HK Weekly Recap & Analysis May 29th, 2023
THE WEEK AHEAD (MAY 29TH – JUNE 2ND)
KEY ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES TO WATCH
MARKET RECAP FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
May 22, 2023
Meta Fined $1.3 Billion Over Data Transfers to U.S.
An AI-generated image of an explosion near the Pentagon caused brief market panic before it was confirmed to be fake.
China bans Micron Chips, saying they pose a 'national security risk'
Nike stock falls to lowest price this year after rare ‘sell' call by analyst
S&P 500 +0.04%
Dow Jones -0.39%
Nasdaq +0.34%
May 23, 2023
US Redbook YoY Actual 1.5% (Previous 1.6%)
Apple has signed a multibillion-dollar deal with Broadcom to make components in the US
US S&P Services PMI Flash Actual 55.1 (Forecast 52.5, Previous 53.6)
US S&P Manufacturing PMI Flash Actual 48.5 (Forecast 50, Previous 50.2)
US New Home Sales - Units Actual 0.683M (Forecast 0.665M, Previous 0.683M)
US New Home Sales Change MoM Actual 4.1% (Forecast -2.6%, Previous 9.6%)
Netflix begins its password-sharing crackdown in the U.S.
S&P 500 -1.12%
Dow Jones -0.69%
Nasdaq -1.27%
May 24, 2023
Meta has started its latest round of layoffs, focusing on business groups
Treasury Secretary Yellen on the Debt Ceiling:
It is highly likely to run out of sufficient cash in early June.
There will be some obligations we will be unable to pay post-x-date.
I believe a deal is possible to avoid a debt limit default.
FOMC Minutes
Economic outlook and policy firming: Fed staff forecasted a mild recession later in the year, followed by a modest recovery. However, several participants mentioned that further policy firming may not be necessary if the economy evolves as expected.
Policy outlook and interest rates: Some participants in the Fed Minutes stressed the importance of avoiding signaling rate cuts or ruling out further rate hikes in the policy statement for this year. The extent of further interest rate hikes became less certain.
Uncertainties and concerns: Participants expressed uncertainties about the extent of the impact of banking sector stress on economic activity. They also acknowledged concerns about high and declining inflation and the potential risks posed by the federal debt limit.
Nvidia earnings:
Q1 revenue was $7.19 billion, estimated at $6.51 billion.
Adjusted EPS $1.09, estimated $0.92
Data center revenue $4.28b, est. $3.91b
Gaming revenue $2.24b, est. $1.988
Adjusted gross margin 66.8%, est. 66.6%
Sees 2Q revenue $11.00b plus or minus 28, est. $7.18b
S&P 500 -0.72%
Dow Jones -0.79%
Nasdaq -0.51%
May 25, 2023
US Initial Jobless Claims Actual 229k (Forecast 245k, Previous 242k)
US Continued Jobless Claims Actual 1.794M (Forecast 1.8M, Previous 1.799M)
US GDP QoQ 2nd Estimate Actual 1.3% (Forecast 1.1%, Previous 1.1%)
US GDP Deflator Prelim Actual 4.2% (Forecast 4%, Previous 4.0%)
US PCE Prices Prelim Actual 4.2% (Forecast -, Previous 4.2%)
US Core PCE Prices Prelim Actual 5.0% (Forecast 4.9%, Previous 4.9%)
US Pending Homes Index Actual 78.9 (Previous 78.9)
US Pending Home Sales Change MoM Actual 0.0% (Forecast 1%, Previous -5.2%)
Key Highlights
Pending home sales were unchanged in April
Month over month, contract signings improved in three US regions but dropped in the Northeast
S&P 500 +0.87%
Dow Jones -0.08%
Nasdaq +2.43%
May 26, 2023
US Durable Goods Actual 1.1% (Forecast -1%, Previous 3.2%)
US Core Durable Goods Actual -0.2% (Forecast -0.1%, Previous 0.2%)
US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv. Actual -0.2% (Forecast 0%, Previous 0.0%)
US Consumer Spending MoM Actual 0.8% (Forecast 0.5%, Previous 0.0%)
PCE Data:
Core Price Index MoM Actual 0.4% (Forecast 0.3%)
Price Index MoM Actual 0.4% (Forecast 0.3%)
Core Price Index YoY Actual 4.7% (Forecast 4.6%)
Price Index YoY Actual 4.4% (Forecast 4.3%)
University Michigan Data:
Sentiment Final Actual 59.2 (Forecast 58)
Expectations Final Actual 55.4 (Previous 53.4)
1 Yr Inflation Final Actual 4.2% (Forecast 4.5%)
5 Yr Inflation Final Actual 3.1% (Forecast 3.1%)
Conditions Final Actual 64.9 (Previous 64.5)
S&P 500 +1.30%
Dow Jones +0.94%
Nasdaq +2.56%
THE WEEK AHEAD & EARNINGS
Monday – 05/29/2023
Memorial Day Holiday
AM Earnings: None scheduled
PM Earnings: None scheduled
Tuesday – 05/30/2023
S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) - 9 AM ET
Consumer confidence - 10 AM ET
Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks - 1 PM ET
AM Earnings: Gaotu Techedu (GOTU), Elbit Systems (ESLT), Skyline Corp (SKY), Carlyle Group (CG)
PM Earnings: HP Inc (HPQ), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), U-Haul Holding Company (UHAL), Box, Inc (BOX), Ambarella (AMBA), JOYY (YY), Noah Holdings (NOAH)
Wednesday – 05/31/2023
ADP employment - 8:15 AM ET
Chicago Business Barometer - 9:45 AM ET
Job openings - 10 AM ET
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks - 12:30 PM ET
Federal Reserve Beige Book - 2 PM ET
AM Earnings: Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Cae Inc (CAE), Capri Holdings (CPRI), Donaldson Company (DCI), Chindata Group Holdings (CD), Ehang Holdings (EH)
PM Earnings: Salesforce (CRM), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Veeva Systems (VEEV), NetApp (NTAP), Okta Inc (OKTA), Chewy (CHWY), Pure Storage (PSTG), Descartes Systems Group (DSGX), PVH Corp (PVH), C3.ai (AI)
Thursday – 06/01/2023
Initial jobless claims - 8:30 AM ET
U.S. productivity - 8:30 AM ET
IS&P U.S. manufacturing PMI - 9:45 AM ET
ISM manufacturing - 10 AM ET
Construction spending - 10 AM ET
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks - 1 PM ET
AM Earnings: Dollar General Corp (DG), Hormel Foods Corp (HRL), Bilibili (BILI), Macy's (M), QuantaSing Group (QSG), BRP Inc (DOOO), Conn's (CONN)
PM Earnings: Broadcom (AVGO), lululemon (LULU), MongoDB (MDB), The Cooper Companies (COO), Zscaler (ZS), Samsara (IOT), Asana (ASAN), ChargePoint (CHPT), Five Below (FIVE), PagerDuty (PD)
Friday – 06/02/2023
U.S. employment report - 8:30 AM ET
U.S. unemployment rate - 8:30 AM ET
U.S. hourly wages - 8:30 AM ET
Hourly wages year over year - 8:30 AM ET
AM Earnings: None scheduled
