HaiKhuu Daily Report - 03/19/2025
Good morning, and happy Wednesday! Wow, we are already HALF WAY through this week, and market conditions are looking interesting.
$SPY has officially rejected the daily conversion line, and FOMC is happening today. Expect a significant movement in the market as a result of FOMC, the question is in reality, which direction we are going. I hope that the markets move up today, but it genuinely is a coin flip on where we head. Markets are strong but have bearish sentiment in the air, making it difficult to navigate and allocate with relative confidence, and now it is just a matter of continually being able to realize gains despite market conditions not being ideal in any way, shape, or form.
Remain optimistic yet realistic with your expectations in these markets. Gains can be generated in these market conditions, but losses can be generated even quicker.
So practice safe risk management, make wise decisions, realize some gains, and have fun trading today!
Good luck trading, and let’s see where Jerome Powell takes us today!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Resistance: $567.28
Baseline Resistance: $581.45
Psychological Support: $560
Daily Cloud Resistance: $593.07
Thoughts & Comments from Yesterday 03/18/2025
Yesterday was a rather tough day for the overall markets. With the way conditions looked, it wasn’t an ideal day in any way, shape, or form. We watched as $SPY rejected the daily conversion line and remained bearish and choppy around the $560 support, providing traders with no direction and making trading difficult and inconsistent. Hopefully, you all were able to survive and capitalize on yesterday, but I know many unrealized losses were, unfortunately, generated.
So, we started the day honestly looking alright. Markets were down slightly, but we watched as $SPY opened at $564.78, down just over $2 from the previous close, and watched as market conditions went instantly bearish in the process, diving and selling off from open. Then we watched as there was disgusting, choppy, bearish momentum until $SPY quickly got into the $560-562 range.
As much as I would love to say that the markets recovered by the end of the day, I simply cannot say that. The markets did not do anything realistically between 9:45 am EST and 4:00 pm EST, as we continued to hover within that range throughout the rest of the day. There was no overly bearish momentum; there was no overly bullish momentum. We simply chopped in that tight range, not having a decisive movement in either direction, making it extremely difficult to allocate, causing many day traders and scalpers to realize losses. The more confident traders should have had zero issues capitalizing on short-term movements, but the overall market conditions were rough.
We went on to officially end the day with $SPY trading at $561.02, down $6 for the day, or down just over 1%.
I won’t lie and say that yesterday was a good day for the markets. It was a terrible day. I will say that the large majority of traders generated losses. They might have been unrealized, but it was not a good day for the markets, and conditions realistically were difficult to navigate. If you could capitalize on yesterday and realize some gains, congratulations, as that would be wonderful. But if you are like the 99% of others and have a difficult time. It is unfortunate that losses were generated, but that is simply a part of life. Hopefully, you all practiced safe risk management, and the losses generated were minimized!
S&P 500 Heat Map - 03/18/2025
Thoughts & Comments for Today - 03/19/2025
Today, hopefully, will be a fun day for the markets. We have the FOMC’s decision on the interest rate and a Jerome Powell press conference scheduled. Market momentum will be difficult to capitalize on, but anyone who is correct today will print HARD. Tread lightly on these market conditions and make smart decisions, but just understand that markets can take off heavily in either direction and perpetuate either a continuation of the selling that has incurred or finally be the reversal that we’ve been waiting for. I do not know which way we are going, but all I know is we will find out.
What I will say is that I do believe that the markets are due for a bounce. We have been oversold for the previous couple of trading days, and the markets need to bounce from here. I am not stating that we are going to make a full recovery back to an all-time high. Still, at the same time, I do believe that we are in a place where, realistically, we can see a significant amount of bullish confidence in an extremely short period of time. Please continue to buy this dip and grab some shares of some fundamentally solid organizations that you believe are heavily undervalued and are starting to set up and show signs of a reversal.
Just be careful with FOMC today. I do believe that, realistically, the markets will move up after this volatility event, but at the same time, anything could happen. If Jerome Powell randomly throws a wrench into the markets (he doesn’t usually), then we will be in an interesting scenario, but realistically, expect to see a significant amount of chop leading into FOMC and FOMO leading into the event. I believe one of the easiest ways to trade today will be to follow historical trends on how the markets move on FOMC days, but that is just me.
For those who are interested about how FOMC movement typically goes down, a lot of times, it comes down to short-term momentum, but assuming “normal” market conditions without any weird exceptions or external factors, FOMC typically works like this:
Bullish movement during the pre-market session into open
Quick bullish movement at open, followed by a bearish reversal within the first hour
Bottom out leading into the lunchtime lull
Chop during the lunchtime lull
Movement back up as lunch ends and people FOMO back in prior to FOMC
FOMC
???
Jerome Powell
???
So, the easiest ways, in my opinion, to ride this momentum is to scalp towards the upside at open, day trade towards the downside when there is a sign of a reversal, and cover & go long again at the bottom.
Again, I will say that this is not financial advice nor a signal to buy or sell any position. This is “typically” what happens in the markets on FOMC days, but it does not always happen. This might be a case where this works out perfectly again. This might be a case where this does not inevitably work out. So please, just be careful and ride the momentum in the markets while practicing safe risk management. A lot will be made, and a lot will be lost while attempting to trade today.
For my position, I will say that I do not anticipate trading FOMC that much today nor adjusting my strategy to accommodate FOMC. I am in long positions, and I do not like being bearish in the markets. It is just not as fun nor optimistic when market conditions are like this. I will still allocate accordingly across the markets, but I do not anticipate taking on any 0-DTE risk and exposure today. I do hope for a beautiful bullish movement in the markets, though, as I am holding a lot of long exposure at this point!
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, BTC, $GRYP, $AAPL, $RIVN, $INTC, $TSLA, $NVDA
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $INTC
Economic News for 03/19/2025 (ET):
FOMC Interest- Rate Decision - 2:00 PM
Fed Chair Powell Press Conference - 2:30 PM
Notable Earnings for 03/19/2025
Pre-Market Earnings:
Kingsoft Cloud (KC)
Signet Jewelers (SIG)
General Mills (GIS)
GDS Holdings (GDS)
Hutchison China Meditech (HCM)
H World Group (HTHT)
J.Jill (JILL)
Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)
After-Market Earnings:
Five Below (FIVE)
FrontView REIT (FVR)
North American Construction (NOA)
Aeva Technologies (AEVA)
Gold Royalty (GROY)
Worthington Steel (WS)
Wrap up
Hopefully, Jerome Powell is able to cause the markets to break out, and we see the reversal that we’ve all been waiting for. Please be smart and safe while actively trading, make sure that you are practicing safe risk management, and limit your downside as I do believe we will see many more traders get wiped out over the next couple of days, and see what the rest of the day has in store for us.
Good luck trading, and let’s see how Jerome treats the markets!