HK Weekly Recap & Analysis December 19th, 2022

The Week Ahead (December 19th – December 23th)

KEY ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES TO WATCH

MARKET RECAP FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK

Monday, December 12th

Wheat futures prices have risen by 2.8% over Russian attacks in Ukraine.
Oracle (ORCL) beats earnings expectations for profit and revenue.
Dow 500 points up ahead of anticipated inflation data
FTX CEO John J. Ray is set to tell congress on Tuesday about unacceptable management practices in the company
SBF arrested in the Bahamas
Today, the S&P 500 rose 1.4%, Dow industrials added 1.6% or 529 points, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.3%.

Tuesday, December 13th

Binance saw billions of withdrawals and had to halt USDC withdrawals temporarily.
CPI data

US Core CPI YoY Actual 6.0% (Forecast 6.1%, Previous 6.3%)
US CPI YoY Actual 7.1% (Forecast 7.3%, Previous 7.7%)
US Core CPI MoM Actual 0.2% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.3%)
Markets pumped after seeing lower-than-expected CPI data

Biden talks on inflation

inflation in the US was coming down, and he hoped prices would be back to normal by the end of next year.
Biden said his goal was to get price increases under control without hurting economic growth and to lower inflation while keeping the labor market resilient.
"I want to be clear; it’s going to take time to get inflation back to normal. As we transition to more stable growth, we could also see setbacks. We shouldn't take anything for granted,"

The S&P 500 added 29.09 points, or 0.7%, to 4019.65, paring some of its more substantial gains earlier in the session. The Nasdaq Composite rose 113.08 points, or 1%, to 11256.81. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 103.60 points, or 0.3%, to 34108.64.

Wednesday, December 14th

SEC Sues Atlas Trading for $100m due to stock manipulation
FOMC and Jerome Powell spoke, and the interest rates rose by 50bps to a target range of 4.25-4.50%
US Export Prices MoM Actual -0.3% (Forecast -0.5%, Previous -0.3%)
US Import Prices MoM Actual -0.6% (Forecast -0.5%, Previous -0.2%
Jerome Powell was mainly hawkish and mentioned that the Fed still has much work to do regarding rate hikes and countering inflation.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) added 0.3% or 103.60 points to finish at 34,108.64 points. The S&P 500 gained 0.7% or 29.09 points, ending at 4,019.65 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq added 1% or 113.08 points to close at 11,256.81 points.

Thursday, December 15th

US Initial Jobless Claims Actual 211k (Forecast 232k, Previous 230k)
Chinese stock delisting risk falls after US watchdog got access. Chinese Stock Delisting Risk Falls After US Watchdog Got Access. About 200 companies based in China and Hong Kong are no longer facing an acute threat of being booted off American stock exchanges.
Market indexes are down 3%-4% after two positive weeks.
Mixed inflation data could challenge US Federal Reserve expectations of slowing interest-rate increases.
Crude oil prices were down around 11% for the week to less than $72 per barrel.
China easing strict covid rules, likely to change policies on travel restrictions
The Dow plummeted nearly 765 points or 2.3%, the S&P 500 fell 2.5%, and the Nasdaq was 3.2% lower Thursday. The S&P 500 is now off 4.5% for the month, while the Nasdaq has sunk nearly 6%.

Friday, December 16th

US S&P Manufacturing PMI Flash Actual 46.2 (Forecast 47.8, Previous 47.7)

US S&P Services PMI Flash Actual 44.4 (Forecast 46.5, Previous 46.2)
US S&P Composite PMI Flash Actual 44.6 (Forecast 46.9, Previous 46.

Mazars deleted Binance's proof-of-reserves assessment, which found its bitcoin reserves overcollateralized

The audit group will temporarily pause work with crypto clients like KuCoin and Crypto.com.

Goldman Sachs set to layoff 4,000 employees to shed costs
Today, Dow down 0.85%, S&P 500 down 1.11%, Nasdaq down 0.97%

THE WEEK AHEAD & EARNINGS

Monday – 12/19/2022

NAHB home builders' index - 10 AM ET

AM Earnings: None scheduled

PM Earnings: Heico Corp (HEI)

Tuesday – 12/20/2022

Building permits (SAAR) - 8:30 AM ET

Housing starts (SAAR) - 8:30 AM ET

AM Earnings: General Mills (GIS), FactSet Research Systems (FDS), FuelCell Energy (FCEL), Embecta Corp (EMBC)

PM Earnings: Nike (NKE), FedEx (FDX), Worthington Industries (WOR), BlackBerry Limited (BB), Enerpac Tool Group (EPAC)

Wednesday – 12/21/2022

Current account deficit - 8:30 AM ET

Consumer confidence index - 10 AM ET

Existing home sales (SAAR) - 10 AM ET

AM Earnings: Cintas Corp (CTAS), Toro Company (TTC), Rite Aid Corp (RAD), Carnival Corp (CCL)

PM Earnings: Micron Technology (MU), MillerKnoll (MLKN)

Thursday – 12/22/2022

Initial jobless claims - 8:30 AM ET

Continuing jobless claims - 8:30 AM ET

Real gross domestic product revision (SAAR) - 8:30 AM ET

Real gross domestic income revision (SAAR) - 8:30 AM ET

Real final sales to domestic purchasers (SAAR) - 8:30 AM ET

Chicago Fed national activity index - 8:30 AM ET

Index of leading economic indicators - 10 AM ET

AM Earnings: Apogee Enterprises (APOG), CarMax (KMX), Paychex (PAYX)

PM Earnings: Mission Produce (AVO)

Friday – 12/23/2022

PCE price index - 8:30 AM ET

Core PCE price index - 8:30 AM ET

PCE price index (year-on-year) - 8:30 AM ET

Core PCE price index (year-on-year) - 8:30 AM ET

Real disposable income (SAAR) - 8:30 AM ET

Real consumer spending (SAAR) - 8:30 AM ET

Durable goods orders - 8:30 AM ET

Core capital equipment orders - 8:30 AM ET

UMich consumer sentiment index (late) - 10 AM ET

UMich 5-year inflation expectations (late) - 10 AM ET

New home sales (SAAR) - 10 AM ET

AM Earnings: None scheduled

WEEKLY ALGORITHM PERFORMANCE & PORTFOLIO

It was a fantastic week for the HaiKhuu Trading algorithms and the long-term portfolio. They outpaced the benchmark, and the market neutral made steady gains even while the market was down about -3%.