HaiKhuu Daily Report - 04/16/2025
Good morning, and happy Wednesday!!! Wow, market conditions are not looking the best. At the time of writing this report, $SPY has just opened, and we are trading at the $530 support.
Realistically, it looks like the markets are going to continue down at this point. Please continue to tread lightly, but look forward to having a lot of fun. With the way the markets are looking, I believe we are going to see many opportunities to capitalize on market conditions today with relative ease. Markets are showing signs of weakness across the board, so sentiment going into the open will be bearish, but just remember that lots can happen between then and now, resulting in a significant shift in both market momentum and your results.
Just remember, despite markets being bearish at this moment, momentum can very easily shift, and we can rotate back into bullish confidence. Until then, though, please continue to tread lightly, practice risk management, and prepare accordingly for everything. We have many organizations with earnings coming up over the next couple of weeks, so again, please expect to see some more irrational movements in the markets coming soon. So take advantage of today, practice safe risk management, and have some fun!
And again, just a reminder that the markets are CLOSED on Friday!
Good luck trading today, and let’s see where this confusion takes us!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Support: $515.21
Baseline Support: $529.11
Psychological Resistance: $540
Daily Cloud Resistance: $581.00
Thoughts & Comments from Yesterday - 04/15/2025
Yesterday, if I am being completely honest, was kind of a dud of a day. Market momentum was not there, and the large movements are starting to slow down. As I have said multiple times before, the reasoning that these conditions feel so sluggish is a general warning I will continue to make over the next couple of days, as a result of the significant movements we’ve seen over the previous couple of weeks.
Many traders assume that those are how market conditions are going to remain. It is unfortunate as many people did purchase some highly OTM option contracts early within the day, hopefully none of you got burnt in the process, but days like yesterday were exactly why I have been warning against those contracts.
So, we started the day with $SPY opening at $539.61, and moved up from the get-go, going on to make the official high of the day within the first half hour or so at $543.23. Conditions were great, but we continued to chop and hover around that $540 level for the majority of the morning, throughout the lunchtime lull, and throughout the beginning of the afternoon. The markets finally chose a direction after lunch, and apparently the agreed upon movement was ever so SLIGHTLY bearish, as we watched as $SPY gradually sold off from the top, and officially ended the day at $537.61, down $1.50 for the day, and down just $2 from the $540 resistance level. Again, I am not attempting to say that it was a good day for the markets; I am not even attempting to justify the movement. After seeing multiple record-breaking days, yesterday was a relative wash that provided us with some great opportunities to get burnt by chop, and absolutely slaughter anyone who purchased some highly OTM contracts.
As always, I hope you all were able to do well and capitalize on the opportunities that were available to us, but at the same time, with the movement and weird volatility we are seeing, life simply does continue to move on, and so does market volatility and momentum. I hope you all enjoyed the glimpse of volatility and are ready to be bored again until a surprise or a wrench gets thrown into the works.
S&P 500 Heat Map - 04/15/2025
Thoughts & Comments for Today - 04/16/2025
Today will be a confusing time for the markets. With the way that everything is setting up right now, conditions are looking slightly bearish, but with the slight bounce from the open price on $SPY during the pre-market session, there is at least a glimpse of hope that the markets do make a larger movement that we can all eventually capitalize on. I would not be comfortable or confident in saying that we are going to have a large or irrational move in the markets, but I know that with confidence, many traders are unfortunately going to lose as a result of purchasing highly OTM option contracts around open that inevitably expire worthless.
Again, this is not an attack on the traders that like scalping 0-DTEs, I am one of those in these market conditions, but you have to just continue to remain rational when markets are acting irrational, because if you are acting irrational while the markets are irrational, you will be irrational while the markets are normal, and ultimately blow up your account.
If you are attempting to purchase any 0-DTE option contracts today, my warning for you all is to not go highly OTM today or in general unless you are expecting to see another large irrational move in the near future. I have warned about this multiple times, but people who attempt to purchase highly OTM contracts, and are paying an absurd premium in these conditions are purchasing losing positions that are EV- unless they get extremely lucky and catch an extremely large movement. ATM option contracts are going to be exponentially more expensive than the highly OTM contracts, but prospectively, again, your risk reward ratio goes up significantly when you can decrease all risks associated to generate mild profit, than praying you don’t ride your face against concrete, and pray that everything works out.
Simply continue to trade and allocate long in the markets. There is no reason you should not attempt to trade these market conditions and watch as opportunities present themselves. Those who remain passive are doomed to miss the opportunities that are going to present themselves in these conditions.
For everyone else who is attempting to trade in these market conditions, please just continue to follow the general market momentum. If conditions are choppy, which I am expecting, then I would rather you guys not attempt to trade than force a position, but if we do see a confirmation of a direction, regardless of bull or bear, do what you can to capitalize on the conditions with both comfort and confidence.
Any large movement in the markets over the next couple of days, in my prediction, will be extremely large, quick, and momentum-based, which will take many traders by surprise when $SPY only continues to make new highs of the day, or new lows of the day. Genuinely, we can go any direction and go anywhere, but at the same time, I am in a place where I am not comfortable telling you guys to be reckless and take on a significant amount of risk.
If I see any opportunities or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, $INTC, $TSLA, $NVDA, $MSFT, BTC , $QDTE
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $INTC
Economic News for 04/16/2025 (ET):
Retail Sales - 8:30 AM
Industrial Production - 9:15 AM
Capacity Utilization - 9:15 AM
Business Inventories - 10:00 AM
Home Builder Confidence Index - 10:00 AM
Cleveland Fed President Hammack Speaks - 12:00 PM
Notable Earnings for 04/16/2025:
Pre-Market Earnings:
ASML Holding (ASML)
U.S. Bancorp (USB)
Abbott (ABT)
Progressive (PGR)
Travelers (TRV)
Autoliv (ALV)
Prologis (PLD)
Citizens Financial (CFG)
First Horizon National Corp (FHN)
Wipro Limited (WIT)
After-Market Earnings:
Alcoa (AA)
Home BancShares (HOMB)
Bank OZK (OZK)
Banner Corporation (BANR)
CSX Corp (CSX)
F.N.B Corp (FNB)
First Industrial Realty (FR)
Great Southern (GSBC)
Rexford Industrial (REXR)
Simmons First National (SFNC)
Wrap up
Hopefully, market conditions will continue to strengthen from this pre-market drop, and we will be presented with a beautiful movement in the markets that we can capitalize on. Again, just remember that volatility and irrational movements are winding down, resulting in many traders taking on significantly larger risks that they simply do not comprehend, which results in losses being consistently generated. So, tread lightly, be smart, and make the most out of today!
Good luck trading, and let’s see where $SPY goes!