HaiKhuu Weekly Recap & Analysis
September 18 - September 22, 2023
MAJOR EVENTS OF LAST WEEK
Major Indices’ Weekly Movement:
S&P 500 -2.85%
Nasdaq -3.10%
Dow Jones -1.93%
Highlights:
FOMC Interest Rate Decision:
Interest Rate Decision Actual 5.5% (Forecast 5.5%, Previous 5.5%)
Fed projections imply one more 25-basis-point rate hike this year and 50 bps of rate cuts in 2024 versus 100 bps of 2024 cuts in June projections
The UAW announced progress in contract talks with Ford, but expanded their strike at General Motors and Stellantis factories
Disney ($DIS) is developing plans to accelerate and expand parks, experiences, and products segment investment; $60 Billion in spending is planned over 10 years
DAILY EVENT BREAKDOWN
Monday, September 18
US NAHB Housing Market Index Actual 45 (Forecast 49, Previous 50)
Treasury Secretary Yellen on the Economy:
“There's absolutely no reason for a government shutdown”
“I think we're achieving lower inflation”
“No signs that the US economy is in downturn”
Treasury Secretary Yellen on US-China Relations:
"The US needs to de-risk but not decouple from China"
"US-China relationship is the most important to the world"
"It would be disastrous for us to decouple from China"
Blackrock ($BLK) cuts China equities to neutral from overweight
Foxconn plans to double its investment and employment in India, highlighting an accelerating manufacturing shift away from China
Citi ($C) will transform customers’ deposits into digital tokens that can be sent instantly anywhere in the world using blockchain technology
Google and the Department of Defense are building an AI-powered microscope to help doctors spot cancer
Major Indices:
S&P 500: +0.06%
Nasdaq: -0.04%
Dow Jones: Unchanged
Tuesday, September 19
Housing Starts:
Number 1.283M (Forecast 1.439M, Previous 1.452M)
Change MoM -11.3% (Forecast -0.9%, Previous 3.9%)
Building Permits:
Number 1.543M (Forecast 1.44M, Previous 1.443M)
Change MoM Actual 6.9% (Forecast -0.2%, Previous 0.1%)
US Redbook YoY Actual 3.6% (Previous 4.6%)
Microsoft raised their quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.75/share
Disney ($DIS) developing plans to accelerate and expand parks, experiences, and products segment investment; $60BN in spending is planned over 10 years
Mark Zuckerberg announced a new AI non-profit to “build a virtual cell to predict how every cell in the human body will behave -- healthy or diseased”
Amazon announced plans to hire 250,000 workers for the holiday season
Instacart ($CART) IPO’d at $41, up $11 from its pre-IPO price
Neuralink has announced that their first-in-human clinical trial is now open for recruitment
Major Indices:
S&P 500: -0.21%
Nasdaq: -0.21%
Dow Jones: -0.31%
Wednesday, September 20
FOMC Interest Rate Decision:
Interest Rate Decision Actual 5.5% (Forecast 5.5%, Previous 5.5%)
Fed projections imply one more 25-basis-point rate hike this year and 50 bps of rate cuts in 2024 versus 100 bps of 2024 cuts in June projections
Jerome Powell’s Comments on the Decision:
Powell acknowledges a tight labor market and robust consumer spending
Higher interest rates are impacting business investment, but growth in real GDP has exceeded expectations
The Fed remains committed to achieving and sustaining a restrictive policy to bring inflation down to 2%, with the potential for further rate hikes if necessary
Former US Congressman Stephen Buyer was sentenced to 2 years in prison for insider trading
Apple and Goldman Sachs ($GS) have been planning the launch of a stock trading feature for Apple devices, with the launch on hold
Walmart ($WMT) is opening a dedicated pet services center outside Atlanta, with plans to open more locations. The pilot location will offer vet care and grooming services
Amazon announced new generative AI features for Alexa
Robinhood ($HOOD) plans to offer cash-settled options (Including index options w/ 0DTEs) in Q1 2024
PayPal USD ($PYPL) is now available for some users on Venmo
Major Indices:
S&P 500: -0.92%
Nasdaq: -1.44%
Dow Jones: -0.22%
Thursday, September 21
Jobless Claims:
Initial Claims 201k (Forecast 225k, Previous 220k)
Continued Claims 1.662M (Forecast 1.692M, Previous 1.688M)
US Philly Fed Business Index Actual -13.5 (Forecast -1, Previous 12.0)
Leading Index Change MoM Actual -0.4% (Forecast -0.5%, Previous -0.4%)
Existing Home Sales:
Home Sales Actual 4.04M (Forecast 4.1M, Previous 4.07M)
Home Sales change -0.7% (Forecast 0.74%, Previous -2.2%)
Microsoft announced its AI copilot will start to roll out on September 26 on Windows
Tesla looking to make and sell battery storage systems in India
Cisco ($CSCO) is acquiring the cybersecurity firm Splunk ($SPLK) for $28 Billion
Rupert Murdoch is stepping down as the chairman of Fox after 70 years
Major Indices:
S&P 500: -1.65%
Nasdaq: -1.83%
Dow Jones: -1.09%
Friday, September 22
US S&P Data:
Manufacturing PMI Flash Actual 48.9 (Forecast 48.2, Previous 47.9)
Services PMI Flash Actual 50.2 (Forecast 50.7, Previous 50.5)
Composite PMI Flash Actual 50.1 (Forecast 50.4, Previous 50.2)
Fed's Collins on the Economy:
“Further Fed hikes are certainly not off the table”
"The important aspects of inflation, like core services excluding shelter, have not yet shown sustained improvement."
"I'm optimistic inflation can fall with only a modest rise in unemployment, and I see a widened pathway to that outcome."
Fed’s Bowman on Inflation:
“I expect progress on inflation is likely to be slow under current conditions, suggesting the need for even tighter policy”
Fed’s Daly on Inflation and Interest Rates:
“We are holding rates steady to collect information to see if more is necessary”
“It's unlikely we'll be at 2% inflation in 2024”
“Right now I have no indication that inflation expectations are rising”
UAW President on the Strikes:
Ford has agreed to an enhanced profit-sharing formula; UAW still has serious issues with Ford, but they are serious about making a deal
The UAW called for strikes on 38 additional plants across 20 states to join the strike
SEC said it charged Citadel Securities for violating order marking requirements of short sale regulations
Amazon announced that they’ll be adding an ad tier to Prime Video and charging a premium for ad-free streaming
Major Indices:
S&P 500 -0.22%
Nasdaq +0.13%
Dow Jones -0.30%
