEO Alex Karp at WEF in Davos says he plans to hire a couple of hundred employees amid the economic downturn.
Microsoft cut thousands of jobs, roughly 5% of their workforce.
Goldman Sachs CFO: The bank is seeing early signs of consumer credit deterioration
ECB is starting to consider slower hikes after the halfway point in February. 50-bp on February.25-bp in March
Starbucks and Doordash are expanding their delivery partnership nationwide. Key features of the expansion include lower fees, greater customization, packaging solutions, and prompt delivery.
Intraday Change for Indices:
S&P500: -0.21%
Dow Jones: -0.91%
Nasdaq: 0.23%
January 18, 2023
US Core PPI YoY Actual 5.5% (Forecast 5.6%, Previous 6.2%)
US Core PPI MoM Actual 0.1% (Forecast 0.1%, Previous 0.4%)
US PPI YoY Actual 6.2% (Forecast 6.8%, Previous 7.4%)
US Retail Sales MoM Actual -1.1% (Forecast -0.9%, Previous -0.6%)
Fed’s Bullard: My 2023 rate projection in December was 5.25%-5.5%.
Inflation will likely fall in 2023, but not as quickly as financial markets anticipate.
US Justice Department: We are about to announce a global cryptocurrency enforcement action.
Intraday Change for Indices:
S&P500: -1.83%
Dow Jones: -1.92%
Nasdaq: -1.92%
January 19, 2023
US Initial Jobless Claims Actual 190k (Forecast 213.5k, Previous 205k)
US Continued Jobless Claims Actual 1.647M (Forecast 1.655M, Previous 1.634M)
Fed’s Collins: I see noticeably slower goods inflation, but services inflation remains persistently high. I am still reasonably optimistic that there is a path to reducing inflation without a significant economic downturn.
The US government has hit its $31.4 trillion debt limit.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen tells Congress: The debt issuance suspension period will begin on Thursday, January 19th, 2023, and last through Monday, June 5th, 2023.
Moody's: We anticipate the US government will agree on a new debt limit before the Treasury's extraordinary measures are exhausted.
San Francisco Bay Area housing prices have fallen 30% from the peak
Netflix Added Nearly 7.7M Subscribers in 4Q, More Than 4.5M Forecast
Intraday Change for Indices:
S&P500: -0.33%
Dow Jones: -0.38%
Nasdaq: -0.35%
January 20, 2023
US Existing Home Sales Actual 4.02M (Forecast 3.95M, Previous 4.09M, Revision 4.08M)
US Existing Home Sales change Actual -1.5% (Forecast -3.42%, Previous -7.7%)
Fed blackout period begins after the close today, and the buyback blackout period ends Jan 29
The Federal Reserve is investigating Goldman Sachs’s consumer business to determine whether the bank had appropriate safeguards in place as it ramped up lending. --WSJ
Intraday Change for Indices:
S&P500: 1.63%
Dow Jones: 0.91%
Nasdaq: 1.98%
THE WEEK AHEAD & EARNINGS
Monday – 01/23/2023
Leading economic indicators - 10 AM ET
AM Earnings: Baker Hughes (BKR), Bank of Hawaii (BOH), Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC), Synchrony Bank (SYF)
PM Earnings: Brown & Brown Inc (BRO), Logitech (LOGI), Zions Bancorp (ZION), Crane Holdings (CR), FNB Corp (FNB), ServisFirst Bancshares (SFBS), Umpqua Holdings (UMPQ), Independent Bank Group (IBTX), NBT Bancorp (NBTB), Hope Bancorp (HOPE)
Tuesday – 01/24/2023
S&P U.S. manufacturing PMI (flash) - 9:45 AM ET
S&P U.S. services PMI (flash) - 9:45 AM ET
AM Earnings: 3M Company (MMM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Danaher Corp (DHR), Verizon (VZ), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), Union Pacific Corp (UNP), Lockheed Martin (LMT), General Electric (GE), The Travelers Companies (TRV), Invesco (IVZ)
PM Earnings: Microsoft (MSFT), Texas Instruments (TXN), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Canadian National Railway (CNI), Capital One (COF), F5, Inc (FFIV), Silgan Holdings (SLGN), UMB Financial (UMBF), Navient Corp (NAVI), Trustmark Corp (TRMK)
Wednesday – 01/25/2023
No economic event scheduled
AM Earnings: ASML Holding (ASML), Abbott (ABT), NextEra Energy (NEE), AT&T (T ), Boeing Company (BA), Elevance Health (ELV), Automatic Data Processing (ADP), General Dynamics (GD), Kimberly-Clark Corp (KMB), Hess Corp (HES)
PM Earnings: Tesla (TSLA), International Business Machines (IBM), ServiceNow (NOW), Corporation (CSX), Crown Castle (CCI), Lam Research Corp (LRCX), United Rentals (URI), Steel Dynamics (STLD), Teradyne (TER), Seagate Technology (STX)
Thursday – 01/26/2023
Initial jobless claims - 8:30 AM ET
Continuing jobless claims - 8:30 AM ET
Real gross domestic product, first estimate (SAAR) - 8:30 AM ET
Real final sales to domestic purchasers, first estimate (SAAR) - 8:30 AM ET
Trade in goods (advance) - 8:30 AM ET
Durable goods orders - 8:30 AM ET
Core capital goods orders - 8:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed national activity index - 8:30 AM ET
New home sales (SAAR) - 10 AM ET
AM Earnings: Mastercard (MA), Comcast (CMCSA), SAP SE (SAP), Marsh & McLennan (MMC), Blackstone (BX), Valero Energy (VLO), Dow Inc (DOW), Nucor Corp (NUE), STMicroelectronics NV (STM), Nokia Corporation (NOK)
PM Earnings: Visa (V), Intel (INTC), KLA Corporation (KLAC), Authur J Gallagher (AJG), L3Harris Technologies (LHX), ResMed (RMD), Weyerhaeuser Company (WY), WR Berkley Corp (WRB), Eaatman Chemical Company (EMN), Olin Corp (OLN)
Friday – 01/27/2023
Real disposable incomes (SAAR) - 8:30 AM ET
Real consumer spending (SAAR) - 8:30 AM ET
PCE price index - 8:30 AM ET
Core PCE price index - 8:30 AM ET
PCE price index, year-over-year - 8:30 AM ET
Core PCE price index, year-over-year - 8:30 AM ET
UMich consumer sentiment index (late) - 10 AM ET
UMich 1-year inflation expectations (late) - 10 AM ET
UMich 5-year inflation expectations (late) - 10 AM ET
Pending home sales - 10 AM ET
AM Earnings: American Express (AXP), Autoliv (ALV), Chevron Corp (CVX), HCA Healthcare (HCA), Booze Allen Hamilton (BAH), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Roper Technologies (ROP), First Hawaiian (FHB), First BanCorp (FBP), Gentex Corporation (GNTX)
