HaiKhuu Daily Report - 04/17/2025
Good morning, and happy Thursday!!! Markets are looking nice at the time of writing this report, being up ever so slightly from the close price yesterday. If you are attempting to trade or capitalize on these market conditions, please be careful and safe because there is going to be a lot of confusion and different types of allocation styles today going into the long weekend.
Make the most out of the confusion. That opportunity will provide you with some insane opportunities to capitalize on the confusion, and that confusion can easily assist you in generating losses. There will be a little bit of luck, and a lotta bit of skill to be able to navigate today with both comfort and confidence. Tread lightly, but make the most out of today!!!
THIS IS YOUR FINAL REMINDER THAT THE MARKETS ARE CLOSED TOMORROW - HAPPY GOOD FRIDAY & HAPPY EASTER TO THOSE CELEBRATING!!!
Know that traders will allocate differently today as a result of these conditions, but we will discuss that later on in the full report. For now…
Good luck trading today, and let’s see what the markets have in store for us!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Support: $515.21
Baseline Support: $529.11
Psychological Support: $530
Daily Cloud Support: $578.82
Thoughts & Comments from Yesterday - 04/16/2025
Yesterday was an absolutely disgusting day for the overall markets, and it is unfortunate that no one warned you all about the bearish weak momentum in the markets. It would have been extremely fortunate to have a report in the morning warning you about market conditions, but it is unfortunate that it does not exist, regardless. It is simply just life. Conditions were disgusting, mostly as $SPY was continually dropping, showing weakness in the process. Opportunities were presented to us to trade, but unfortunately, many traders did realize losses as a result of the ongoing market conditions.
So, we started the day with $SPY opening at $531.74, down approximately $6 from the previous close. Conditions around open were relatively neutral, remaining extremely choppy, slow, and kind of gut-wrenching for anyone who was attempting to trade in either direction. There were opportunities to scalp, but genuinely no great places to allocate with confidence, and watched as many traders did get stopped out.
The official high of the day was $SPY $535, but realistically, that was relatively insignificant for the entire day. Markets did drop back down from the high, and watched as Jerome Powell ultimately ended up tanking the markets at the Chicago Economic Club. $SPY went from trading above $530 to selling off consistently, making the official low of the day, trading at $520.30, down $10 from the start of the Powell conversation, but thankfully, we did watch as the markets recovered slightly into close.
We went from the low of the day to quickly bouncing up $5 in the process, and officially ended the day with $SPY trading at $525.66, down $12 for the day, or down just north of 2%. I won’t try to say that yesterday was a good day for the markets, because until Jerome Powell was speaking, people were falling asleep behind the wheel. There was no solid momentum, and $SPY essentially remained within a $2 range of the open price for the majority of the morning.
Bearish traders who caught the Jerome Powell move did get lucky, but again, it is simply just life and timing out the markets! Let’s see what the markets have in store for us today, and make the most of it!!!
S&P 500 Heat Map - 04/16/2025
Thoughts & Comments for Today - 04/17/2025
Today is going to be an extremely tough day to navigate. With the fact that markets are closed tomorrow, I am expecting to see both an increase and a decrease in trader allocations today. This may seem double-sided, taking both ends of the spectrum, but I am sure once I explain it, you will understand. So, because the markets are closed tomorrow, there will be people who are not religious who ultimately decide to take the long weekend and will make fewer positions today or simply take the entire day off to get their weekend started early. But, on the other side of the spectrum, there are going to be traders who trade even heavier today to make up for the missed opportunities they will “miss” on Friday. I would not say that either side is necessarily incorrect with their positioning strategy, as it is what works for them, but at the same time, I will say that I believe today is going to be a day where a LOT of money is left on the board.
I will warn that I am concerned about the current market momentum. Yes, there is uncertainty in the markets, but at the same time, with both the comfort and confidence some people are feeling in these conditions, I am expecting to see a lot of people truly being confused. It is not because market conditions are less than ideal, but it is because of everything going on, on top of market conditions being less than ideal. I truly believe that the large majority of traders who are inexperienced will have a rather difficult time attempting to trade today with confidence, as a result of everything that is ongoing. Hopefully, life will get better and market conditions will pick up soon, but go into today with the assumption that despite markets being slightly green during the pre-market session, there is not enough bullish momentum to justify remaining irrational with your allocations.
If you are attempting to trade today, as I always warn and recommend, please make sure you are practicing safe risk management. This means not only sizing but also limiting your downside risk with stops and doing what you can to make smart positions. If the expected move on $SPY is $3 (it is at the time of writing the report) and $SPY is trading at $530 (it is right now), that means the expected range with a 68% confidence that $SPY is going to remain within $527-533. Any positions within this range are completely valid, but then the question comes down to which direction you would like to allocate. If you are purchasing highly OTM contracts and are not expecting an extremely irrational move, you will ultimately end up allocating heavily in a position that most likely will not work out, unless you are extremely lucky with your positioning and market movement being in your favor.
The biggest thing, in my opinion, for us to do at this point is to continually allocate to the markets. Yes, some individuals are not comfortable or confident in allocating long in these market conditions, but those are the same individuals who are comfortable and confident with taking on significantly more risk than they simply understand? Yes, you can make significantly more realized gains actively trading in these market conditions, but the majority of traders who do not know how to navigate these conditions will perish in the process. I would rather you sit back, do nothing, and get a 10% return on your portfolio as the markets move up, than hear you cry because your account is down 92% because of poor risk management, and your 0-DTE contract expired worthless. So, again, this is not an attack on anyone, but just a generalized statement and warning about these market conditions and market sentiment.
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, $INTC, $TSLA, $NVDA, $MSFT, BTC , $QDTE
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $INTC
Economic News for 04/17/2025 (ET):
Initial Jobless Claims - 8:30 AM
Housing Starts - 8:30 AM
Building Permits - 8:30 AM
Notable Earnings for 04/17/2025:
Pre-Market Earnings:
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)
United Health (UNH)
Hunington Bancshares (HBAN)
American Express (AXP)
Regions Financial (RF)
D.R. Horton (DHI)
Ally Financial (ALLY)
Texas Capitial (TCBI)
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)
Infosys Technologies (INFY)
After-Market Earnings:
Netflix (NFLX)
Marten Transport (MRTN)
Wrap up
Hopefully, market conditions only continue to strengthen today as markets move up slightly. We are seeing weak signs of bearish market momentum, so please continue to tread lightly. It will be difficult and confusing while attempting to trade today, so please just protect your bottom line and allocate accordingly. Traders should have some fun, and opportunities will present themselves to us. Let’s realize some gains and make the most out of today!!!
Good luck trading, and let’s end this week strong!!!