HaiKhuu Daily Report - 05/15/2025
Good morning, and happy Thursday! Man, these market conditions are volatile, and people are struggling. Markets are continuing to display general weakness, and nobody has been comfortable nor confident in these conditions. If you attempt to trade, tread lightly, as these conditions are tough again. Many traders will generate losses throughout today, not due to them making bad positions (despite that may be the case for some). Still, in reality, these conditions are extremely difficult to navigate, resulting in many traders getting either chopped out of their positions for a loss, or getting stopped out for other reasons.
So, if you are attempting to trade today, tread extremely lightly. Traders will have a confusing and difficult day for the markets, but it will be a fun time with many opportunities across the board. Now it is just a matter of finding the right positions, allocating accordingly, and making the most out of today.
As always, please ensure that you practice safe risk management, limit your risk, and maximize your profit potential today. There will be opportunities presented to us left and right.
Good luck trading today, and let’s see where $SPY takes us!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Support: $572.56
Baseline Support: $539.12
Psychological Support: $580
Daily Cloud Support: $547.52
Thoughts & Comments from Yesterday - 05/14/2025
Yesterday, as warned, was a choppy, slow, and difficult day for the markets. I really wish there was more to be said, but conditions were extremely neutral. Scalpers had opportunities to scalp, but overall, I would say that the large majority of traders did not generate any sort of realized gain yesterday, and things were only worse if you got caught with some highly OTM option contracts. Regardless, we attempted to warn you all and prepare you all accordingly!
So, we started the day with $SPY looking alright, opening at $587.83, $SPY did move up slightly to make the official high of the day right after open, trading at $588.97, and then watched as $SPY came right back down, and essentially remained within a state of neutrality around the previous close price.
For the entire day.
I really wish there was more to be said, but $SPY essentially remained at $587 throughout the rest of the day, having small +/- $1 movements from that point, making a relative high at $588, and making the official low of the day at $585.56. Conditions really were gross, non-existent, and neutral throughout the entirety of yesterday, making trading extremely tough, and worse for the option buyers.
Regardless, after 7 hours of neutrality, $SPY ended the day at $587.59, down $0.30 from the open price. Markets genuinely did not move, which means that we are still in a state of consolidation and confusion. Expect to see a large directional movement in the markets once traders decide the direction they want to head, and then the markets will take us there. Hopefully, we do not sell off, but we will see what happens today!
S&P 500 Heat Map - 05/14/2025
Thoughts & Comments for Today - 05/15/2025
So, if I am being honest, going into today, conditions are not looking the best, and I am advising you all to be careful and cautious today. Obviously, conditions will always shift just depending on general sentiment, and general market sentiment at this moment is strong, so why am I advising caution? That is due to the underlying confusion and fear in the markets. At this point, markets can genuinely go up or come down, and we can break out heavily in either direction, but with the weakness being displayed across the board, it is difficult for traders to comfortably and confidently allocate in these conditions, meaning that people are not blindly purchasing equities at this moment. In the case that people are not just blindly allocating, you have to watch the short-term momentum, sentiment, and direction of the markets to gauge how the comfortable and confident players are allocating.
And that is where things start to get difficult.
If you are looking at the markets now, at least from an institutional standpoint, you will kind of understand where I am coming from. The markets were diving heavily, we bought the dip. The markets continued to dump; we allocated heavily at the bottom. Now, markets have fully recovered, we are up beautifully on our positions…. now what? Do we hold our positions and let the markets continue to run? Or do we cut our positions and start to move on.
I genuinely have no insight on how these funds are allocated at the EXACT moment, but after a $100 recovery on $SPY in a month, it's almost hard not to do what you can to scale out of your positions slowly and manage your general risk by taking profit.
So, with the way the markets are looking, as much as you guys know, I love being bullish and optimistic, but I have to be real and warn you all. I do believe there is an extremely high likelihood that the markets will continue to sell off from this point and cause more weakness to be generated in the markets. It would not surprise me if one of these days $SPY does go to $570-580, and give us all another opportunity to buy the dip, but at the same time, we simply just see where the markets go from here. Please just tread lightly and practice safe risk management.
With the way the markets moved yesterday, I do want to take a little bit of time to talk about the ongoing market conditions and why I never advise 0-DTE option contracts. So, with 0-DTE contracts, essentially the way I look at them, it is a great way to leverage an account in the short term with lower capital requirements, or you are looking to capitalize on stupidity. 99% of the time, I am always looking at the opportunities to take advantage of that stupidity, because people are purchasing highly OTM options when volatility and the implied movement are extremely low. Yes, in the case that there is an extremely LARGE directional movement where your contracts go ITM, and then deeply ITM, a contract that you paid pennies for is worth exponentially more. But, in most scenarios, that simply does not happen.
My advice for you, if you are looking to play 0-DTE contracts, is multiple-fold. It depends on where you are, market conditions, and how volatile the markets are.
For 95% of the time, I will say that 0-DTE contracts are an EV-Negative play; essentially, you are just betting some money that short-term markets move favorably in your direction so you can cut the allocation and move on. I would highly suggest against getting 0-DTE contracts in the short term, especially if market conditions are flat or choppy. Those conditions are going to be less than ideal and just continually burn you. Now you are sitting there, $SPY has moved $0.25 in your favor by the end of the day, but your contract is worthless, and $3 OTM. Womp Womp.
For 5% of the time, 0-DTE contracts are the best way to capitalize on the markets. Again, this is the complete shit show of roll a 20 side die, and in the case you land your perfect 20, everything works out perfectly for you. Assuming market momentum is extremely volatile and momentum-based, and you believe that your position is 100% correct and we are going to see an EXTREMELY large breakout in your direction, then a 0-DTE contract is going to be amazing. It does increase the risk of your allocation heavily, but at the same time, with the way the markets are moving, a 0-DTE contract, right before an extremely large movement that you somehow are confident in, will pay you exponentially more than any other play in the markets.
So, if you could not tell, I am not blindly hating 0-DTE contracts. I feel that there are proper and improper ways to capitalize on those contracts. There is no true “best” way to trade any of those positions, but it is just something you should all consider, especially if you are attempting to purchase any contracts.
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, $JEPI, $UNH, $TSLA, $NVDA, $AAPL, $INTC, $BRK/B, $DIS
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $INTC
Economic News for 05/15/2025 (ET):
Initial Jobless Claims - 8:30 AM
U.S. Retail Sales - 8:30 AM
Producer Price Index - 8:30 AM
Core PPI - 8:30 AM
Empire State Manufacturing Survey - 8:30 AM
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey - 8:30 AM
Industrial Production - 9:15 AM
Capacity Utilization - 9:15 AM
Business Inventories - 10:00 AM
Home Builder Confidence Index - 10:00 AM
Notable Earnings for 05/15/2025:
Pre-Market Earnings:
Alibaba Group Holding (BABA)
Walmart (WMT)
Gambling.com (GAMB)
ZEEKR Intelligent (ZEEKR)
Bragg Gaming (BRAG)
NICE (NICE)
REE Automotive (REE)
Azul S.A. (AZUL)
KE Holdings (BEKE)
Birkestock Holding (BIRK)
After-Market Earnings:
Applied Materials (AMAT)
CAVA Group (CAVA)
Doximity (DOCS)
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)
Credicorp (BAP)
ALPHA COGNITION (ACOG)
BioHarvest Sciences (BHST)
South Bow (SOBO)
Globant (GLOB)
Zenvia (ZENV)
Wrap up
Hopefully, market conditions do get better for us. Just know that going into today, I am slightly more bearish on the markets than bullish. Obviously, I hope that the markets fully recover and slaughter anyone bearish in the markets, but I am just being both realistic and down to earth with my general sentiment. So, we will see where the markets take us from here, and do what we can to maximize our profit potential!!!
Good luck trading, and let’s watch as $SPY doesn’t sell off super super super hard today…. right?