HaiKhuu Weekly Recap & Analysis
September 25 - September 29, 2023
MAJOR EVENTS OF LAST WEEK
Major Indices’ Weekly Movement:
S&P 500 -0.38%
Nasdaq +0.38%
Dow Jones -1.10%
Highlights:
The deadline for the government to avoid a shutdown is Saturday, 9/30, at midnight
On Friday, the House rejected a Republican stopgap funding bill to avert a government shutdown
The FTC and multiple state Attorney Generals filed an antitrust lawsuit against Amazon over monopolistic practices
OpenAI is talking to investors about a possible share sale that would value the AI startup behind ChatGPT between $80 Billion to $90 Billion
DAILY EVENT BREAKDOWN
Monday, September 25
Chicago National Activity Index Actual -0.16 (Forecast 0.05, Previous 0.12)
Dallas Fed Mfg. Bus. Index Actual -18.1 (Forecast -13, Previous -17.20)
S&P Expectations:
US growth to slow to 1.3% in 2024 & 1.4% in 2025
US economy is to expand 2.3% this year; prior saw 1.7%
Expect one more Fed rate hike in this tightening cycle
The US imposed trade restrictions on additional Chinese and Russian companies over the scheme to supply Russia with components to make drones
A fire at Pegatron's India factory halted Apple iPhone assembly for a day
Spotify (SPOT) and OpenAI are partnering on Spotify’s new AI-powered voice translation feature, which reproduces podcasts in other languages using the podcaster’s own voice
Amazon (AMZN) is investing up to $4B in AI firm Anthropic
Major Indices:
S&P 500 +0.42%
Nasdaq +0.47%
Dow Jones +0.12%
Tuesday, September 26
House Price Index:
YoY Actual 4.6% (Previous 3.1%)
MoM Actual 0.8% (Previous 0.3%)
New Home Sales:
Change MoM Actual -8.7% (Forecast -2.2%, Previous 4.4%)
Units Actual 0.675M (Forecast 0.698M, Previous 0.714M)
CB Consumer Confidence Actual 103 (Forecast 105.5, Previous 106.1, Revised 108.7)
Consumer confidence declined in May, driven by less optimistic views of current employment conditions and future business conditions, especially among those over 55
S&P on Credit Conditions North America Q4:
Bank deposits are declining, but recent outflow was more measured and within expectations
We expect the slowdown in China to have only a few direct effects on the US economy
CRE loan losses could rise amid higher financing costs and declining demand for US regional banks
Higher-for-longer interest rates and recession possibility suggest credit conditions for borrowers may deteriorate
The US economic expansion will likely slip below-trend next year
CaseShiller 20 YoY Actual 0.1% (Previous -1.17%)
Redbook YoY Actual 3.8% (Previous 3.6%)
Fed's Kashkari put a 40% probability on a scenario where the Fed will have to raise rates significantly higher to beat inflation
OpenAI is talking to investors about a possible share sale that would value the AI startup behind ChatGPT at between $80 Billion to $90 Billion
The FTC sued Amazon (AMZN) in an antitrust lawsuit
Chase UK to block crypto payments citing fraud & scams
Microsoft (MSFT) is developing a cheaper AI that mimics OpenAI
Ford (F) paused work on a $3.5B battery plant in Michigan
Major Indices:
S&P 500 -1.47%
Nasdaq -1.50%
Dow Jones -1.16%
Wednesday, September 27
Durable Goods Actual 0.2% (Forecast -0.5%, Previous -5.2%)
Core Durable Goods Actual 0.4% (Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.4%)
Moody’s on US Consumer Spending:
Consumer debt quality is declining, signaling potential risks in certain credit market areas
We expect US consumer spending growth to slow in the coming months
Fed's Kashkari is open to the possibility that we may need more than one rate hike
Cannabis stocks surged after the Senate Banking Panel advanced a marijuana banking bill
Lucid (LCID) opened the first-ever car manufacturing facility in Saudi Arabia
Facebook (META) unveiled its own assistant and a slew of AI characters, which will be released on WhatsApp, Instagram, and Messenger
Microsoft’s (MSFT) Xbox Cloud Gaming will be on Meta’s Quest 3
ChatGPT can now browse the internet to provide you with current and authoritative information
Kraken crypto exchange will offer stock trading
Major Indices:
S&P 500 +0.04%
Nasdaq +0.23%
Dow Jones -0.18%
Thursday, September 28
Jobless Claims:
Initial 204k (Forecast 214.5k, Previous 201k)
Continued 1.67M (Forecast 1.675M, Previous 1.662M)
GDP Final:
QoQ 2.1% (Forecast 2.2%, Previous 2.1%)
Price Index 1.7% (Forecast 2%, Previous 2%)
Deflator SA 1.7% (Forecast -, Previous 2.0%)
Pending Home Sales:
Index 71.8 (Previous 77.6)
Change MoM Actual -7.1% (Previous 0.9%)
PCE Prices Final Actual 2.5% (Previous 2.5%)
Core PCE Prices Final Actual 3.7% (Forecast 3.7%, Previous 3.7%)
Kansas City Fed Composite Index Actual -8 (Forecast -2, Previous 0)
Coinbase (COIN) International Exchange received regulatory approval
Epic Games is laying off 900 employees
Nvidia's (NVDA) French offices were raided by competition authorities
Major Indices:
S&P 500 +0.58%
Nasdaq +0.84%
Dow Jones +0.35%
Friday, September 29
PCE Price Index:
MoM Actual 0.4%
YoY Actual 3.5%
Core PCE MoM Actual 0.1%
Core PCE YoY Actual 3.9%
University of Michigan Data:
5 Yr Inflation Final 2.8% (Forecast 2.8%, Previous 2.7%)
1 Yr Inflation Final 3.2% (Forecast 3.2%, Previous 3.1%)
Conditions Final 71.4 (Forecast 69.8, Previous 69.8)
Expectations Final 66 (Forecast 66.4, Previous 66.3)
Sentiment Final 68.1 (Forecast 67.7, Previous 67.7)
Consumer Spending MoM Actual 0.4% (Forecast 0.5%, Previous 0.8%)
Chicago PMI Actual 44.1 (Forecast 47.6, Previous 48.7)
WH Economic Advisor Brainard:
A shutdown is completely avoidable
There are risks to the economy, but it has remained resilient
Core inflation is now in the pre-pandemic range
US inflation data is absolutely good news
White House Budget Director Young:
The government shutdown is estimated to hit GDP 0.1-0.2% but could be made up next quarter
Fed's Williams:
GDP should moderate next year to about 1.25%.
Unemployment to rise just over 4% next year
I see inflation ebbing to 3.25% this year and heading to 2% in 2025
The Fed is at or near the peak for the federal funds rate
Blue Apron (APRN) announced that they will be acquired by Wonder Group for $13/Share
Ford (F) executive says 300,000 - 500,000 supplier workers could be laid off bc of UAW strikes
United Auto Workers have expanded their strike to more General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) assembly plants
Major Indices:
S&P 500 -0.23%
Nasdaq +0.15%
Dow Jones -0.51%
