HaiKhuu Daily Report 01/16/2024
Good morning and happy Tuesday! Hope you all had a great long weekend as it was a chilly time up in Chicago. Markets are down at the time of writing this report, and this is going to be a hectic week for the markets. We have a significant amount of both earnings and economic news which is going to heavily impact the markets and general performance, so tread extremely lightly and take advantage of all of the opportunities that are available to us.
Markets are still perspectively strong, but displaying short-term weakness. Make sure to practice safe risk management, and make sure to follow the general market momentum. Many people are going to be able to realize gains with ease, while others are going to have an extremely difficult time.
Make some smart decisions this week, and prepare accordingly!
Good luck trading this week, and let’s see what the markets have in store for us!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Support: $472.52
Baseline Support: $467.45
Psychological Support: $470
Daily Cloud Support: $446.71
$SPY Daily Candles - [01/12/2024]
Thoughts & Comments from Last Week
Last week was an amazing time for the general markets. We watched as tech led the charge with $NVDA moving up over 11%, $META up over 6%, and most general tech organizations up heavily. We watched as $TSLA continued to downtrend and have a difficult time, being one of the few organizations that were down during that time, being down roughly 8% last week, but thankfully the markets didn’t plunge 16,000 feet the same way a Boeing Max-9 door did. Boeing was a major underperformer last week, being down 12.6% on the news that a door was ripped out of the side of a plane during a flight, and the FAA has grounded the 737 Max-9 until further notice, but outside of $TSLA and $BA, it was a great week for the markets with a significant amount of potential to realize some gains.
We started last week strong, with the markets coming down to test the daily support, but displaying a significant amount of strength. We watched as markets ripped on Monday as we bounced off of support, and had the largest bullish movement we’ve seen so far in 2024. We started the week with $SPY trading at $468.43, under the $470 resistance and daily conversion line support, but watched as throughout the day we continued to push as continued continued to strengthen. We broke through the daily conversion line resistance with ease, and the markets continued to push as we made the official high of the day leading into close, and ended the day trading at $474.60. $SPY moved up roughly $6 on an intraday basis and displayed significant strength for the markets as $SPY broke through and closed above the daily resistance levels.
Tuesday was an alright day for the markets, conditions were not as strong as Monday, but we did watch as the markets moved up throughout the day. We started the day with $SPY trading at $471.87, down from the previous close, but watched as there was a significant amount of bullish momentum in the markets as $SPY continued to push up throughout the day. We went on to make the official high of the day on Tuesday at $474.93 and came down slightly to close, as $SPY ended the day trading at $473.88. Market conditions as I said before, were not as strong as Monday, and we ended the day down from the previous close but were up nicely on an intraday basis, and recovered the majority of the losses that were incurred during the pre-market session.
Wednesday was a better day for the markets than Tuesday. Market conditions were relatively strong, and there was a significant amount of opportunity that was presented to us to capitalize on. We started the day with $SPY trading at $747.16, up slightly from the previous close, and had strong bullish momentum throughout almost the entirety of the day, $SPY pushed and made the official high of the day trading at $477.45, before coming back slightly into close, officially ending the day trading at $476.56, continuing the bullish momentum in the markets.
Thursday is where some confusion started to hit the markets. During the pre-market session, we watched as $SPY moved up and opened the day trading at $477.59, and watched as $SPY moved up to make an official 52-week high for the markets, trading at $478.12. This was a great time, but after making that high within the first hour of the day, we watched as $SPY sold off significantly throughout the rest of the morning and made the official low of the day trading at $472.26. This was an extremely difficult time for the markets watching such a large sell-off in real-time and made it extremely difficult to allocate into the markets with confidence, but this gave us one of the best buying opportunities throughout the entire week. $SPY quickly recovered during the afternoon, moving up from the low of the day, to officially closing the day trading at $476.35. On an overall basis, there was almost no movement on a larger timeframe, as $SPY only came down $0.20 for the day from the previous close, but if you look at the intraday movement, $SPY dropped approximately $6 from the top, and rallied $4 from the bottom, providing us with an amazing opportunity to trade both directions, but burnt many traders in the process.
Friday was another tough day for the markets. We were green on an overall basis, but red on an intraday basis. $SPY opened the day up slightly, opening at $477.82, displaying strength as we quickly rallied to make the official high of the day, and a new 52-week high on $SPY trading at $478.60. Conditions were looking strong as we were coming up to test that level, but were quickly shot down in the process, as $SPY quickly went from making an official 52-week high to going red for the day. Within an hour of making the official high, $SPY went on to make the official low of the day trading at $475.23. Conditions were not ideal during that time, but it did provide us with an opportunity to capitalize on some bearish momentum in the markets. We did recover slightly going into the lunchtime lull but did not provide us with many opportunities as $SPY came back down to test the low of the day before finally starting to move up during the early afternoon. Conditions were not extremely bullish, but we did go green again for the day, making a relative high in the afternoon trading above $477. We ended the week with some weak bullish momentum, officially ending the day with $SPY trading at $476.68, up $0.33 for the day, or up approximately 0.07%.
It was a great week for the markets as $SP Y ended the week up 1.76%, or up approximately $8 overall. It provided us with many opportunities to trade, and more opportunities to get burnt. Hopefully, you all were able to capitalize on the momentum in the markets, and are ready for what is going to be an extremely interesting week with many major earnings across the board. This is going to be another wild week for the markets in an extremely short period of time, so let’s see what the markets have in store for us and prepare accordingly because this should be a great time mostly with the strength that is being provided in the markets right now.
Heatmap - $SPY [01/08-01/12]
Thoughts & Comments for Today, 01/16/2024
Today looks like it is going to be a rough day for the general markets. $SPY has only continued to come down during the pre-market session, and there is no major economic news coming out during the pre-market session to save us. Conditions are displaying short-term weakness, and there is not much confidence during the pre-market session. I would advise significant caution in these conditions as there is a significant amount of downside risk at this point. $SPY is still above the daily support levels, but realistically, we can come down to that level before the markets even opening. The major level to watch out for today is $472.52. If conditions do not strengthen before that level, that will be the first level of major support to watch out for. There is a high likelihood that if we get down to the daily conversion line support, we could easily bounce and break out from there, but at the same time, we could realistically break down and continue to sell off with ease in the case that we break below that support.
Continue to tread lightly on these market conditions, and be careful and cautious if you are attempting to allocate long into the markets at this time. There are always going to be opportunities to capitalize on the market momentum, but realistically we can also continue to see general weakness in the markets and watch as many traders realize a significant amount of losses in the process.
Practice safe risk management, limit your downside exposure, and if you are up significantly on many positions, consider cutting some exposure and realizing gains while you have an opportunity to do so. Do not get greedy in these market conditions.
This in my opinion is going to be one of those days where I do advise you to simply sit on your hands and not allocate into the markets unless you have the confidence to do so, or the right opportunities present themselves. Forcing a position in these conditions is only going to increase your risk.
The one thing I would like to say, and I have been saying for a while, is that many organizations are heavily overvalued at the moment, and realistically, once the symphony is over, be extremely careful, as many organizations are going to fall at a rate we have not seen in the past three months. I do not think that this is going to happen today or tomorrow as there is a significant amount of strength in the general markets, but just have this in mind as conditions start to shift and people start to be confused about their sentiment. Everyone wants the markets to go up, many want the markets to come down. The Bulls have been continuing to win over the previous three months, but now it is just a matter of time before the bears get their turn. When the markets start to fall, it will be extremely quick and will cause a significant amount of panic and selling in a short period of time.
For my personal allocations today, at the time of writing this report, I will say that I have zero anticipation of attempting to participate in these conditions. These conditions are going to leave many traders burnt and I do not want to lose money in tough market conditions. If there is an opportunity to allocate into the markets with confidence, I will do so, but unless conditions shift, this is not a day to be overly ambitious or force any positions that are not favorable. I’ll watch out for opportunities to trade, but this is going to be one of those days that personally, I anticipate sitting on my hands and will be minimizing my general allocations for safety.
If you want to watch any of my allocations, they will be posted live in the HaiKhuu Discord.
HaiKhuu Proprietary Algorithm Report:
Last week was an interesting time for the performance of the algorithm. The long-term portfolio was able to outperform the movement of $SPY by a small margin, but the algorithm underperformed significantly and did not provide any sort of confidence in any way shape, or form. I am personally not happy with the performance of the algorithm. We will be phasing out the algorithm and we will be contemplating the situation as the algorithm as well as the performance of the newest algorithm are underperforming significantly. I will not be posting the daily positions this entire week for your protection as we contemplate how to move forward in these conditions.
The results of last week are as follows:
Baseline:
$SPY: +1.75%
Our Results:
Long Term Portfolio: +1.8%
Variable Sector Neutral: +0.9%
Base Algorithm: +0.59%
Variable Market Neutral: -0.07%
Sector Neutral: -0.16%
Market Neutral: -0.82%
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, $TSLA, $AAPL, $MSFT, $NVDA, $BA, $GOOG/L, $BABA, $SOFI
Position Opportunities:
Follow market momentum
Take profit on positions
Limit your downside risk
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $KO / $WMT
Long-Term Auto Sector - $F
Speculative Re-Entry - $DIS / $RIVN
Economic News for 01/16/2024
NY Fed Manufacturing - 8:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction - 11:30 AM ET
Notable Earnings for 01/16/2024
Pre-Market Earnings:
Goldman Sachs (GS)
Morgan Stanley (MS)
PNC Financial Services (PNC)
Applied Digital (APLD)
FB Financial (FBK)
Guaranty Bancshares (GNTY)
After-Market Earnings:
Interactive Brokers (IBKR)
Calva Growers (CVGW)
Hancock Whitney (HWC)
Progress Software (PRGS)
Pinnacle Financial (PNFP)
Fulton Financial (FULT)
Wrap up
Markets should be fun on this shortened week, so prepare accordingly, practice safe risk management, and limit your general exposure. The markets can easily break out, but we are displaying short-term weakness at the moment. Many people will realize losses attempting to navigate the markets this week, so prepare accordingly, limit your downside risk, and look to capitalize on the fear in the markets.
Good luck trading, and let’s see what the markets have in store for us this week!