HaiKhuu Daily Report - 04/07/2025
Good morning, and rest in peace. $SPY has officially reached a bear market at the time of writing this report. Welcome one, and welcome all to hell week round 6. The number to keep in your mind is $SPY $490.58.
This is not a good look, and it appears that the markets are not enjoying these conditions, and organizations are looking extremely weak. As I said on Friday, the trade war has officially started.
Traders will be confused and conflicted here in the short term, and many traders will generate life-changing money. The Bears will print today, while the Bulls will be extremely hurt and confused. Inevitably, when we bounce, it will be an extremely short-lived beautiful time, but until then, we get to sit back and generally panic that the markets are coming down.
Please practice risk management and tread lightly on today. Just know that the markets can and will likely continue to come down today. I am not attempting to scare any of you during this time, as that is not what I am trying to do; I just want to warn and protect you all during this VOLATILE time. Tread exceptionally lightly, and pray that $SPY can recover today.
Feel free to check out our Weekly Preview! Earnings season has not started yet, but it is about to start, with Financials leading the way into earnings this Friday!
Good luck trading today and this week because we will need it.
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Resistance: $540.74
Baseline Resistance: $551.20
Psychological Resistance: $500
Daily Cloud Resistance: $594.29
Thoughts & Comments from Last Week
Last week was one of the worst weeks I’ve ever seen in the markets, causing a significant amount of bearish momentum, fear, and panic. We had multiple record-breaking days, watching as $SPY had its 2nd worst trading day ever (point-wise) multiple times. We missed making the largest single-day point movement into close, missing the overall record by less than 2 points on /ES. Regardless, markets have been absolutely slaughtered, and we are about to make a new low for the year. Hopefully, you all were able to survive last week, and hopefully, some of you realized a significant amount of gains in the process!
So, we started the week with the markets honestly looking beautiful. $SPY opened at $549.83 to start the week and watched as the markets moved up slightly over the following days. Conditions were not ideal in any way, shape, or form as $SPY did gap down during the pre-market session on Monday, but at the same time, we were in a place where, realistically, markets did recover over the next couple of days, watching as $SPY went on to make the high of the week on Wednesday, trading at $567.42.
But as you all know, that is when things started to get messy. We were showing relative strength and opportunity, but despite this, markets gapped down heavily after hours on Wednesday, and then that was the start of everything. Markets went on and dove on Thursday, opening the day at $545 and ending the day at $536, dropping almost $30 in the process, securing its spot as the 2nd worst trading day in history.
It was an absolutely disgusting day, which was followed up on Friday with $SPY gapping down heavily again, opening the day at $523 and ending the day with $SPY trading at $505.28. Traders were obliterated during that time, and the large majority of traders generated unrealized or realized losses in the process. $SPY dropped $31.42 on Friday, dropping 5.85%, and we officially dropped $44 from open on Monday, down 8%, but watched as $SPY dropped almost $60 from the top on Wednesday, meaning we dropped over 10% in just two days.
Wow. Wow, wow, wow, wow, wow.
I am not saying that people were not able to remain profitable last week; anyone who was bearish should have absolutely printed in the process, but I know that the large majority of traders were long equities at that time, and if you were unfortunately caught in the short term BS of the markets, then that is simply just life. We will see where things go today, but it is looking like the markets are setting us up for a hat trick. So, we will see what the markets have in store for us today, but conditions are not looking good.
S&P 500 Heat Map - 04/03/2025
Thoughts & Comments for Today - 04/07/2025
Today, if I am going to be brutally honest with you, is going to be another bloody time for the markets. As much as I want to be bullish and optimistic in these conditions, it is getting tough. We have officially entered a bear market on $SPY and are displaying weakness across the board. If you are confused about how to allocate right now, just know you are in the same boat as many others. My recommendation for all of you will depend on your market timeframe.
There are two timeframes that traders should be looking for today. Look at the markets from a long-term investment standpoint or the markets with a short-term trading mentality. Both traders have opportunities, but it will be difficult for both to realize gains unless they have confidence.
If you are attempting to trade the short-term volatility in the markets, I would advise you to be more bullish and find an opportunity to buy a dip and sell a rip. However, just know that in these current market conditions, opportunities are looking bloody and bearish. If you want the easy trade, that would be to simply be bearish and short the market. You are following the momentum and trend, and that ultimately will help you at least navigate these conditions.
If you have time to hold indefinitely, though, I highly recommend you continue to hold your positions, buy more strong equities, and just hold, hold, and hold. As long as you are in fundamentally solid organizations, I do not believe that there is much risk here, but better opportunities might appear in the future, so make sure to scale into your positions accordingly. Buy slowly on this dip, continue to buy if the markets continue to come down, and average into positions accordingly. This is a great time to start. This is a great time to add. It all just comes down to what you are able to do, again, depending on where you allocate and the time that you will be invested.
If you are looking for something medium~ish term, like attempting to purchase options to see if we bounce over the next 2-3 days, please be extremely careful. With VIX so high and people panicking across the board, those contracts are going to be extremely expensive, and you are going to be paying an insane premium to attempt to purchase any option contracts. My recommendation, then, is to look for an opportunity to short or look to go long, an inverse ETF (bearish play). Options contracts will be stupidly expensive here, but in the case that the markets do ultimately have another large movement, I’ll eat my words as those contracts print. Options, despite paying out beautifully if correct, are, in my opinion, not worth the risk at this point due to the absurd premium people are going to pay.
Just again, be extremely careful in these market conditions. Things are not looking good here in the short term, but we are seeing opportunities presented to us across the board. Just remember, too, once the markets do start to recover, it will be an extremely quick and rapid expansion that will take many traders by surprise, and as a result, those who were “waiting” to buy the dip at the “bottom” will miss out on their opportunity. Everything in the market is getting back to the point of deep value, so please, just be smart and safe while attempting to trade today, and just do what you can to maximize your profit potential.
For my personal allocations today, I do not intend to gamble actively and take on a significant amount of risk, but as you all have seen over the previous couple of weeks, I consistently say that things change once an opportunity is available. Obviously, I am not comfortable in these conditions as I believe we are in store for another massive movement in any direction, so I will continually allocate time to the markets and pray that we are close, if not already at the bottom.
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, $INTC , $GRYP, BTC, $RIVN, $NVDA, $TSLA, $MSFT
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $INTC
Economic News for 04/07/2025 (ET):
Consumer Credit - 3:00 PM
Notable Earnings for 04/07/2025:
Pre-Market Earnings:
No Earnings Scheduled
After-Market Earnings:
Levi Strauss & Co (LEVI)
Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY)
Wrap up
Hopefully, markets are going to be able to recover today, but conditions are not looking the best. We see where things go from here and do what we can to maximize our profit potential. Please be smart, please be safe, and please practice risk management at this time. Again, we have officially entered into the bear market. Do we have an insane, beautiful recovery as there is a flood to American equities, or will we see a continuation of this selling? No one knows the true answer, but we will have a lot of fun.
Good luck trading, and let’s see where $SPY takes us!