HaiKhuu Daily Report - 05/07/2025
Good morning and happy Wednesday!!! I hope you know what day it is, because if you do not, trading might not be for you. Welcome to FOMC, and welcome to ???? This is going to be a fun time with volatility, confusion, and hopefully a significant amount of profits. Currently, we are pricing in a 98% chance that rates remain UNCHANGED, with a 50% chance that a rate cut will happen by July 30th!
Regardless, I believe that today is going to be a lot of fun, with a possibility of an extremely large movement in the near future. I believe that rates will not change nor impact the markets today, but the significant movement I will be watching out for will be the aftermath and guidance. If the Feds believe that conditions are about to worsen, markets will drop heavily. That sentiment would most likely come from the current state of the economy. Or, conditions are absolutely amazing, the economy is stronger than anyone expected, and we are resilient, but we have decided to cut rates in the future. That would be a dream because $SPY would be PRINTING in the process. So, we simply just enjoy life and these market conditions.
Understand that volatility will be in the markets, irrational moves will come at 2 pm EST, so make sure to prepare accordingly and have some fun!
Good luck trading today, and let’s absolutely PRINT!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Support: $551.92
Baseline Support: $525.09
Psychological Support: $550
Daily Cloud Support: $572.87
Thoughts & Comments from Yesterday, 05/06/2025
Yesterday was a bloody and confusing day to navigate. If I am being completely honest, traders could have made some money trading yesterday, but it was exactly as I warned. Traders wouldn’t be able to realize a significant amount of gains with confidence due to a lack of volume and momentum in the markets. It is just life, though. Hopefully, you all had a wonderful time and were able to realize a significant amount of gains in the process!
So, we started the day with market conditions looking tough. We dropped heavily prior to the market’s opening, and conditions were not looking great. $SPY opened the day at $557.89, and chopped around that level for a while, pushing up to $560 for a little bit before dropping back down and making the official low of the day, trading at $556.97. Conditions did thankfully pick up leading into the lunchtime session, though, where $SPY broke above $560, and essentially continued to chop around that level throughout the rest of the day.
I wish the rest of the day was more eventful and gave me more to talk about, but at the same time, we essentially remained within a +/- $2 range on $SPY $560 throughout the rest of the day, not doing much to provide us with comfort, confidence, or gains. Anyone who purchased a slightly OTM contract in the process did, unfortunately, get burned by theta, but again, that is why I warned everyone about yesterday.
Leading into close, $SPY remained within that $560~ chopping zone, and sold off into the final ten minutes of the day, where $SPY did make a new relative low, where we officially ended the day with $SPY trading at $558.80, down approximately $5 for the day, or down just shy of 1%.
I am not saying that yesterday was a good day, but many people did unfortunately get burnt. Hopefully, you all listened to my warnings about the tough conditions of yesterday and are ready for FOMC to happen today!!!
S&P 500 Heat Map - 05/06/2025
Thoughts & Comments for Today - 05/07/2025
Today is going to be the most significant trading day of this entire month. We might get a random orange swan due to the ongoing market volatility, but in these current conditions, we should expect. Today is going to be the most impactful day for the markets this entire month. With FOMC and Jerome Powell speaking today, please tread extremely lightly. Navigating these conditions is going to be difficult, and many traders are going to generate a significant amount of losses as a result. On top of that, though, I do want to remind you that gains, despite being riskier, will be substantially larger assuming we get a large directional movement with FOMC, and a continuation of that trend with Jerome Powell.
If you are attempting to trade today, please make sure to stick to your plans, practice safe risk management, and be extremely cautious about 2 pm EST. Many traders again will generate a significant amount of gains today. I am not attempting to hide that at all in any way, shape, or form, but conditions are going to be confusing and difficult to navigate. If you couldn’t tell, I am genuinely worried about many people’s portfolios today.
I will say, market conditions are looking strong. We’ve recovered beautifully from the bottom, market conditions are looking extremely strong, and traders are optimistic right now. This is either a false sentiment, read as everyone is preparing to be hyper optimistic before the markets ultimately get slashed, or we are about to watch as the markets absolutely rally from here. I genuinely do not know where we are going, but what I can do is comment on typical past performance of an FOMC trading day.
So, before I get started on any of this. I will need to say that this is not financial advice nor is a signal to sell. I am about to talk about historical trends on an FOMC day. This is just how the markets have trended in the past, and will obviously not predict the future. Please do your own due diligence…
But, typically on an FOMC day, these are the way the markets move:
Start the day strong
Continue to move up after open
Sell off within an hour AFTER open
Watch as markets sell off into the lunchtime session
Watch as markets bounce from the bottom
Watch as people FOMO into the markets into FOMC
FOMC
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Jerome Powell
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Obviously, do what you please with this information, mostly on the way the markets move on FOMC. Again, this is not a 100% perfect prediction on what is about to happen with FOMC, but at the same time, this is one of those scenarios where historically things play out again. So, I am not recommending any of you to blindly allocate because of what I just said, but if you happen to be looking at a position at that time, and what I said matches your confirmation bias, that might not be a bad time.
But yeah, TLDR: Watch as markets rally, short the first pop, cover perfectly at the bottom, reverse, and go long to capitalize on FOMC FOMO.
Again, this is just a warning about FOMC. Anything can happen. We can go anywhere. Markets can do anything. We can easily rally, we can easily dump, we can easily just have increased volatility, and everyone loses. Anything can truly happen after the event, so please just tread lightly, practice safe risk management, and prepare accordingly!
This should be a fun day.
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, $BRK.A, $JEPI, BTC , $GRYP, $INTC, $TSLA, $RIVN
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $INTC
Economic News for 05/07/2025 (ET):
FOMC Meeting - 2:00 PM
Fed Chair Powell Press Conference - 2:30 PM
Consumer Credit - 3:00 PM
Notable Earnings for 05/07/2025:
Pre-Market Earnings:
Uber Technologies (UBER)
Walt Disney (DIS)
Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA)
Unity (U)
Vistra Energy (VST)
Barrick Gold (GOLD)
Bunge (BG)
Bloomin' Brands (BLMN)
Flex (FLEX)
Fortis (FTS)
After-Market Earnings:
AppLovin Corporation (APP)
Carvana (CVNA)
ARM Holdings (ARM)
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)
DoorDash (DASH)
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
Fortinet (FTNT)
Apache (APA)
B2Gold (BTG)
AMC Entertainment (AMC)
Wrap up
Hopefully, these conditions are amazing and provide us with some insane opportunities to trade and realize a significant amount of gains in an extremely short period of time. PLEASE, as always, make sure to practice safe risk management today. With FOMC coming here in just a couple of hours, expect to see a lot of volatility, confusion, and opportunities presented to you all at once. Just know. Traders today are going to make or lose a significant amount of money, so let’s have some fun and realize some gains today!
Good luck trading, and let’s see where JP takes us today!