HK Weekly Recap & Analysis May 22nd, 2023
THE WEEK AHEAD (MAY 22nd – MAY 26TH)
KEY ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES TO WATCH
MARKET RECAP FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
May 15, 2023
The EU has approved Microsoft's $69B deal to acquire Activision-Blizzard
EU approval requires Microsoft to offer cloud-gaming companies 10-year free licenses for Acivision's games, including 'Call of Duty'
SoFi is down 8.5% following a price target downgrade from $5 to $2.5 from a Wedbush analyst
May 16, 2023
US Retail Sales MoM Actual 0.4% (Forecast 0.8%, Previous -0.6%)
US Retail Sales YoY Actual 1.60% (Forecast -, Previous 2.34%)
US Industrial Production MoM Actual 0.5% (Forecast 0%)
US Manufacturing Output MoM Actual 1.0% (Forecast 0.1%)
US Capacity Utilization Actual 79.7% (Forecast 79.7%)
US Business Inventories MoM Actual -0.1% (Forecast 0%)
US NAHB Housing Market Index Actual 50 (Forecast 45)
May 17, 2023
US Housing Data:
Starts Number Actual 1.401M (Forecast 1.4M, Previous 1.420M)
Starts Change MoM Actual 2.2% (Forecast -1.4%, Previous -0.8%)
Building Permits Change MoM Actual -1.5% (Forecast 0%, Previous -7.7%)
President Biden just held a press conference on the Debt Ceiling
Negotiators had a productive discussion on the debt, and Biden expressed pride in the administration's progress in reducing the deficit.
The ongoing negotiation focuses on determining the budget's overall framework.
Biden plans to hold a news conference on Sunday to address the debt issue, and he will maintain communication with House Representative Speaker McCarthy while he is overseas.
May 18, 2023
United States Initial Jobless Claims
Actual: 242K
Expected: 254K
Previous: 264K
Fed's Jefferson Key Points:
Data at this time do not support delaying rate increases.
The data points so far don’t justify skipping a rate hike in June.
Inflation is too high, and it is critical to restore price stability.
US Existing Home Sales Actual 4.28M (Forecast 4.3M)
US Existing Home Sales change Actual -3.4% (Forecast -3.15%)
US Leading Index Change MoM Actual -0.6% (Forecast -0.6%)
Netflix is up 7% following news of its ad tier bringing in subscribers
May 19, 2023
Jerome Powell speaking on monetary policy
Inflation is currently above the Fed's target, and maintaining price stability is essential for a strong economy.
Due to tightened bank credit conditions, the policy rate may not need to rise as much as previously thought.
The banking system is strong and resilient, and the Fed has separate monetary policy and financial oversight tools.
Labor market slack is expected to play a role in future inflation, and the relationship between labor market slack and inflation is similar to pre-pandemic times.
Inflation may be more responsive to changes in the job market.
The current policy is considered restrictive, and the Fed is cautious about the lag effects of tightening.
Instagram readies a Twitter competitor for Summer release
THE WEEK AHEAD & EARNINGS
Monday – 05/22/2023
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard - 8:30 AM ET
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly - 11 AM ET
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speak - 11:05 AM ET
AM Earnings: Full Truck Alliance Co (YMM), Global-E Online (GLBE), ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM), Nordic American Tankers (NAT), Niu Technologies (NIU)
PM Earnings: Heico Corporation (HEI), Zoom Video (ZM), Nordson Corp (NDSN), Lufax Holding (LU), Navigator Holdings (NVGS), Transcat (TRNS)
Tuesday – 05/23/2023
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks - 9 AM ET
S&P flash U.S. services PMI - 9:45 AM ET
S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI - 9:45 AM ET
New home sales - 10 AM ET
AM Earnings: Lowe's (LOW), AutoZone (AZO), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), BJ's Wholesale (BJ), Vipshop Holdings (VIPS), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Endava (DAVA), IHS Holding (IHS ), Seadrill Limited (SDRL), Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (KC)
PM Earnings: Intuit Inc (INTU), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Agilent Technologies (A), VF Corporation (VFC), Toll Brothers (TOL), New Relic (NEWR), Urban Outfitter (URBN), Hesai Group (HSAI)
Wednesday – 05/24/2023
Fed Gov. Christopher Waller speaks - 12:40 PM ET
Minutes of Fed's May FOMC meeting - 2 PM ET
AM Earnings: Analog Devices (ADI), Xpeng (XPEV), KANZHUN LIMITED (BZ), Futu Holdings (FUTU), Petco (WOOF), Kohl's (KSS), Super Group (SGHC), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Photronics (PLAB), Dorian (LPG)
PM Earnings: Nvidia (NVDA), Snowflake (SNOW), Splunk (SPLK), U-Hal Holding (UHAL), UiPath (PATH), Nutanix (NTNX), Digital Turbine (APPS), Enersys (ENS), American Eagle Outfitter (AEO), LiveRamp Holdings (RAMP)
Thursday – 05/25/2023
GDP (second reading) - 8:30 AM ET
Initial jobless claims - 8:30 AM ET
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks - 9:50 AM ET
Pending home sales - 10 AM ET
AM Earnings: Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Medtronic (MDT), Toronto Dominion Bank (TD), NetEase (NTES), Canadian Imperial Bank (CM), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Best Buy Co (BBY), Burlington Stores (BURL), Ralph Lauren (RL), Weibo Corp (WB)
PM Earnings: Costco (COST), Workday (WDAY), Autodesk (ADSK), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK), Gap, Inc (GPS), 23andMe (ME), Domo (DOMO), Silvercorp (SVM)
Friday – 05/26/2023
Durable-goods orders - 8:30 AM ET
Durable-goods minus transportation - 8:30 AM ET
Personal income (nominal) - 8:30 AM ET
Personal spending (nominal) - 8:30 AM ET
PCE index - 8:30 AM ET
Core PCE index - 8:30 AM ET
PCE (year-over-year) - 8:30 AM ET
Core PCE (year-over-year) - 8:30 AM ET
Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods - 8:30 AM ET
Advanced retail inventories - 8:30 AM ET
Advanced wholesale inventories - 8:30 AM ET
Consumer sentiment (final) - 10 AM ET
AM Earnings: Big Lots (BIG), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), Buckle (BKE), Diana Shipping (DSX)
