HK Weekly Recap & Analysis February 6th, 2023
The Week Ahead (February 6th – February 10rd)
KEY ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES TO WATCH
MARKET RECAP FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
January 30, 2023
Ford is cutting prices for various models of its electric Mustang Mach-E and "significantly" increasing vehicle production this year.
Pinterest expected to announce layoffs.
Twitter has begun applying for regulatory licenses across the US and designing the software required to introduce payments across the social media platform.
Tesla to offer new $3,000 discount or free Supercharging with trade-ins
China’s largest search engine, Baidu, plans to debut an AI chatbot like ChatGPT
Biden to end Covid-19 emergency declarations on May 11th
Intraday Change for Indices:
S&P 500 -1.25%
Dow Jones -0.75%
Nasdaq -2.02%
January 31, 2023
The White House has approved more than 16 million people for student loan forgiveness.
US Employment Costs Actual 1.0% (Forecast 1.1%, Previous 1.2%)
US Chicago PMI Actual 44.3 (Forecast 45.1, Previous 44.9)
US CB Consumer Confidence Actual 107.1 (Forecast 109, Previous 108.3)
US 1-year consumer inflation rate expectations 6.8% in January vs. revised 6.6% in December
Upstart Holdings plans to lay off about 20% of its workforce and suspend the development of its small-business loan product.
Bankrupt crypto lender Celsius Network exposed for propping up its own "worthless" token
PayPal plans to lay off about 7% (2,000 workers) of its staff as it continues with broader efforts to reduce costs.
Intraday Change for Indices:
S&P 500 +1.47%
Dow Jones +1.12%
Nasdaq +1.50%
February 1, 2023
Sam Bankman-Fried wanted to regain control of FTX by moving assets and getting better treatment from foreign regulators.
Google is asking employees to test potential ChatGPT competitors and ways to integrate it into their search engine.
US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final Actual 46.9 (Forecast 46.8, Previous 46.8)
US ISM Manufacturing PMI Actual 47.4 (Forecast 48, Previous 48.4)
US ISM Mfg. Prices Paid Actual 44.5 (Forecast 40.4, Previous 39.4)
US ISM Mfg. Employment Index Actual 50.6 (Forecast -, Previous 51.4)
US ISM Mfg. New Orders Index Actual 42.5 (Forecast -, Previous 45.2)
US Construction Spending MoM Actual -0.4% (Forecast 0%, Previous 0.2%)
US JOLTS Job Openings Actual 11.012M (Forecast 10.3M, Previous 10.458M
Microsoft to include ChatGPT in Bing within the next few weeks
FedEx is cutting 10% of its officer and director teams
OpenAI has introduced a ChatGPT Plus subscription at $20/per month
US Interest Rate Decision Actual 4.75% (Forecast 4.75%, Previous 4.5%)
The Fed raised rates 25bps as expected
Meta, Facebook, announced a $40 billion share buyback.
Intraday Change for Indices:
S&P 500 +1.06%
Dow Jones +0.01%
Nasdaq +2.14%
February 2, 2023
US Initial Jobless Claims Actual 183k (Forecast 195k, Previous 186k)
US Continued Jobless Claims Actual 1.655M (Forecast 1.684M, Previous 1.675M)
US Factory Orders MoM Actual 1.8% (Forecast 2.3%, Previous -1.8%)
US Durable Goods Revised Actual 5.6% (Forecast 5.6%, Previous 5.6%)
US Core Durable Goods Revised Actual -0.2% (Forecast -0.1%, Previous -0.1%)
Twitter to start chagrin developers for API access beginning Feb. 9
OpenAI's ChatGPT recorded 100M monthly active users in January, two months after launch.
This would be the fastest-growing consumer application ever recorded.
Intraday Change for Indices:
S&P 500 +1.46%
Dow Jones -0.13%
Nasdaq +3.59%
February 3, 2023
US Unemployment Rate Actual 3.4% (Forecast 3.6%, Previous 3.5%)
Lowest rate since 1969
US Nonfarm Payrolls Actual 517k (Forecast 188k, Previous 223k)
US Manufacturing Payrolls Actual 19k (Forecast 7k, Previous 8k)
US Private Payrolls Actual 443k (Forecast 190k, Previous 220k)
US Average Earnings YoY Actual 4.4% (Forecast 4.3%, Previous 4.6%, Revision 4.9%)
Activision Blizzard agreed to pay $35 million to settle regulatory claims with the SEC.
US S&P Services PMI Final Actual 46.8 (Forecast 46.6, Previous 46.6)
FTX is believed to have more than a million creditors; the top 50 collectively owe more than $3 billion.
US ISM Services PMI Actual 55.2 (Forecast 50.5, Previous 49.6)
US ISM Services New Orders Actual 60.4 (Forecast -, Previous 45.2)
US ISM Services Prices Paid Actual 67.8 (Forecast -, Previous 67.6)
US ISM Services Employment Actual 50.0 (Forecast -, Previous 49.8)
FTC Preparing Possible Antitrust Suit Against Amazon
The U.S. Treasury Department said it would make more Tesla, Ford, General Motors, and Volkswagen electric vehicles eligible for up to $7,500 tax credits.
Intraday Change for Indices:
S&P 500 -1.06%
Dow Jones -0.43%
Nasdaq -1.78%
THE WEEK AHEAD & EARNINGS
Monday – 02/06/2023
No economic event is scheduled.
AM Earnings: CNA Financial Corp (CNA ), Cummins Inc (CMI), ON Semiconductor (ON), Tyson Foods (TSN), IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX), Loews (L), Energizer Holdings (ENR), Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX), Affiliated Managers Group (AMG), Timken Company (TKR)
PM Earnings: Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Simon Property Group (SPG), Take-Two Interactive (TTWO), Pinterest (PINS), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), UDR (UDR), AECOM (ACM), Zoominfo Technologies (ZI), Chegg (CHGG), Spirit Airlines (SAVE)
Tuesday – 02/07/2023
International trade deficit - 8:30 AM ET
Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at Economic Club of Washington - 12:40 PM ET
Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr speaks - 2 PM ET
Consumer credit - 3 PM ET
AM Earnings: Adient plc (ADNT), AGCO Corporation (AGCO), Aramark Holdings (ARMK), BP plc (BP), Carrier Global Corp (CARR), Centene Corporation (CNC), DuPont (DD), Fisver (FISV), Jacobs (J), Linde (LIN)
PM Earnings: Vertex Pharma (VRTX), Chipotle (CMG), Fortinet (FTNT), Prudential Financial (PRU), Illumina (ILMN), Enphase Energy (ENPH), Yum China Holdings (YUMC), Paycom Software (PAYC), Amcor plc (AMCR), Atmos Energy (ATO)
Wednesday – 02/08/2023
New York Fed President John Williams speaks - 9:15 AM ET
Fed Gov. Lisa Cook speaks - 9:30 AM ET
Wholesale inventories (revision) - 10 AM ET
Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speak - 10 AM ET
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks - 12:30 PM ET
Fed Gov. Christopher Waller speaks - 1:45 PM ET
AM Earnings: Uber (UBER), CDW Corp (CDW), CVS Health (CVS), Dominion Energy (D), Eaton Corp (ETN), Emerson Electro Co (EMR), Fox Corporation (FOXA), Penske Automotive (PAG), Teva Pharma (TEVA), Yum! Brands (YUM)
PM Earnings: Disney (DIS), O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), Sun Life Financial (SLF), International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), Equifax (EFX), AvalonBay Communities (AVB), MGM Resorts (MGM), FleetCor Technologies (FLT), U-Haul Holding (UHAL), STERIS plc (STE)
Thursday – 02/09/2023
Initial jobless claims - 8:30 AM ET
Continuing jobless claims - 8:30 AM ET
AM Earnings: AbbVie Inc (ABBV), Apollo Global (APO), Philip Morris International (PM), AstraZeneca (AZN), Thomson Reuters (TRI), Baxter International (BAX), Duke Energy (DUK), Hilton Worldwide Holding (HLT), Kellogg Company (K), PepsiCo (PEP)
PM Earnings: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), Motorola Solutions (MSI), DexCom (DXCM), Expedia Group (EXPE), Cloudflare (NET), Equity Residential (EQR), VeriSign (VRSN), Ventas (VTR), News Corporation (NWSA), Lyft (LYFT)
Friday – 02/10/2023
UMich consumer sentiment index (early) - 10 AM ET
UMich 1-year inflation expectations (early) - 10 AM ET
UMich 5-year inflation expectations (early) - 10 AM ET
Fed Gov. Christopher Waller speaks - 12:30 PM ET
Federal budget balance - 2 PM ET
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks - 4 PM ET
AM Earnings: Enbridge (ENB), Fortis (FTS), Honda Motor (HMC), Magna International (MGA), Newell Brands (NWL), Mr. Cooper Group (COOP), Spectrum Brands (SPB), WP Carey Inc (WPC), IQVIA Holdings (IQV), Sensient Technologies (SXT)
