HaiKhuu Daily Report 05/02/2024
Good morning, and happy Thursday! Wow, we are seeing some interesting volatility in the markets, and things are BREWING over here. I hope you all are doing well and are excited about these market conditions. Apple has earnings today, so expect to see volatility in the market after hours. Markets are up at the time of writing this report, and conditions are at least a little more optimal. We are back above the daily conversion line, but this is an extremely sketchy spot to attempt to trade. As people come down from the highs of FOMC, the markets are going to find direction in the markets today, and that is going to either be an amazing opportunity or we are going to see some extremely exhausting movements. Regardless of where we go, look to follow the momentum in the markets and just tread lightly. Opportunities should be consistently presented to us in the process, so let’s do what we can to maximize our profit potential and realize as many gains as possible.
Good luck trading, and let’s see where the markets go!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Support/Resistance: $503.09
Baseline Resistance: $509.24
Psychological Support: $500
Daily Cloud Resistance: $512.48
$SPY Daily Candles - [05/01/2024]
Thoughts & Comments from Yesterday, 05/01/2024
Yesterday was an INSANE day for the general markets. We had momentum and opportunities presented to us throughout the day, and traders had an insane time actively trading and participating in these market conditions. $SPY had a significant amount of volatility revolving around FOMC and their decision not to raise the rates, which created extremely profitable market conditions for the traders who were fluid and attempted to capitalize on the momentum. It was a lackluster day that was filled with beautiful opportunities to realize a significant amount of gains.
We started the day with $SPY opening at $501.33, down from the previous close and looking relatively weak. Despite this weakness, $SPY remained relatively neutral throughout the entire day. One thing that was spotted very early on, was that $SPY was consistently bouncing off of $500 and displaying significant strength at that level, and providing us all with an amazing opportunity to buy the dip with relatively low risk. We did break below $500 a single time, making the official low of the day trading at $499.88, but genuinely it was an amazing time to actively scalp and trade leading into FOMC. Conditions before FOMC really were not that sexy, but did again, provide us with amazing scalping and day trading opportunities off of $SPY $500.
Leading into the back half of the afternoon, $SPY did bounce off of $500 again after making the low of the day leading into FOMC, and this was an amazing time. Leading into the release, $SPY was looking relatively strong, and traders remained optimistic during that time. Conditions were strong as bullish momentum was building, where we saw a quick push to $502 as statements came out that rates remained the exact same, before starting to break out once Jerome Powell started to speak.
As Jerome Powell was speaking, the markets continually rallied, and made the official high of the day with $SPY trading at $508.18. These conditions were beautiful as $SPY rallied up roughly 1.6% from the bottom. The markets loved the sentiment, but slowly started to display weakness as Jerome Powell finished up his speech and started the Question & Answer portion of the meeting. As Jerome Powell was stepping off the stage though, that was the final nail in the coffin. No more good news coming directly from Jerome, which is ultimately is bad news, and we watched as $SPY quickly sold off consistently for the final half hour of the trading day, as $SPY quickly went from trading at $507, to closing the day at $500.35. All of the gains that were incurred, were quickly sold off, and $SPY went red again on both an overall and intraday basis.
$SPY was down $1.63 for the day, or down roughly 0.3%, with an intraday bearish movement of roughly $1. It was genuinely a lackluster day, with great opportunities to scalp off of $SPY $500, and provided us an amazing condition to attempt to trade both FOMC and Jerome Powell hype. I hope that all of you were able to realize a significant amount of gains with relative ease, and had an amazing time in the process. Let’s see what the markets have in store for us today, and make the most out of the opportunities that are presented to us!
Heatmap - $SPY 05/01/2024
Thoughts & Comments for Today, 05/02/2024
Today should be a lot of fun for the markets. As I said before, we are up at the time of writing this report and above the daily conversion line. Conditions are looking great, and this is making conditions a little bit more optimistic at this time. The volatility and conflicting sentiment stemming from the FOMC’s decision on the interest rates are over, which means there is going to be less uncertainty in the markets, which ultimately is a sign of both comfort and confidence in the markets. We are not out of the woods yet, but I will say that we are not as lost as we were before. We do have Apple earnings after-hours today, which is going to be one of the deciding factors in the direction of the markets, but after this, there are not many major earnings left that would realistically impact the markets that heavily.
Continue to look to capitalize on the momentum in the markets. The easiest way to capitalize on these conditions is by simply following the momentum in the markets and realizing gains whenever possible as a result. I would not advise being overly ambitious, but by simply following the momentum, you should be able to realize gains consistently and with relative ease today. The one thing that I would advise caution on is the fact that we are starting to display slight weakness in the markets, meaning that we will see choppier market conditions and relative inconsistencies with momentum, so remain fluid with your positions and tread lightly. This is a trader’s paradise with opportunities consistently presented to us, so let’s have some fun and realize gains in the process.
The biggest thing to do at this point is to remain both skeptical and optimistic about these conditions. With the movement we’ve seen in the markets over the past couple of days, we are seeing the confirmation of a reversal continually getting stronger as we are remaining in consolidation within the daily cloud on $SPY, and trading within an extremely narrow channel. We are going to break out in either direction, and it is just a matter of remaining both comfortable navigating these conditions and confident in the overall direction. $SPY can easily break out, but there are many resistance levels that it needs to break through to remain confident; the markets can easily sell-off, but there are multiple levels of support that need to sell off before we should start to panic. We can easily go in either direction, but it is just a matter of remaining relatively level-headed in these market conditions and doing what you can to maximize the opportunities that are available. I would still advise having hedges on your positions for the possibility of a market sell-off, but I would not advise entering into them right now, as prospectively, it would have been better entering into those said hedges multiple days ago when we called out hedging your portfolio on Monday. Watch out for $SPY $512.48 and $SPY $496.99. Those are the support and resistance levels on the daily chart that have the most significance at this point. If we are able to break above $512 and remain there, comfort and confidence are back, but if we sell off, tread lightly, as that is where panic will start to kick in.
For my allocations today, my sentiment remains that I am going to be taking a break until the end of the week. This absolutely sucks not being able to actively trade these conditions with you guys, as we were able to call out many great opportunities yesterday almost perfectly, but my sentiment remains the exact same. After taking a loss on Tuesday, I need to take a trading break just to regroup and not over-trade to make up for the losses that were incurred. This is obviously a terrible strategy in the short term, mostly not being able to capitalize on the volatility in the markets, but rules are rules for a reason, and it’s hard to respect someone who cannot respect their own discipline and rules. I will still be calling out opportunities consistently today, I just personally will not be participating. Thank you all for understanding, and again. If I see any opportunities, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, $AAPL, $SBUX, $TSLA, $NVDA, $AMD, $GOOGL, $MSFT
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $BA
Confirmed Re-entry - $RIVN, $ULTA, $LULU
Economic News for 05/02/2024
Jobless Claims - 8:30 AM
Durable Goods - 9:00 AM
4-Week Bill Auction - 10:30 AM
Notable Earnings for 05/02/2024
Pre-Market Earnings:
Novo Nordisk AVS (NVO)
Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)
Peloton Interactive (PTON)
Moderna (MRNA)
Zoetis (ZTS)
ConocoPhillips (COP)
PENN Entertainment (PENN)
CIGNA (CI)
Baxter International (BAX)
Shell plc (SHEL)
After-Market Earnings:
Apple (AAPL)
Coinbase Global (COIN)
Block (SQ)
DraftKings (DKNG)
Fortinet (FTNT)
Amgen (AMGN)
Expedia (EXPE)
BigBear.ai (BBAI)
Booking Holdings (BKNG)
United States Steel (X)
Wrap up
This is going to be an extremely fun day for the markets, so look to take advantage of the opportunities that are presented to us and the conditions that are available right now, and tread lightly on the active sentiment in the markets. Follow the momentum, practice safe risk management, and just prepare accordingly for the $AAPL earnings after-hours today. Watch out for large directional moves, and make the most out of these current conditions!
Good luck trading, and let’s see a breakout on $SPY!