HK Weekly Recap & Analysis June 26th, 2023
THE WEEK AHEAD (JUNE 26TH – JUNE 30th)
KEY ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES TO WATCH
MARKET RECAP FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
June 19, 2023
Juneteenth Holiday
June 20, 2023
US Housing Starts Number Actual 1.631M (Forecast 1.4M, Previous 1.401M)
US Housing Starts Change MoM Actual 21.7% (Forecast -0.1%, Previous 2.2%)
Tesla up nearly 2% following news that Rivian will adopt the North American Charging Standard and utilize Tesla's Supercharger network. Rivian was up 6%.
Eli Lilly to buy immunology drug developer Dice for $2.4 billion
June 21, 2023
FTC files lawsuit against Amazon for enrolling consumers in amazon prime without consent
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Testimony to the House on monetary policy and economic conditions:
Rate Increase: Powell suggests a potential rate increase, but at a more moderate pace, as the initial speed is now less crucial.
Housing and Inflation: Powell notes that housing supply and demand are aligning, which is expected to bring down housing inflation. There is also uncertainty about the lags resulting from monetary policy.
Labor Market: Powell acknowledges significant labor shortages and highlights the strong influence of the labor market on the overall economy.
Balance Sheet and Capital Requirements: The Fed is working to reduce the balance sheet and avoid its growth in every cycle. Powell discusses the possibility of increased capital requirements for banks, particularly the largest ones.
Stablecoins and Regulation: Powell recognizes stablecoins as money and emphasizes the importance of transparent, consistent, and non-volatile regulations. Leaving the Fed with a weak role in overseeing stablecoins would be a mistake.
June 22, 2023
US Initial Jobless Claims Actual 264k (Forecast 259k, Previous 262k)
US Continued Jobless Claims Actual 1.759M (Forecast 1.785M, Previous 1.775M)
Morgan Stanley downgraded Tesla to equal weight from overweight but raised their price target to $250 from $200
Existing Home Sales Actual 4.3M (Forecast 4.25M, Previous 4.28M)
Ford is up 1.5% today after receiving a $9.2B loan from the Department of Energy to build EV battery plants
Fed’s Powell said in his testimony to the Senate that he doesn’t see rate cuts happening this year and that it would be suitable to have 2 more rate hikes this year.
Apple hit all-time highs at $187.14
June 23, 2023
Fed’s Bostic favors no more rate hikes for the rest of the year, but Fed’s Daly discussed the possibility of 2 more hikes. The general consensus of FOMC members is raising rates again by the end of the year.
US S&P Services PMI Flash Actual 54.1 (Forecast 54, Previous 54.9)
US S&P Manufacturing PMI Flash Actual 46.3 (Forecast 48.5, Previous 48.4)
US S&P Composite PMI Flash Actual 53 (Forecast 53.5, Previous 54.3)
Bitcoin hit yearly highs above $31,000
THE WEEK AHEAD & EARNINGS
Monday – 06/26/2023
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey - 10:30 AM ET
AM Earnings: Carnival Corporation (CCL)
PM Earnings: None scheduled
Tuesday – 06/27/2023
Durable-goods orders - 8:30 AM ET
Durable-goods minus transportation - 8:30 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) - 9 AM ET
New home sales - 10 AM ET
Consumer confidence - 10 AM ET
AM Earnings: Walgreens (WBA), TD SYNNEX Corporation (SNX), Korn Ferry (KFY), Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc. (SCHN)
PM Earnings: Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF), AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV), Novagold Resources Inc. (NG), Transphorm, Inc. (TGAN)
Wednesday – 06/28/2023
Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods - 8:30 AM ET
Advanced retail inventories - 8:30 AM ET
Advanced wholesale inventories - 8:30 AM ET
Fed Chair Powell speaks - 9:30 AM ET
AM Earnings: General Mills, Inc. (GIS), Unifirst Corporation (UNF)
PM Earnings: Micron Technology, Inc. (MU), Concentrix Corporation (CNXC), Worthington Industries, Inc. (WOR), BlackBerry Limited (BB)
Thursday – 06/29/2023
Initial jobless claims - 8:30 AM ET
GDP - 8:30 AM ET
Pending home sales - 10 AM ET
AM Earnings: Paychex, Inc. (PAYX), McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC), MSC Industrial Direct Company, Inc. (MSM), The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL), RITE AID (RAD)
PM Earnings: Nike (NKE), SMART Global Holdings, Inc. (SGH), Progress Software Corporation (PRGS), Accolade, Inc. (ACCD)
Friday – 06/30/2023
Personal income (nominal) - 8:30 AM ET
Personal spending (nominal) - 8:30 AM ET
PCE index - 8:30 AM ET
Core PCE index - 8:30 AM ET
PCE (year-over-year) - 8:30 AM ET
Core PCE (year-over-year) - 8:30 AM ET
Chicago Business Barometer - 9:45 AM ET
Consumer sentiment (final) - 10 AM ET
AM Earnings: Constellation Brands Inc (STZ)
