HK Weekly Recap & Analysis March 20th, 2023
The Week Ahead (March 20th – March 24th)
KEY ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES TO WATCH
MARKET RECAP FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
March 13, 2023
Biden gives remarks on protecting the banking system
US taxpayers and funds will pay no losses will be raised through insurance fund fees.
I intend to petition Congress and regulators to increase bank regulations.
Shares of many regional banks were getting halted on circuit breakers throughout the day.
First Republic, Western Alliance, and Charles Schwab were some notable names.
New York Fed Inflation Expectations:
Inflation is expected to remain stable at 2.7% over the next three years in February.
February five-year-ahead expected inflation at 2.6% compared with January’s 2.5%.
Inflation is expected to be 4.2% in February year ahead, down from 5% in January.
February year-ahead expected earnings growth steady at 3%.
The US Treasury and the FDIC briefed GOP Senators on the banking situation
Silicon Valley Bank was hit with a fraud lawsuit by shareholders over the bank’s failure
The Fed will probe Silicon Valley Bank and release the review by May 1st
Intraday Change for Indices:
S&P 500 -0.14%
Nasdaq +0.74%
Dow Jones -0.28%
March 14, 2023
US CPI YoY Actual 6.0% (Forecast 6%, Previous 6.4%)
US CPI MoM Actual 0.4% (Forecast 0.4%, Previous 0.5%)
US Core CPI MoM Actual 0.5% (Forecast 0.4%, Previous 0.4%)
US Core CPI YoY Actual 5.5% (Forecast 5.5%, Previous 5.6%)
Meta announced it cutting another 10,000 jobs.
The Department of Justice & the SEC are probing Silicon Valley Bank, examining the company's disclosures, executives’, and trading.
AMC shareholders approved a 10:1 reverse split and an expected share increase
OpenAI introduced GPT4
Apple is to delay some bonuses and expand its hiring freeze
FDIC: Bridge banks are obligated and fully capable of making timely payments to vendors and counterparties and otherwise performing contractual obligations
Intraday Change for Indices:
S&P 500 +1.65%
Nasdaq +2.30%
Dow Jones +1.06%
March 15, 2023
US Retail Sales MoM Actual -0.4% (Forecast -0.4%, Previous 3.0%)
US Retail Sales YoY Actual 5.39% (Forecast -, Previous 6.38%)
US Core Retail Sales MoM Actual -0.1% (Forecast -0.1%, Previous 2.3%)
US Core PPI MoM Actual 0.0% (Forecast 0.4%, Previous 0.5%)
US PPI YoY Actual 4.6% (Forecast 5.4%, Previous 6.0%)
US Business Inventories MoM Actual -0.1% (Forecast 0%, Previous 0.3%)
US NAHB Housing Market Index Actual 44 (Forecast 40, Previous 42)
EIA Crude Oil Inventories Actual 1.55M (Forecast 1.5M, Previous -1.694M)
US Senate Banking Committee Chairman Brown: We will hold oversight hearings on bank industry issues
Switzerland has talked about options to stabilize Credit Suisse
Swiss Member of Parliament Thomas Matter: There is currently no discussion of state aid for Credit Suisse.
Matter: The Swiss Central Bank would provide liquidity in exchange for collateral to assist Credit Suisse
Intraday Change for Indices:
S&P 500 -0.63%
Nasdaq +0.52%
Dow Jones -0.82%
March 16, 2023
US Initial Jobless Claims Actual 192k (Forecast 205k, Previous 211k)
US Continued Jobless Claims Actual 1.684M (Forecast 1.72M, Previous 1.718M)
Microsoft 365 Copilot was introduced, bringing AI to workplace productivity tools.
The copilot combines large language models with business data and Microsoft 365 apps.
First Republic is poised to get about $30 bln in bank deposits
Banks include JP Morgan, Citi, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and PNC Financial Services
Youtubers promoting FTX are being sued in a class action lawsuit. Claiming $1 billion in damages
White House: We will work closely with congress & regulators to increase banking sector supervision
Intraday Change for Indices:
S&P 500 +1.75%
Nasdaq +2.64%
Dow Jones +1.16%
March 17, 2023
Silicon Valley Bank Financial files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in New York.
It has about $2.2 billion of liquidity and $3.7 bln of preferred equity outstanding.
Any sale process will be conducted through Chapter 11.
US Manufacturing Output MoM Actual 0.1% (Forecast -0.3%, Previous 1.0%)
US Industrial Production MoM Actual 0% (Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.0%)
US Industrial Production YoY Actual -0.25% (Forecast -, Previous 0.79%)
US Capacity Utilization Actual 78% (Forecast 78.4%, Previous 78.3%)
US Deputy Treasury Sec. Adeyemo:
Our actions have given time for institutions to think through how they will organize their businesses in the future
We expect banks will need less liquidity from the discount window
The actions of the First Republic show that the system is safe.
University Michigan Sentiment Prelim Actual 63.4 (Forecast 67, Previous 67.0)
UMich Condition Prelim Actual 66.4 (Forecast 70.5, Previous 70.7)
UMich Expectations Prelim Actual 61.5 (Forecast 64.8, Previous 64.7)
University Michigan 5 Yr Inflation Prelim Actual 2.8% (Forecast 2.9%, Previous 2.9%)
UMich 1 Yr Inflation Prelim Actual 3.8% (Forecast 4.1%, Previous 4.1%)
UMich year-ahead inflation expectations are at the lowest since April 2021
US Leading Index Change MoM Actual -0.3% (Forecast -0.3%, Previous -0.3%)
Ford recalling 1.5 million vehicles in the US for brake hose and wiper arm problems
Meta introduced a Meta Verification Subscription
The UN Court issues an arrest warrant for Russia's Putin and other Kremlin officials.
Six more US senators endorse a bill to give Biden new powers to ban TikTok
Silicon Valley Bank will be officially suspended and delisted from the NASDAQ exchange on March 28th
US Regulators are open to sharing losses to smooth the sale of SVB and Signature banks
Intraday Change for Indices:
S&P 500 -1.55%
Nasdaq -0.47%
Dow Jones -1.47%
THE WEEK AHEAD & EARNINGS
Monday – 03/20/2023
No economic news is scheduled.
AM Earnings: Footlocker (FL), Pinduoduo (PDD), KANZHUN (BZ), Abcam plc (ABCM), Navigator Holdings (NVGS), DouYu International (DOYU), Niu Technologies (NIU), Puyi (PUYI)
PM Earnings: Bridger Aerospace Group (BAER)
Tuesday – 03/21/2023
Existing home sales - 10 AM ET
AM Earnings: Tencent Music Entertainment (TME), On Holding (ONON), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), HUYA Inc (HUYA), ProFrac Holding (ACDC)
PM Earnings: Nike (NKE), Gamestop (GME), HealthEquity (HQY), Array Technologies (ARRY), AAR Corp (AIR), Enerpac Tool Group (EPAC), VNET Group (VNET)
Wednesday – 03/22/2023
Fed interest-rate decision - 2 PM ET
Fed Chair Powell press conference - 2:30 PM ET
AM Earnings: Petco Health (WOOF), Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI), Winnebago Industries (WGO), Zhihu Inc (ZH)
PM Earnings: Chewy (CHWY), Braskem SA (BAK), Worthington Industries (WOR), KB Home (KBH), Phreesia (PHR), MillerKnoll (MLKN)
Thursday – 03/23/2023
U.S. current account - 8:30 AM ET
Initial jobless claims - 8:30 AM ET
Continuing jobless claims - 8:30 AM ET
New home sales - 10 AM ET
AM Earnings: Accenture (ACN ), BRP Inc (DOOO), Commercial Metals (CMC), Darden Restaurants (DRI), General Mills (GIS), FactSet Research Systems (FDS)
PM Earnings: Amprius Technology (AMPX), Harrow Health (HROW)
Friday – 03/24/2023
Durable goods - 8:30 AM ET
S&P Global flash U.S. services PMI - 9:45 AM ET
S&P Global flash U.S. manufacturing PMI - 9:45 AM ET
AM Earnings: Express (EXPR), Sunlands Technology Group (STG)
