HaiKhuu Weekly Recap & Analysis
February 26 - March 1, 2024
MAJOR EVENTS OF LAST WEEK
Major Indices’ Weekly Movement:
S&P 500: +0.05%
Nasdaq: +0.51%
Dow Jones: -0.34%
Highlights:
The S&P 500 (SPY) reached new all-time highs of $513.29
The Nasdaq (QQQ) reached new all-time highs of $446.58
Bitcoin reached $64,038, its highest price since November 2021
Apple is canceling its work on the electric car & will shift team to generative AI
DAILY EVENT BREAKDOWN
Monday, February 26
Stock Related News:
Representative Nancy Pelosi disclosed a new options trade
She bought up to $1M of call options in a cybersecurity company called Palo Alto Networks on Feb. 12th
Google announced it hopes to relaunch Gemini AI image generation in a “couple of weeks”
Microstrategy stock surged 17% on news it acquired 3,000 more Bitcoin
FTC sued to block Kroger’s $24.6B Albertsons acquisition
FTC notes Kroger deal would lower wages, and raise food prices
Economic News:
New Home Sales:
Units 0.661M (Forecast 0.684M, Previous 0.664M)
Change MoM 1.5% (Forecast 3%, Previous 8.0%)
Dallas Fed Mfg. Bus. Index -11.3 (Forecast -14, Previous -27.40)
Major Indices:
S&P 500: -0.37%
Nasdaq: -0.05%
Dow Jones: -0.15%
Tuesday, February 27
Stock Related News:
Apple is canceling its work on the electric car & will shift team to generative AI
Klarna is in talks with banks for a US IPO valued at $20 Billion
Sony is cutting about 900 jobs (8% of staff), citing a shifting gaming industry
Warner Bros halted merger talks with Paramount Global
US DoJ launched an antitrust investigation into healthcare company United Health over the possible impacts of the company’s doctor-group acquisitions on rivals and consumers
Microsoft’s owned GitHub is releasing a pricier paid version of its AI software development tool that can answer questions based on a company’s own code
OpenAI moved to dismiss a lawsuit from the New York Times, alleging the company had paid someone to hack OpenAI’s products
Macy’s announced it will close 150 stores
Economic News:
Consumer Confidence 106.7 (Forecast 115, Previous 114.8)
Durable Goods -6.1% (Forecast -5%, Previous 0.0%)
Core -0.3% (Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.5%)
House Price Index MoM 0.1% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.3%)
YoY 6.6% (Forecast -, Previous 6.6%)
CaseShiller 20 YoY 6.13% (Forecast 6%, Previous 5.4%)
Redbook YoY Actual 2.7% (Previous 3.0%)
Fed’s Bowman:
Reducing policy rate too soon could result in the need for future rate hikes
The latest inflation data suggests slower progress on inflation
I expect inflation will decline further with the policy rate head steady, but I see upside inflation risks
Major Indices:
S&P 500: +0.19%
Nasdaq: +0.24%
Dow Jones: -0.27%
Wednesday, February 28
Stock Related News:
Apple’s CEO says it will break new ground in generative AI this year
Bitcoin reached $64,038, its highest price since November 2021
Disney to go for India Joint Venture valued at $8.5B
The deal will combine its Star India business with Viacom18, an Indian media company
Elon Musk released new details about the Tesla Roadster and plans to unveil it at the end of the year
Webull is planning to go public via SPAC merger that values Webull at $7.3 billion
Electronic Arts is cutting 5% of staff
Honda will introduce a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle that can also be recharged
Verizon announced a new Netflix and ad-free streaming bundle
Economic News:
GDP QoQ 2nd Estimate 3.2% (Forecast 3.3%, Previous 3.3%)
GDP Price Index 1.6% (Forecast 1.5%, Previous 1.5%)
GDP Deflator SA Prelim 1.7% (Forecast -, Previous 1.5%)
PCE Prices Prelim 1.8% (Forecast -, Previous 1.7%)
Core PCE Prices Prelim 2.1% (Forecast 2%, Previous 2.0%)
Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv. -0.1% (Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.4%)
Retail Inventories Ex-Auto Adv. 0.3% (Forecast -, Previous 0.4%)
Advance Goods Trade Balance -90.2B (Forecast -88.5B, Previous -87.89B)
Fed’s Collins:
I need to see more evidence that the disinflationary process will continue before starting to carefully normalize policy
Fed’s Bostic:
It won’t be a fast march to 2% inflation, expect volatility Fed is likely to cut rates later this year
I see risks as more balanced between cutting too early and too late
Fed Williams:
I see growth at 1.5% this year, unemployment up to around 4%
Inflation is to hit 2%-2.25% this year, 2% in 2025
Major Indices:
S&P 500: -0.13%
Nasdaq: -0.53%
Dow Jones: -0.02%
Thursday, February 29
Stock Related News:
Microsoft introduced CoPilot AI for Finance that will be able to perform a handful of common role-specific actions in Excel and Outlook
Owners of Ford & Rivian EVs now have access to more than 15,000 Tesla superchargers across the US and Canada
Intel has spun off its programmable chip unit as “Altera, an Intel company”
General Motors'self driving car segment Cruise saw its internal share price cut by more than 50% from last quarter
General Electric announced its Board of Directors approved the previously announced spin-off of GE Vernova $GEV
Boeing was awarded a $3.4 Billion contract with the US Navy
Economic News:
PCE Price Index:
YoY 2.4% (Forecast 2.4% Previous 2.6%)
MoM 0.3% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.2%, Revised 0.1%)
Core PCE YoY Actual 2.8% (Forecast 2.8%, Previous 2.9%)
Consumer Spending MoM 0.2% (Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.7%)
Personal Income MoM 1% (Forecast 0.4%, Previous 0.3%)
Real Personal Consumption MoM -0.1% (Forecast -0.1%, Previous 0.5%)
Jobless Claims:
Initial Claims 215K (Forecast 210k, Previous 201k)
Continued Claims 1.905M (Forecast 1.874M, 1.862M)
Chicago PMI Actual 44 (Forecast 48, Previous 46.0)
Pending Home Sales Change MoM Actual -4.9% (Forecast 1.5%, Previous 8.3%)
Fed’s Bostic:
It is probably appropriate to reduce policy rate in the Summer
The last few inflation readings have shown it is going to be a bumpy path back to 2%
Fed’s Goolsbee:
Even with January PCE data showing a month of rebound, we should be careful to extrapolate
Major Indices:
S&P 500: +0.36%
Nasdaq: +0.86%
Dow Jones: +0.09%
Friday, March 1
Stock Related News:
The S&P 500 (SPY) reached new all-time highs of $513.29
The Nasdaq (QQQ) reached new all-time highs of $446.58
Meta reached new all-time highs of $504.25
Elon Musk has sued OpenAI and Sam Altman saying they had abandoned the company's original mission to develop artificial intelligence for the benefit of humanity, not profit
Reddit (RDDT) is preparing to go public this month and is targeting a $6.5 Billion valuation
Boeing is in talks to buy former spin-off Spirit Aerosystems
Goldman Sachs removed Apple from its “Conviction List” but keeps buy rating
Economic News:
President Biden signed the stop-gap spending bill to avoid a partial government shutdown
University of Michigan Inflation Expectations:
1-Yr Inflation 3%, as forecasted & previous
5-Yr Inflation 2.9%, as forecasted & previous
Sentiment 76.9 (Forecast 79.6, Previous 79.6)
Conditions 79.4 (Previous 81.5)
ISM Manufacturing:
PMI 47.8 (Forecast 49.5, Previous 49.1)
Employment Index 45.9 (Previous 47.1)
New Orders Index 49.2 (Previous 52.5)
S&P Manufacturing PMI 52.2 (Forecast 51.5, Previous 51.5)
Fed's Bostic says he doesn’t want to have to raise rates again
“Will be longer to get to 2% inflation, I'm willing to wait”
Major Indices:
S&P 500: +0.89%
Nasdaq: +1.49%
Dow Jones: +0.28%
