HaiKhuu Weekly Recap & Analysis
February 19 - February 23, 2024
MAJOR EVENTS OF LAST WEEK
Major Indices’ Weekly Movement:
S&P 500: +1.60%
Nasdaq: +1.74%
Dow Jones: +1.13%
Highlights:
The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high of $510.13
Nvidia reached a new all-time high of $823.94 with a market cap of $2 trillion following its earnings beat
FOMC Minutes:
A couple of policymakers pointed to downside risks from maintaining an overly restrictive stance for too long
Fed officials judged the policy rate likely at its peak for this cycle
Staff placed some weight on the chance that further progress on lowering inflation could take longer than expected
DAILY EVENT BREAKDOWN
Monday, February 19
Stock Related News:
Markets Closed for President’s Day
Tuesday, February 20
Stock Related News:
Capital One to acquire Discover Financial Services in a $35.3B all-stock deal
Microsoft is developing AI server gear to lessen its reliance on Nvidia
Nvidia announced it will host its flagship GTC 2024 conference at the San Jose Convention Center from March 18-21
Elon Musk’s SpaceX is deepening its ties with American intelligence and military agencies, winning at least one major classified contract and expanding a secretive company satellite program called Starshield for national-security customers
The FTC and a group of states are poised to sue to block the Kroger-Albertsons deal
A lawsuit seeks to block ESPN, Warner, and Fox Sports streaming service
FuboTV sued the media companies behind a new sports-streaming platform scheduled to launch this fall, alleging that they wouldn’t let Fubo carry a small bundle of sports-focused channels
Economic News:
Leading Index Change MoM -0.4% (Forecast -0.3%, Previous -0.1%)
Economist Poll on Rate Cuts:
86 out of 104 economists predict the Federal Reserve will cut the Fed funds rate in the second quarter, with 53 specifying June and 33 indicating May
64 out of 104 economists expect the Fed to cut rates by 100 basis points or less in 2024, with 43 specifying 75 basis points or less
40 out of 47 economists believe there is a greater risk that the first Fed funds rate cut will occur later than forecast
Major Indices:
S&P 500: -0.55%
Nasdaq: -0.75%
Dow Jones: -0.13%
Wednesday, February 21
Stock Related News:
Amazon is replacing Walgreens in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
Google is introducing a new state-of-the-art open model, Gemma
Gemma is a family of lightweight, state-of-the-art open models built from the same research & technology used to create the Gemini models
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella announced it will use the Intel 18A process to manufacture a future Microsoft chip
Reddit plans to place a big chunk of its IPO shares in the hands of its users
Nvidia Earnings:
Adj. EPS $5.16, beating estimate of $4.64
Record quarterly revenue of $22.1 billion, up 22% from Q3, up 265% from a year ago
Record quarterly Data Center revenue of $18.4 billion, up 27% from Q3, up 409% from a year ago
Record full-year revenue of $60.9 billion, up 126%
Sees Q1 2025 revenue of $24B, vs $22.16B
Economic News:
FOMC Minutes:
A couple of policymakers pointed to downside risks from maintaining an overly restrictive stance for too long
Fed officials judged the policy rate likely at its peak for this cycle
Staff economic outlook was slightly stronger than the December projection
Staff placed some weight on the chance that further progress on lowering inflation could take longer than expected
Fed's Bowman says the time for lower rates is certainly not now
Fed’s Barkin on Inflation:
Expectations of consumers and firms need to converge to 2%
We are looking at monthly and 3-month inflation data, not 12-month
The US still has a ways to go to get to a soft landing
Recent data on PPI and CPI have been less good and are showing the dependence of disinflation on goods
Major Indices:
S&P 500: +0.09%
Nasdaq: -0.40%
Dow Jones: +0.09%
Thursday, February 22
Stock Related News:
Google is expanding its partnership with Reddit
Google announced a new Cloud partnership that enables Reddit to integrate new AI-powered capabilities using Vertex AI
Reddit officially filed for its March IPO and will be trading under the ticker $RDDT
AT&T had major wireless network outages across the United States, affecting thousands of people and offices
The FBI and Department of Homeland Security are looking into the incident
J.B. Hunt plans to buy retail giant Walmart’s intermodal container and chassis fleets as part of a new multiyear shipping deal
Google paused the image generation of people for its AI model Gemini after criticism about how it was handling race
Economic News:
Jobless Claims:
Initial Claims 201k (Forecast 216k, Previous 212k)
Continued Claims 1.862M (Forecast 1.884M, Previous 1.895M)
S&P PMI Flash:
Manufacturing 51.5 (Forecast 50.7, Previous 50.7)
Composite 51.4 (Forecast 51.8, Previous 52.0)
Services 51.3 (Forecast 52.3, Previous 52.5)
Existing Home Sales 4M (Forecast 3.97M, Previous 3.78M)
Change 3.1% (Forecast 4.9%, Previous -1.0%)
Fed’s Jefferson: January CPI data disappointing, shows the path down likely to be bumpy
It will likely be appropriate to begin cutting policy rates later this year
I am cautiously optimistic about inflation progress
Chicago National Activity Index -0.3 (Forecast -0.21, Previous -0.15)
Major Indices:
S&P 500: +2.93%
Nasdaq: +0.30%
Dow Jones: +1.16%
Friday, February 23
Stock Related News:
The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high of $510.13
Nvidia reached a new all-time high of $823.94
Reached $2 trillion market cap for the first time
JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon sold $150 million of stock, marking his first stock sale in his tenure at JPM
Jeff Bezos & Nvidia join OpenAI in funding humanoid robot startup Figure AI
Economic News:
Fed's Williams in Axios Interview:
Rate cuts are likely later this year, rate hikes are not my base case
My view of the economy hasn't changed after January data, things are moving in the right direction
I expect consumer spending growth to slow this year
Major Indices:
S&P 500: +0.54%
Nasdaq: -0.33%
Dow Jones: +0.26%
