HaiKhuu Daily Report - 07/30/2025
Good morning, and happy Wednesday! I hope you all are ready for what is going to be, hopefully, the most volatile day we’ve seen in a while.
Today, we have the Fed’s decision on the interest rates, and then Jerome Powell speaking right after the announcement today at 2/2:30 p.m. EST. Then we also have earnings from a slew of companies, including $META and $MSFT after hours today, and $AAPL & $AMZN after hours tomorrow.
Currently, the markets are pricing in a 98% chance that there is no rate cut, so I am under the current expectations that the markets “should” move up later today on the confirmation of that news, and in reality, the only downside we would see in the markets could come before the announcement. It will be interesting to play into, out of, and around the FOMC’s interest rate decision, but I will discuss this further in-depth later in the report.
All that matters now is that you all read the full report and prepare accordingly for a difficult, yet hopefully extremely profitable day for the markets!
Good luck trading today, and let’s hope the markets don’t implode!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Support: $631.42
Baseline Support: $615.28
Psychological Support: $630
Daily Cloud Support: $594.64
Thoughts & Comments from Yesterday - 07/29/2025
Yesterday was a genuinely disgusting day for the overall markets despite the fact that we went on and hit new all-time highs. Market conditions were great around open, and we did make new highs, but as a result of trade deal talks, global economic bs, and statement’s from people of power, many organizations did end up selling off heavily yesterday. Hopefully, no one generated a significant amount of losses, and hopefully you scalped some great trades with us!
So, we started yesterday with $SPY opening at $638.36, conditions at open were great as we quicklyt bounced up and made the official all-time high at $638.66, and like I saracastically joked about, we watched as $SPY made a repeat of the previous couple of trading days where we pop and break out early, followed by relatively small, but substantial amount of selling.
After the first hour of the day, $SPY did display a significant amount of weakness as we started to lose that support, and went from $638, to going black right before lunch, and trending red for the rest of the day, consistently hovering and bouncing at $635. We remained at that level and kinda chopped within a +/- $1 range, where we tested $636, and made the official low of the day at $634.34, and officially ended the day with $SPY trading at $635.26 down $1.68, or down roughly 0.25%.
As much as I would love to say about how terrible the market conditions were, but again, $SPY went on to make a new all-time high, we watched as traders displayed significantly more confdience and had a tough time, but oddly enough, scalping during the correct times yesterday would have been favorable. But hey, regardless of the market conditions today, and the difficulties we are seeing, again $SPY made a new all-time high yesterday, so let’s see where the markets go from here!
S&P 500 Heat Map - 07/29/2025
Thoughts & Comments for Today - 07/30/2025
Today will be an interesting day. With FOMC and earnings, please go into today expecting volatility, confusion, difficulty, and many opportunities to realize a significant amount of gains. If there is any time to take on or take off risk. This is the time.
Markets today will hypothetically pump or dump hard, and no one has a good answer to which direction we are headed.
Conditions are strong during the pre-market session, which provides us with some confidence, and the drop yesterday sets us up with a launch pad of opportunity towards the upside. Again, given the current market conditions, it won't be easy to capitalize on these opportunities confidently.
We have consistently seen strength during the pre-market session that has been followed by bearish momentum throughout the day, and I hope that today is not a repeat of that, but in typical FOMC fashion, I do expect to see some bearish momentum on an intraday basis.
So, with FOMC happening. I do want to take a little bit of time to talk about how “typically” the markets move on an FOMC day. But, before I say anything, I need to legally say that again, this is not financial advice nor a signal to buy or sell any position. I am not a registered financial advisor, nor am I claiming to be YOUR financial advisor. This is “historically” what happens on an FOMC trading day, and does not guarentee a repeat in the future.
We have FOMC at 2 pm EST, and Jerome Powell speaking at 2:30 pm EST. Conditions are going to be difficult, but we have noted a consistent repeating trend when it comes to how the markets act on an FOMC day. Again, this is what happens on a “typical” FOMC day, and does not mean it will necessarily happen and become true today.
Typically, we will see strength during the pre-market session, followed by quick bullish momentum early in the morning. This is followed by selling leading into the lunchtime lull, FOMOing leading into FOMC, and then ??? once the Fed’s announcement happens & Jerome Powell starts speaking.
There are ways that you can capitalize on the momentum and trend, but I just have to reiterate that everything involved with trading today is going to be extremely risky, as well as the fact that these are historical trends and do not predict future outcomes.
But, looking at things historically, the best way to have played FOMC is as follows:
Be long at/before open
With markets typically rallying for the first 15-30-60 minutes of the day, I like having long exposure that I take off towards the top.
Short the rally
Only short WHEN there is the official confirmation of a reversal, we might continue to trend up, but typically we will end up being overbought early in the morning as people forget that it is FOMC and FOMO into positions early in the morning, short the top, again ONLY WHEN THERE IS THE CONFIRMATION OF A REVERSAL TOWARDS THE DOWNSIDE. There will be many fakeouts, and you will be attempting to short strength if you time it incorrectly. Wait until you get your confirmation, and you will be set.
Cover during lunchtime Lull
Cover your shorts during the lull once selling has kinda subsided. We’ve found a point of relative neutrality as people are exiting positions going into lunch. When you are comfortable and confident, cover your position at the bottom and wait until you start to see signs of volume picking up leading into the afternoon, as you are frontloading the FOMO leading back into FOMC.
Frontload the FOMO
People will FOMO back into the markets, leading back INTO FOMC, so if you are attempting to scalp / trade, follow the momentum that people are FOMOing into, and do what you can to capitalize on that short-term momentum. Get out before FOMC, because once announcements are live and Jerome Powell starts speaking, it is genuinely game over, and any previous sentiment is out the door.
???
Good luck. Anything can happen. Markets can pump. Markets can dump. Markets can do whatever on whatever happens. There is no good analysis or sentiment after the announcement. Just tread lightly, follow the momentum, be quick, and practice safe risk management. I do NOT recommend that the majority of traders attempt to scalp this time, and if you are attempting to scalp, please tread extremely lightly, as many losses will be generated in the process.
I personally enjoy playing the long side of things, where I enjoy picking up the fallen knife attempting to frontload the FOMO during the lunchtime lull (#4). That is the safest, most consistent, and most secure play of that bunch as it is a human psychology play more so than anything technical. So that one is going to be one that you will see me 100% do today.
Just make sure you are practicing safe risk management today because again, many traders are going to generate a signficant amount of losses in an extremely short period of time. Do not attempt to get short term options unless you are gambling FOMC specifically, then attempt to grab them during that lull, and have an amazing time trading today!
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, $JEPI, $INTC, SOL, $RIVN, $TSLA, $NVDA, $BRK/B
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $INTC
Economic News for 07/30/2025 (ET):
ADP Employment - 8:15 AM
GDP - 8:30 AM
Pending Home Sales - 10:00 AM
FOMC Interest-Rate Decision - 2:00 PM
Fed Chair Powell Press Conference - 2:30 PM
Notable Earnings for 07/30/2025:
Pre-Market Earnings:
Altria Group (MO)
Vertiv Holdings (VRT)
Virtu Financial (VIRT)
Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA)
Generac Holdings (GNRC)
Kraft Heinz (KHC)
Leonardo DRS (DRS)
Etsy (ETSY)
GE HealthCare (GEHC)
Hershey Company (HSY)
After Market Earnings:
Meta Platforms (META)
Microsoft (MSFT)
Robinhood Markets (HOOD)
Applied Digital (APLD)
Carvana (CVNA)
Lam Research (LRCX)
Ford Motor (F)
Kinross Gold Corp (KGC)
QUALCOMM (QCOM)
Arm Holdings (ARM)
Wrap up
Hopefully, Jerome Powell and FOMC do not kill the markets today, but we are also in a situation where markets, in reality, can easily break out. This could be the catalyst that triggers a market breakout, provided everything else in the thesis aligns perfectly. So please, tread lightly and remember, there is a 98% chance that rates remain unchanged, and that we have major earnings today and tomorrow after hours. So tread lightly, practice risk management, and protect your bottom line while maximizing your profit. This is going to be a fun time.
Good luck trading, and let’s see where JP takes us today!