HaiKhuu Daily Report - 08/12/2024
Good morning, and happy Monday! I hope you all had a wonderful weekend and are ready for another volatile week for the markets! Conditions are looking strong as we are recovering after the massive drop last week, and I am personally extremely excited to see where the markets go from here. We are at the upper end of Extreme Fear on the Fear and Greed Index, but it is hard not to be bullish in these market conditions. Do what you can to maximize your profit potential while practicing safe risk management, as these market conditions are great but can shift extremely quickly before we know it. So please have some fun, but do what you can to realize some gains.
There are some major news events happening this week, so be on the lookout for these events!
Federal Budget Balance - Today 2 PM (EST)
PPI / Bostic Speaks - Tuesday
Mortgage Data / CPI - Wednesday
Jobless Claims / Retail Sales / Business Inventories - Thursday
U Mich Inflation Expectations / Goolsbee Speaks - Friday
If you would like to see all of the news events for this week, check out THE WEEKLY PREVIEW!
Regardless of what these market conditions do, please continue to protect your bottom line, but do what you can to maximize your profit potential!
Good luck trading this week, and let’s see $SPY continue to break out!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Support/Resistance: $537.71
Baseline Resistance: $537.71
Psychological Support: $520
Psychological Resistance: $540
Daily Cloud Support: $525.24
Daily Cloud Resistance: $542.72
$SPY Daily Candles - [08/09/2024]
Thoughts & Comments from Last Week
Last week was a beautiful week for the markets, once you take into account the fact that the markets were extremely bullish after an insane selling event happening during the pre-market session on Monday. Conditions were rough going into Monday after Japan had its worst-selling event in years, and fears of recession started to hit the markets. This caused $SPY to drop to the lowest it has been in almost three months, in just a matter of a couple of a couple of trading days, but regardless, as I always say. Life moves on, and so do the markets. Thankfully, we had an amazing opportunity to trade and realize a significant amount of gains in the process of attempting to play the recovery in the markets.
We started the week with $SPY opening at $511.64, down roughly $22 from close the previous Friday. Conditions were deadly as bears made more money than they ever expected, and the bulls were in shambles. VIX was trading at 66, and everyone was genuinely concerned about the market conditions. Thankfully, this was an amazing opportunity to actively trade and capitalize on these market conditions. $SPY went on to make the three-month low, trading at $510.27, and recovered beautifully to make the official high of the day, trading at $523.58. These conditions were perfect, but we watched as the markets quickly snapped back to close, ending the day officially trading at $517.38. To put it in perspective, $SPY was trading at $554 just two trading days prior.
The rest of the week was a beautiful recovery, as on Tuesday, we ended the day with $SPY trading at $522.15, right at the daily cloud resistance, but Wednesday is where things started to get a little interesting. During the pre-market session, $SPY was looking extremely strong, opening the day trading at $528.47, and traders were extremely optimistic at that time. We continued to rally after the markets opened, making the official high of the day trading at $531.59, up beautifully from the lows on Monday. Markets were strong, markets were bullish, and we were on the route to recovery. $SPY got up to the daily conversion line resistance but was quickly shot down after making the official high for the day. Throughout the rest of the day, $SPY dropped, and everyone had a tough time. We watched as $SPY went on to drop roughly $13 from the top to make the official low of the day, trading at $518.05, and ended the day with $SPY trading at $518.66. Conditions were not great, but life moves on.
Thursday and Friday were beautiful days for the markets, though, displaying a significant amount of confidence in the process, breaking out with $SPY ending the day on Thursday, up $12 from the close on Wednesday, trading at $530.65, and we watched as $SPY slowly moved up on Friday, breaking above the daily conversion line resistance, ending the week trading at $532.93.
Overall, for the week, assuming you do not take into account the fact that the markets were absolutely shot on Monday during the pre-market session, it was absolutely beautiful, and we were able to realize a significant amount of gains in an extremely short period of time. I am not happy with the way the markets moved initially, but I am very happy with the placement that the markets have at the moment. It is hard not to be confident in these strong market conditions, but at the same time, it is hard not to have your guard up. Let’s see what these market conditions do for us this week, and have an amazing time in the process!
S&P 500 Heat Map - 08/09/2024
Thoughts & Comments for Today - 08/12/2024
Today is setting up to be another great day for the markets, but as you all know, just because things are looking better does not mean that you should let your guard down. We are still in extreme fear on the fear and greed index, but if I am just being completely honest, I don’t understand why people are fearful at the moment. Market conditions have experienced some downside over the previous couple of days. I cannot deny that, but we’ve recovered nicely, and to be completely honest, this movement down was expected. With the bullish movement we’ve seen in the markets over the previous couple of trading days and the placement we’ve seen, people should be more optimistic and excited to trade. Think about it this way: $SPY was trading below $450 this time last year, and we are up 30% from last October. There is no reason at all that we should not continue to be thankful for the position the markets are currently in and attempt to capitalize on these conditions while we can because, realistically, once the markets do start to display weakness on a larger scale, it’s going to be a rough time.
Regardless of the sentiment in the markets, there is zero reason why the markets should not continue to display strength over the next couple of days. I am expecting to see some choppy and volatile market conditions, but I am watching and waiting for a breakout overall. With the way the markets are looking, there is no reason we should not be able to continue to move up. The next levels I will be watching for $SPY are the daily baseline resistance and the daily cloud resistance. Assuming $SPY is able to break above both of those levels, that means that we will see a confirmation of a reversal from the bottom, and the strength and confidence for the markets to continue to break out.
I will say that the amount of traders that this downside has impacted is substantial, and there are no new retail traders coming back into the markets the same way we saw everything working out just a couple of weeks ago, but regardless of the conditions, the traders that are coming into the markets and providing liquidity right now are extremely strong and diligent. Many of them have had experience trading during COVID times and unfortunately quit while we watched as the markets slowly burned in 2022, so they are highly qualified and have experience navigating choppy market conditions.
But regardless of how the markets are looking, or the strength that it is displaying, I do have to continue to say, please practice risk management. Market conditions are looking great, comparing these conditions to the bottom, but at the same time, the markets can slip and fall at any moment, which has been proven true by the movement we’ve seen over the previous week. It’s not hard to play the recovery, but it is hard to predict the downfall. So tread lightly in these market conditions, and don’t take on dumb exposure. Follow the market momentum, and have a great time in the process!
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, $INTC, $TSLA, $RIVN, $NVDA, $AMD, $INTC
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $INTC
Economic News for 08/12/2024 (ET):
NY Fed Inflation Expectations - 11:00 AM
3&6 Month Bill Auction - 11:30 AM
Federal Budget Balance - 2:00 PM
Notable Earnings for 08/12/2024
Pre-Market Earnings:
Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD)
monday.com (MNDY)
Fortrea Holdings (FTRE)
KE Holdings (BEKE)
After-Market Earnings:
DHT Holdings (DHT)
FreightCar America (RAIL)
Adecoagro (AGRO)
Rumble (RUM)
Fathom Holdings (FTHM)
Crescent Capital BDC (CCAP)
Viant Technology (DSP)
Wrap up
Hopefully, market conditions will only continue to improve over the next couple of days, providing us with great opportunities to capitalize on the bullish momentum in the markets while they are trending favorably for us. We are not out of the woods yet, but it seems that we are seeing light at the end of the tunnel. Continue to tread lightly, but I am excited to see where these conditions take us. This will be a fun time with opportunities being presented to us, so realize some gains in the process and have a great time!
Good luck trading, and let’s see what this week has in store for us!