HaiKhuu Daily Report - 03/04/2025
Good morning, and happy Tuesday! Oh boy, I am not loving these market conditions, and things look rough and tough. Conditions aren’t looking the best, and we are still in extreme fear. Hopefully, we get an opportunity to buy the dip and watch these markets rip. Still, after the movement yesterday, the only thing I can confidently say is to protect your bottom line and tread lightly.
The real question at this point is how far the markets will fall before we realistically bounce. I think that this is where we bounce, but at the same time, with the current weakness in the markets, it is hard to say that with confidence and certainty. So please, regardless of what you are doing. Simply do not fight the trend in the markets, hope for a reversal, and once that reversal comes, allocate everything everywhere, and ride the market exposure.
Until then, pray that the markets move up and that this is the end of the selling.
Good luck trading today, and let’s see where the markets take us!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Resistance: $596.57
Baseline Resistance: $596.57
Psychological Support: $580
Psychological Resistance: $590
Daily Cloud Resistance: $592.55
Thoughts & Comments from Yesterday - 03/03/2025
Yesterday was a disgusting day for the overall markets. There was so much difficulty attempting to capitalize on the conditions confidently, but the bearish traders should have printed. Conditions were harsh and bearish across the board. We watched as crypto inevitably dove and watched as remained in extreme fear. Hopefully, not many losses, if any at all, were generated, but just understand that, unfortunately, the large majority of traders did generate losses yesterday.
So, we started the day with market conditions honestly looking alright, we recovered nicely on Friday, traders were optimistic, and $SPY opened at $596.11, we moved up slightly at open to make the official high of the day trading at $597.34, and then watched as market conditions weakened, and continued to chop throughout the morning remaining between $591-595, going green again slightly at the top, but remaining relatively neutral and weak overall.
Then the afternoon happened. Once volume started coming back into the markets after the lunchtime lull, we watched as market conditions weakened extremely quickly, continually selling off and making new lows of the day leading into close. Approximately 20 minutes before close, we watched as $SPY made the official low of the day, testing the $580 support range, making the official low of the day at $579.90, before bouncing back up slightly leading into close.
We ended the day with $SPY trading at $583.77, down $10.41 or approximately 1.75%. There was a $17 range on an intraday basis, and man, oh, man, did we see some volatility. I hope that again, you all survived attempting to trade yesterday, but yesterday is pretty much why I have been screaming to practice safe risk management. Markets only consistently dove yesterday, yet I was able to remain extremely profitable trading the upside in the markets. A little bit of luck was involved, but it shows the true strength of a trader. Timing and risk management are the keys to your success! ;)
S&P 500 Heat Map - 03/03/2025
Thoughts & Comments for Today - 03/04/2025
Today will be a confusing and challenging day for the overall markets. With how things look now, we see a lot of weakness across the board. Traders lost all their confidence in the markets yesterday, and people are fearful. We are still in extreme fear on the fear and greed index, and now it is at a point where we should realistically do what we can to consider the opportunities that are available to us now and maximize our profit potential. I am not saying that we will not be able to realistically recover because I still think this is an insane buy-the-dip opportunity. The real question comes down to ensuring you practice safe risk management, protect your portfolio, and make good decisions.
The biggest thing about these market conditions is ensuring you are not hard-struck in your direction. It’s a lot easier said than done, but at the same time, opportunities will be consistently presented to you. With one trade, you simply follow the momentum and realize gains with relative ease. The other is by simply fighting the trend, praying that you catch a quick reversal, believing that you understand how the markets move better than those with trillions of dollars under management. I am not saying that you will be wrong by fighting the momentum; I am just saying that it is challenging to do with confidence. Despite having a disgustingly bearish day for the markets, I only attempted to trade the upside yesterday and realized a significant amount of gains in the process. Part of it was skill and timing, but a portion of it was simply luck. There is no reason to attempt to test your luck in the markets, and you are better off going to a casino and not lying to yourself about the statistical probability. The question is, are you going to the casino to play a slot machine? Or are you going to play a couple of hands of poker? One is gambling with luck, and the other is skill with some luck involved. Just be smart, be safe, and remain rational at this point.
The second largest thing to consider is that risk management is not discussed. I am sure that you are seeing traders across the board have a tough time trading and finding safe and consistent positions. Anyone anywhere can find a random short-term option contract that has the potential to print an exponential return if everything works perfectly, but no one talks about the risks that are involved with allocating into such, as well as the amount of risk you are taking when purchasing those short-term expiration contracts. I mean, man, yesterday I bought some ITM $SPY calls when I was trading in the morning, but by the time markets closed, those contracts were over $10 OTM and resulted worthless. There was no saving that position, but MANY traders would have dug a terrible hole for themselves and watched them get buried in real time. So, please, if you are attempting to capitalize on these market conditions, be cautious as traders can and will get slaughtered.
For my allocations today, I will say that after yesterday's movement, I am uncomfortable attempting to take on a significant amount of risk. We will see where the markets ultimately take us, but again, if I am honest, I do not anticipate gambling like I did yesterday. It was fun, and gains were thankfully realized, but at the same time, we are at a place where I do not want to take on a significant amount of short-term risk. Tread lightly, practice safe risk management, and don’t be dumb today.
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, BTC, $GRYP, $NVDA, $RIVN, $F, $TSLA, $AAPL, $MSFT
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $RIVN
Economic News for 03/04/2025 (ET):
Consumer Confidence - 10:00 AM
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks - 12:00 PM
Notable Earnings for 03/04/2025
Pre-Market Earnings:
Target (TGT)
Best Buy (BBY)
Sea Limited (SE)
AutoZone (AZO)
Esperion Therapeutics (ESPR)
Paysafe Group Holdings (PSFE)
Genius Sports (GENI)
On Holding (ONON)
Olaplex Holdings (PLPX)
Neuronetics (STIM)
After-Market Earnings:
CrowdStrike (CRWD)
Credo Technology (CRDO)
Stem (STEM)
Nordstrom (JWN)
Box (BOX)
Orion Holdings (ORN)
ChargePoint (CHPT)
Chemical & Mining (SQM)
Ross Stores (ROST)
AeriVironment (AVAV)
Wrap up
Hopefully, markets will be able to recover today, but I am not comfortable or confident in these conditions. Please continue to tread lightly on the weakness that we are seeing in the markets and understand the amount of risk involved with attempting to trade and allocate right now. Be smart, be safe, but also take advantage. I do see an insane dip buying opportunity presenting itself to us; the question is how far are we going to dip, and how terrible are the conditions going to get before things start to get better. But hey, until then, we sit back, relax, and make smart decisions!
Good luck trading, and let’s see $SPY rally to $600 today!