HaiKhuu Weekly Recap & Analysis
December 11 - December 15, 2023
MAJOR EVENTS OF LAST WEEK
Major Indices’ Weekly Movement:
S&P 500: +2.09%
Nasdaq: +3.48%
Dow Jones: +2.52%
Highlights:
All major indices hit new 52-week highs this week
FOMC Interest Rate remains unchanged at 5.5%
Fed's Chair Jerome Powell’s Press Conference:
We will keep policy restrictive until we're confident we're on the path to 2% inflation
We're prepared to tighten policy further if appropriate
Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY 3.1%, Forecast 3.1%, Previous 3.2%
Apple hit a new all-time high of $199.62
DAILY EVENT BREAKDOWN
Monday, December 11
Stock Related News:
Macy’s received a buyout offer of $5.8 Billion from Arkhouse Management and Brigade Captial Management
NVIDIA plans to establish a semiconductor-focused base in Vietnam
Ford plans to cut output of the electric F-150 Lightning by half next year
Hasbro is cutting nearly 20% of its workforce due to weak demand
Senator Elizabeth Warren introduced a bill to crack down on crypto called "Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act of 2023"
US Commerce Secretary Raimondo notes that NVIDIA "can, will, and should sell AI Chips to China" for commercial purposes
Economic News:
NY Fed Inflation Expectations:
November 1 year ahead expected inflation at 3.4%
November 3 year ahead expected inflation unchanged at 3%
November 5 year ahead expected inflation unchanged at 2.7%
Major Indices:
S&P 500: +0.39%
Nasdaq: +0.85%
Dow Jones: +0.43%
Tuesday, December 12
Stock Related News:
Epic Games won its antitrust lawsuit against Google
Netflix will start releasing viewer data on every show and film for the first time
Microsoft is targeting nuclear energy to power its AI operations
Economic News:
Consumer Price Index:
CPI YoY 3.1% (Forecast 3.1%, Previous 3.2%)
Core CPI YoY 4.0% (Forecast 4%, Previous 4.0%)
Core CPI MoM 0.3% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.2%)
Treasury Secretary Yellen on Inflation:
I see no reason why inflation shouldn't come down to the Fed's target
There's no reason to believe that the last mile will be especially difficult
There's no evidence that inflation is becoming ingrained or that there is a wage-price spiral
Major Indices:
S&P 500: +0.46%
Nasdaq: +0.80%
Dow Jones: +0.47%
Wednesday, December 13
Stock Related News:
Tesla announced its newest robot, Optimus Gen 2
Coinbase is rolling out spot crypto trading on its international exchange
Elon Musk’s SpaceX is being valued at $180 Billion
Etsy is cutting 11% of its staff due to an "unsustainable trajectory"
Economic News:
FOMC Interest Rate remains unchanged at 5.5%
Fed's Chair Jerome Powell’s Press Conference:
While we believe our policy rate is likely at or near its peak for this cycle, we have been surprised in the past
We're prepared to tighten policy further if appropriate
We will keep policy restrictive until we're confident we're on the path to 2% inflation
Policymakers don't want to take the possibility of further hikes off the table
FOMC Interest Rate Forecasts:
4.6% end of 2024
3.6% in 2025
2.9% in 2026
Producer Price Index (PPI):
PPI YoY 0.9%, forecast 1%
PPI MoM 0%, same as forecast
Core PPI MoM 0.0%, same as forecast
Core PPI YoY 2.0%, forecast 2.2%
Major Indices:
S&P 500: +1.38%
Nasdaq: +1.27%
Dow Jones: +1.45%
Thursday, December 14
Stock Related News:
Apple hit a new all-time high of $199.62
General Motors’ Cruise is laying off 900 employees (24% of its workforce)
SEC Chair Gensler declined to say if the agency will greenlight Bitcoin ETFs and repeated concerns that crypto lacks sufficient oversight
Economic News:
Jobless Claims:
Initial Claims 202k (Forecast 220k, Previous 220k)
Continued Claims 1.876M (Forecast 1.879M, Previous 1.861M)
Retail Sales
YoY 4.09%
MoM 0.3%
Export Prices MoM -0.9%, Forecast -1%
Import Prices MoM -0.4%, Forecast -0.8%
Business Inventories MoM -0.1%, as forecasted
Major Indices:
S&P 500: +0.32%
Nasdaq: -0.09%
Dow Jones: +0.43%
Friday, December 15
Stock Related News:
The SEC denied Coinbase’s request for new crypto regulations
General Motors is cutting 1,300 jobs at 2 Michigan Plants
DocuSign rallies 15% on news it’s working with advisers to explore a sale
Palantir secured a $115M contract extension with the US Army's Vantage program
Economic News:
Fed's Williams on Interest Rates:
We aren't really talking about rate cuts right now
The Fed must be ready to hike again if needed
Fed’s Bostic on GDP & Rates:
I see 2024 GDP growth at just over 1%, unemployment at 4% by the end of next year, and PCE inflation at 2.4%
I see two quarter-percentage-point interest rate cuts in 2024, with the first sometime in the third quarter, assuming expected progress on inflation continues
S&P PMI Flash:
Services 51.3 (Forecast 50.7, Previous 50.8)
Manufacturing 48.2 (Forecast 49.5, Previous 49.4)
Composite 51 (Forecast 50.5, Previous 50.7)
NY Fed Manufacturing -14.5 (Forecast 2.1, Previous 9.10)
Industrial Production MoM 0.2% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous -0.6%)
Capacity Utilization 78.8% (Forecast 79.1%, Previous 78.9%)
Manufacturing Output MoM 0.3% (Forecast 0.5%, Previous -0.7%)
Major Indices:
S&P 500: -0.01%
Nasdaq: +0.29%
Dow Jones: -0.23%
