HK Weekly Recap & Analysis June 5th, 2023
THE WEEK AHEAD (JUNE 5TH – JUNE 9TH)
KEY ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES TO WATCH
MARKET RECAP FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
May 29, 2023
Market was closed
May 30, 2023
Nvidia has become the 9th stock ever to top $1 trillion market value
US CB Consumer Confidence Actual 102.3 (Forecast 99, Previous 101.3)
Richmond Fed President Barkin:
Fed's Barkin warns of stubborn inflation, as businesses are willing to raise prices until demand declines.
Some sectors cool while others remain vibrant. Relying solely on rate hikes for control is challenging.
Fed's Barkin closely monitors falling demand and dismisses wage increase risk.
Regardless of analysis, inflation remains persistently high. Bank loan volumes hold up amid selectivity.
Barkin highlights the surprise potential of zero rates in future recessions.
Stable and neutral interest rates are desired for extended periods to support a healthy economy.
May 31, 2023
US Chicago PMI Actual 40.4 (Forecast 47.2, Previous 48.6)
US JOLTS Job Openings Actual 10.103M (Forecast 9.4M, Previous 9.590M)
US rate futures price in 71% chance of June rate hike after JOLTS data vs roughly more than 60% late Tuesday.
Fed members discussed possibly skipping a rate hike during the June FOMC meeting. The Fed emphasized that this would not be a “pause” but skipping one meeting.
The Debt-Ceiling Bill was passed in the House
June 1, 2023
US Initial Jobless Claims Actual 232k (Forecast 235k, Previous 229k)
US Continued Jobless Claims Actual 1.795M (Forecast 1.8M, Previous 1.794M)
Dollar General is down 16% following earnings and at a 3-year low
US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final Actual 48.4 (Forecast 48.5, Previous 48.5)
US ISM Manufacturing PMI Actual 46.9 (Forecast 47)
US Construction Spending MoM Actual 1.2% (Forecast 0.2%)
US ISM Mfg. New Orders Index Actual 42.6 (Previous 45.7)
US ISM Mfg. Prices Paid Actual 44.2 (Forecast 52.3)
US ISM Mfg. Employment Index Actual 51.4 (Previous 50.2)
Meta just introduced the Meta Quest 3 Headset
Fed Harker's Expectations:
I expect inflation to fall to around 3.5% this year, 2.5% next year, and reach Fed's 2% target in 2025.
I project 2023 GDP growth below 1% and the unemployment rate to rise to 4.4%.
US Senate votes to block President Biden's $400 billion student loan relief program.
June 2, 2023
US Unemployment Rate Actual 3.7% (Forecast 3.5%, Previous 3.4%)
US Labor Force Participation Actual 62.6% (Forecast 62.6%, Previous 62.6%)
US Average Workweek Hrs Actual 34.3 (Forecast 34.4, Previous 34.4)
US Nonfarm Payrolls Actual 339k (Forecast 195k, Previous 253k)
US Manufacturing Payrolls Actual -2k (Forecast 5k, Previous 11k)
US Private Payrolls Actual 283k (Forecast 165k, Previous 230k)
US Average Earnings MoM Actual 0.3% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.5%)
Amazon is in talks with Verizon, T-Mobile, and Dish Network to provide a low-cost mobile service
THE WEEK AHEAD & EARNINGS
Monday – 06/05/2023
S&P U.S. services PMI - 9:45 AM ET
Factory Order - 10 AM ET
ISM Service - 10 AM ET
AM Earnings: Science Applications (SAIC)
PM Earnings: GitLab (GTLB), HealthEquity (HQY), IDT Corporation (IDT), Sprinklr (CXM)
Tuesday – 06/06/2023
No economic event scheduled
AM Earnings: ABM Industries (ABM), Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO), Ciena Corp (CIEN), Core & Main (CNM), Ferguson (FERG), JM Smucker (SJM), THOR Industries (THOR), Hello Group (MOMO), Chico's FAS Inc (CHS)
PM Earnings: Caseys General Stores (CASY), Dave & Buster's (PLAY), Yext, Inc (YEXT), Couchbase (BASE)
Wednesday – 06/07/2023
US Trade deficit - 8:30 AM ET
Consumer credit - 3 PM ET
AM Earnings: Campbell Soup (CPB), J. Jill (JILL), Lovesac Company (LOVE), United Natural Foods (UNFI), Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI), Vera Bradley (VRA)
PM Earnings: Trip.com (TCOM), Gamestop (GME), Smartsheet (SMAR), HashiCorp (HCP), Greif (GEF), Verint Systems (VRNT), Semtech Corp (SMTC), Tuya Inc (TUYA)
Thursday – 06/08/2023
Initial jobless claims - 8:30 AM ET
Wholesale inventories - 10 AM ET
AM Earnings: Toro Company (TTC), Signet Jewelers (SIG), Jiayin Group (JFIN), SecureWorks (SCWX), REV Group (REVG), Designer Brands (DBI)
PM Earnings: DocuSign (DOCU), Vail Resorts (MTN), Braze, Inc (BRZE), The Duckhorn Portfolio (NAPA), Planet Labs (PL), Mission Produce (AVO)
Friday – 06/09/2023
No economic event scheduled
AM Earnings: NIO (NIO)
