HaiKhuu Daily Report - 07/19/2024
Good morning, and happy Friday!
I hope you are all excited to see where the markets take us today! $SPY is neutral at the time of writing this report, but we’ve seen a significant amount of bearish momentum in an extremely short period of time. $SPY has broken below the first level of major support, and we are starting to see $SPY come down to major psychological and technical support in the daily timeframe. Expect to see a bounce on $SPY here at $550, or expect to see continued selling with a confirmation of a reversal if $SPY is able to break down below $550. Conditions are going to be difficult to navigate here in the short term with both confidence and consistency, but as long as you all are able to practice safe risk management and remain solvent, this will be an interesting time. Previously, when $SPY broke through major resistance, we watched as $SPY rallied +10% in an extremely short period of time. Market conditions are still strong, and I am not saying that is not a possibility, but just remember, as I have said previously. Hedge your portfolios because it looks like the markets are starting to display general weakness in the process, and realistically; we can rally from here, or this can be the nail in the coffin before the markets start dropping.
Just remember; market conditions are strong, but despite how strong these conditions feel, there are many cracks in the foundation and everyone inevitably will come crashing down. It is not a matter of if, but when. So continue to tread lightly and do what you can to maximize your profits in strong market conditions, while limiting your downside risk!
Good luck trading, and let’s see where we end this week!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Support: $557.79
Baseline Support: $548.61
Psychological Support: $550
Daily Cloud Support: $525.17
$SPY Daily Candles - [07/18/2024]
Thoughts & Comments from Yesterday - 07/18/2024
Yesterday was an absolutely disgusting day for the overall markets. With the way that the markets reacted, conditions were looking great before they weren’t, as we broke through major support levels and displayed weakness across the board. We started the day with $SPY opening at $558.54; conditions were looking alright as $SPY was up slightly from the previous close and rallied up to another high of the day, trading at $559.51. Once peaking, we started to display signs of a $SPY reversal; the markets dropped and only continued to drop for the foreseeable future.
$SPY reversed within the first hour of the day, making the official high of the day before continually dropping throughout the rest of the day, making trading extremely difficult to do with confidence, and many traders, unfortunately, got absolutely slaughtered in the process. We continually made new lows of the day until the lunchtime lull, where selling finally slowed down, hovering right above $552 and then getting legs again, moving back up and breaking above $554. Conditions were looking pretty strong in the process before $SPY ultimately started selling off again afterward.
Towards the back half of the afternoon, $SPY quickly dropped from $554~ to going on to make the official low of the day during power hour, trading at $550.46, down over $9 from the top, and $6 for the day. Thankfully, we recovered slightly into close, watching as $SPY pushed up $2 from the bottom, and ended the day trading at $552.66, down $4.30 for the day, or down roughly 0.75%. Conditions were not great in any way, shape, or form, but provided us with opportunities to trade throughout the day. It genuinely was a disgusting day for the overall markets rejecting the daily conversion line support and watching as $SPY continued to sell off, coming down to baseline support. Hopefully, the markets will recover from here and start to display general strength. Still, it is just a matter of watching market conditions today and doing what we can to navigate these conditions however possible. Let’s see what happens today and hope for the best!
S&P 500 Heat Map - 7/18/2024
Thoughts & Comments for Today - 07/19/2024
Today is going to be a tough way to end the week. There are so many conflicting sentiments in the markets at the moment that there is no good decisive answer on what the best way to capitalize on these market directions is and which direction the markets ultimately will take. So let me take some time to give you my opinion of the markets in these conditions and how I personally would recommend you attempt to trade in these conditions.
With $SPY displaying significant weakness over the previous two days, we are due for a bounce in the markets. Still, there has been significant weakness that has been forming over the previous couple of weeks that I have warned you all about. This bearish movement that has happened over the previous couple of days is not enough to be the correction we’ve been looking for. I mean, realistically, $SPY is only down less than 1% over the entirety of the past week; yes, from the top, $SPY is down about 2%, but 2% in the grand scheme of things is not much at all. Market conditions are still extremely strong, but we are coming up to major support levels. What will happen in a little is either $SPY breaks below major support on the daily and continues to drop indefinitely as people are scared, or the markets recover beautifully, bouncing off of the multiple levels of support, and we break out and continue this strong bullish movement.
There are no good answers on which direction the markets go, mostly here, but the levels you should watch out for are $SPY 550, 548, and 557.
$550 is major psychological support, $548 is the daily baseline support, and 557 is the daily conversion line resistance. If we break below $548, I am expecting bearish movements in the markets for the foreseeable future. If we break back above 557, the markets will display strength and confidence again, which will provide us with an opportunity to trade with relative confidence. It is just a matter of which direction we go and how much time it takes to get to that point.
The question is, where do we go from here, and what can happen? Truthfully, there are no good answers to this. Everyone’s assumption is as valid as other people’s, even if their price targets are irrational. Everyone has their own opinion on where the market goes, but it comes down to whether you are comfortable and confident in your prediction and prepared accordingly for the outcome. I am not saying you should be extremely pessimistic in these market conditions, but at the same time, you should not be overly optimistic when you are blindsided and don’t practice risk management. Please tread lightly in these market conditions and practice safe risk management.
If you are looking for a great opportunity to allocate into the markets today. Look into selling some 0-DTE CSPs. If you want to take on some heat and get paid for it today, look to sell some CSPs on $AMD or $NVDA that are highly OTM and can provide us with some solid premium. Outside of that, you can always look to sell against organizations like $CMG, $META, or $AMZN!
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, $INTC, $TSLA, $NVDA, $MSFT, $AAPL
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $INTC
Economic News for 07/19/2024 (ET):
Fed’s Williams Speaks - 10:40 AM
Fed’s Bostic Speaks - 12:45 PM
Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count - 1:00 PM
Notable Earnings for 07/19/2024
Pre-Market Earnings:
American Express (AXP)
SLB (SLB)
Autoliv (ALV)
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)
Comerica (CMD)
Haliburton (HAL)
Travelers (TRV)
Huntington Bancshares (HBAN)
Wipro Limited (WIT)
Wrap up
Hopefully, we will see a reversal in the markets and watch as $SPY rallies beautifully today, but please tread lightly and practice safe risk management. Many traders are going to have an extremely difficult time navigating these conditions with confidence, while other traders are going to be able to realize a significant amount of gains with relative ease. So, let’s see where the markets take us today and do what we can to maximize the amount of profits we are going to be able to generate in a short period of time. Tread lightly, practice safe risk management, and have some fun!
Good luck trading, and let’s end this week strong!