HaiKhuu Weekly Recap & Analysis
October 16 - October 20, 2023
MAJOR EVENTS OF LAST WEEK
Major Indices’ Weekly Movement:
S&P 500: -2.90%
Nasdaq: -3.32%
Dow Jones: -2.24%
Highlights:
The US is restricting the sale of Nvidia (NVDA) Made-for-China chips
OpenAI is in talks to sell existing employees' shares at an $86 Billion valuation
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Comments:
Fed’s Powell indicates that the return to 2% inflation will likely require a period of below-trend growth and some further softening of labor market conditions
He acknowledges that balancing too much tightening versus too little is complicated by a range of uncertainties but commits to achieving a sufficiently restrictive policy stance
Powell states that the extent of additional policy firming and how long to keep policy restrictive will depend on data, outlook, and balance of risks
DAILY EVENT BREAKDOWN
Monday, October 16
Stock Related News:
Crypto and Crypto stocks rallied on fake news of BlackRock’s (BLK) Bitcoin ETF being approved by the SEC
Apple lost its position as the smartphone market share leader in China, with Huawei taking the top spot
General Motors (GM) says all UAW-represented team members will receive an immediate wage increase upon ratification of the proposed offer
Rite Aid (RAD) has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy
Lululemon (LULU) joined the S&P 500
Rolls Royce announced 2,500 employees will be laid off
Economic News:
NY Fed Manufacturing Actual -4.6 (Forecast -6, Previous 1.90)
Major Indices:
S&P 500: +1.05%
Nasdaq: +1.13%
Dow Jones: +0.95%
Tuesday, October 17
Stock Related News:
The US is restricting the sale of Nvidia (NVDA) Made-for-China chips
Binance suspended all withdrawals of USD
General Motors (GM) says it will delay its EV pickup truck production at its Orion, Michigan plant by a year to late 2025
JPMorgan (JPM) raises US Q3 real GDP growth forecast to 4.3% from 3.5%
Lucid Group (LCID) missed their delivery target of 2,275, delivering only 1,457 cars
Economic News:
Retail Sales MoM 0.7% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.6%)
Core Retail Sales MoM 0.6% (Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.6%)
Industrial Production MoM 0.3% (Forecast 0%, Previous 0.4%)
Manufacturing Output MoM Actual 0.4% (Forecast 0%, Previous 0.1%)
Capacity Utilization Actual 79.7% (Forecast 79.6%, Previous 79.7%)
NAHB Housing Market Index 40 (Forecast 44, Previous 45, Revised 44)
Business Inventories MoM 0.4% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.0%)
Redbook YoY Actual 4.6% (Previous 4.0%)
Fed's Barkin on Recession & Inflation:
If recession arrives, it's possible it could be milder than other recent downturns
The path for inflation is not yet clear but sees clear progress
I am still seeking confirmation that the economy is slowing
Major Indices:
S&P 500: Unchanged
Nasdaq: -0.33%
Dow Jones: +0.03%
Wednesday, October 18
Stock Related News:
Tesla Earnings:
EPS of $0.66, missing expectations of $0.74
Revenue of $23.4B, missing expectations of $24.2B
Netflix Earnings:
EPS of $2.15, missing expectations of $2.17
Revenue of $8.54B in line with expectations
Added 8.76 Million new subscribers, above expectations of 6.2M
OpenAI is in talks to sell existing employees' shares at an $86 Billion valuation
Microsoft (MSFT) plans to secure a billion dollar deal with Amazon (AMZN) to provide its 365 Cloud Productivity tools
Amazon Pharmacy (AMZN) customers in College Station, Texas can now receive certain prescription medications via drone
Disney (DIS) owned ESPN, and Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) owned TNT, which together pay $2.6 Billion a year for a combined 165 nationally televised NBA games, are exploring signing up for smaller packages
An Apple analyst said that MacBook shipments will decline around 30% year over year, to 17 million units, during 2023
Costco (COST) announced their CEO will step down, Ron Vachris was elected as the new CEO
Economic News:
Housing Starts:
Number 1.358M, exp. 1.383M
Change MoM 7%, exp. 7.8%
Building Permits:
Number 1.473M, exp. 1.453M
Change MoM -4.4%, exp. -5.7%
Fed's Waller on Rate Cuts:
If we saw inflation coming down to 2.5%, the Taylor rule would say to cut rates
We need to see how inflation progresses in 6-12 months, then see about cutting rates
We still have one rate hike penciled in, which will be totally driven by the data if it happens or when
No one expects any kind of rate cut soon
Major Indices:
S&P 500: -1.33%
Nasdaq: -1.31%
Dow Jones: -0.99%
Thursday, October 19
Stock Related News:
General Motors, Cruise, and Honda Motor are teaming up to provide driverless ride-hailing service in Japan
Grayscale filed an S-3 registration statement for Bitcoin Trust
AMD announced its new flagship laptop graphics processor, AMD Radeon RX 7900M, "the fastest AMD Radeon GPU ever developed for laptops”
Economic News:
Jobless Claims:
Initial 198K, forecast 210K
Continued 1.734M, forecast 1.71M
Existing Home Sales Actual 3.96M (Forecast 3.89M, Previous 4.04M)
Leading Index Change MoM Actual -0.7% (Forecast -0.4%, Previous -0.4%)
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Comments:
Fed’s Powell indicates that the return to 2% inflation will likely require a period of below-trend growth and some further softening of labor market conditions
He acknowledges that balancing too much tightening versus too little is complicated by a range of uncertainties but commits to achieving a sufficiently restrictive policy stance
Powell states that the extent of additional policy firming and how long to keep policy restrictive will depend on data, outlook, and balance of risks
Major Indices:
S&P 500: -0.88%
Nasdaq: -0.94%
Dow Jones: -0.75%
Friday, October 20
Stock Related News:
Toyota (TM) announced it has signed an agreement with Tesla to adopt its North American Charging Standard (NACS)
Eli Lilly (LLY) is planning a clinical trial of its diabetes drug Mounjaro in patients six years and older who have obesity
Faze Clan (FAZE) is being acquired in an all-stock deal that values the company at ~$17 Million
The Russel 2000 (IWM) hit 52-week lows $166.41
Economic News:
Fed's Mester on Interest Rates:
My outlook aligns with the Fed forecasts, eyeing one more increase
The Fed is at or near the peak of the rate hike cycle
It is possible recent developments could slow the move down in inflation
Major Indices:
S&P 500: -1.00%
Nasdaq: -1.26%
Dow Jones: -0.71%
