HaiKhuu Weekly Recap
July 24 - July 28, 2023
MAJOR EVENTS OF LAST WEEK
Major Indices’ Weekly Movement:
S&P 500 +0.79%
Nasdaq +1.84%
Dow Jones +0.53%
Highlights:
FOMC raised interest rates by 0.25%
US Interest Rate Decision Actual 5.5% (Forecast 5.5%, Previous 5.25%)
AMD announced it will invest ~$400 million to expand in India over the next five years
Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations
DAILY EVENT BREAKDOWN
Monday, July 24
Disney is weighing the decision to delay 2023 movies to next year, given the writers/actor strike continues
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman launched a crypto project, "Worldcoin" that requires an eye scan to get in
US S&P PMI Flash Data:
Services 52.4 (Forecast 54, Previous 54.4)
Manufacturing 49 (Forecast 46.2, Previous 46.3)
Composite 52 (Forecast 53, Previous 53.2)
A strong majority of business economists now believe the United States will enter a recession within the next 12 months - NABE Survey
UBS has agreed to pay US and UK regulators ~$387 million in fines related to conduct at Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse engaged in “unsafe and unsound counterparty credit risk management practices” related to its dealings with collapsed investment firm Archegos Capital
Twitter has officially started to rebrand the website to X
Major Indices:
S&P 500 +0.45%
Nasdaq +0.16%
Dow Jones +0.55%
Tuesday, July 25
IMF forecasts 2023 US growth at 1.8% vs 1.6% in April and 2024 growth seen at 1.0% vs 1.1%
IMF: The US Fed and BoE are expected to raise interest rates by more than assumed in April before cutting them in 2024
IMF expects global growth of 3.0%
Amazon agrees to acquire iRobot at $51.75/share, revised from $61
US CB Consumer Confidence Actual 117 (Forecast 112, Previous 109.7)
"Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations" - Chief Economist at The Conference Board
Teamsters reached a tentative agreement for UPS workers
Microsoft Earnings:
EPS of $2.69, beating expectations of $2.54
Revenue of $56.2B, beating expectations of $55.4B
Alphabet (Google)Earnings:
EPS of $1.44, beating expectations of $1.32
Revenue of $74.6B, beating expectations of $72.8B
Banc of California to buy PacWest in an all-stock deal
Major Indices:
S&P 500 +0.27%
Nasdaq +0.68%
Dow Jones +0.07%
Wednesday, July 26
Microsoft announced it will be integrating with PayPal's Pay Later system
Federal regulators want to impose new guardrails on the way retail investment firms such as Robinhood Markets use advanced analytics to encourage customers to trade
Lockheed Martin was awarded a contract to develop nuclear-powered spacecraft
US New Home Sales
Units Actual 0.697M (Forecast 0.725M, Previous 0.763M)
Change MoM Actual -8.0% (Forecast -5%, Previous 12.2%)
June median home sale price $415,400 (-4.0% from June 2022)
Meta Earnings:
EPS of $2.98, beating expectations of $2.89
Revenue of $32B, beating expectations of $31B
FOMC Interest Rate Decision
US Interest Rate Decision Actual 5.5% (Forecast 5.5%, Previous 5.25%)
.25% interest rate hike
Fed's Powell emphasizes the importance of price stability for achieving a strong labor market
The FOMC will adopt a data-dependent approach regarding future interest rate hikes
The full effects of prior tightening are yet to be fully felt, and reducing inflation may lead to below-trend growth
Powell doesn't anticipate a recession and is hopeful for a soft landing
Inflation is easing, but Powell doesn't see reaching the 2% target until 2025
Major Indices:
S&P 500 +0.02%
Nasdaq -0.33%
Dow Jones +0.26%
Thursday, July 27
Jobless Claims:
US Initial Jobless Claims Actual 221k (Forecast 235k, Previous 228k)
US Continued Jobless Claims Actual 1.69M (Forecast 1.75M, Previous 1.754M)
GDP Data:
US GDP QoQ Advance Actual 2.4% (Forecast 1.8%, Previous 2.0%)
US GDP Price Index Actual 2.2% (Forecast 3%, Previous 4.1%)
US Durable Goods Actual 4.7% (Forecast 1.3%, Previous 1.8%)
US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv. Actual -0.3% (Forecast -0.1%, Previous 0.0%)
US Advance Goods Trade Balance Actual -87.8B (Forecast -91.95B, Previous -91.86B)
US Pending Home Sales:
Index Actual 76.8 (Forecast -, Previous 76.5)
Change MoM Actual 0.3% (Forecast -0.5%, Previous -2.7%)
Tesla filed a US patent application for "Neural Networks for Embedded Devices"
US Federal Reserve approves the proposals to raise bank capital requirements and modify global bank surcharge
Intel Earnings:
EPS of $0.13, beating expectations of -$0.03
Revenue of $12.9B, beating expectations of $11B
Major Indices:
S&P 500 -0.66%
Nasdaq -0.24%
Dow Jones -0.70%
Friday, July 28
PCE Data:
Price Index MoM Actual 0.2% (Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.1%)
Price Index YoY Actual 3% (Forecast 3%, Previous 3.8%)
Core PCE Price Index MoM Actual 0.2% (Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.3%)
Core PCE Price Index YoY Actual 4.09% (Forecast 4.2%, Previous 4.6%)
Real Personal Consumption MoM Actual 0.4% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.0%)
Consumer Spending MoM Actual 0.5% (Forecast 0.4%, Previous 0.1%)
Personal Income MoM Actual 0.3% (Forecast 0.5%, Previous 0.4%)
University Michigan Data:
Sentiment Final Actual 71.6
Expectations Final Actual 68.3
Conditions Final Actual 76.6
1 Yr Inflation Final Actual 3.4%
5 Yr Inflation Final Actual 3%
AMD announced today it will invest ~$400 million to expand in India over the next five years
Major Indices:
S&P 500 +0.89%
Nasdaq +1.75%
Dow Jones +0.47%
