HaiKhuu Daily Report - 09/23/2024
Good morning, and happy Monday! Man, this is going to be a fun week for the markets, as everyone is going to be extremely confused and conflicted about how they want the markets to react at this level. I hope you all had a great weekend and are ready for an extremely stressful or profitable time for the markets—it depends on where the markets take you!
Expect significant volatility and confusion in the markets. These will result in irrational movements that are difficult to navigate but extremely profitable if you catch them at the right times.
We will either see NEW all-time highs due to these market conditions, or we are about to watch as $SPY sells off irrationally. There will be no in-between. So tread lightly, but do what you can to take advantage of these current conditions!
Major news to look out for this week (EST):
Monday: Services PMI - 9:45 am
Tuesday: Consumer Confidence - 10 am
Wednesday: New Home Sales - 10 am
Earnings: Micron (AH)
Thursday: Jobless Claims / Durable Goods - 8:30 am
Earnings: Costco (AH)
Friday: Personal Income/Spending, Core PCE - 8:30 am
To see the entire weekly preview, click HERE for the complete earnings and economic news list!
Good luck trading this week, and let’s see if $SPY can break out again!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Support: $556.42
Baseline Support: $556.16
Psychological Support: $560
Daily Cloud Support: $537.71
Thoughts & Comments from Last Week
Last week was a wild time for the overall markets. Rates were dropped by 50 BPS, and as a result, $SPY went on to make a NEW All-Time High. Confidence shot through the roof. I’ve not seen this level of optimism from retail traders since we’ve seen Roaring Kitty enter back into $GME! It was an amazing week for some but bloody disgusting for others.
We started the week with $SPY opening at $561.76, displaying strong conditions, and watched as $SPY slowly trended up but did not display much confidence. Markets continually moved up, leading into FOMC on Wednesday, and this is where things started to get fun. We watched as $SPY rallied and made a NEW all-time high on the 50 BPS cut, and volatility and volume flooded the markets. $SPY rallied up beautifully to make the new all-time high, trading at $568.69, before coming all the way back to close at $561.
This is where the fun all started. During the overnight session, as everyone was processing the news of the rate cut, the markets decided to absolutely rally as a result of that, and we opened up with $SPY making a NEW all-time high, opening at $571.01 and making the official all-time high trading at $572.88. Thursday was a difficult day to actively trade, but thankfully, opportunities were available for us to actively realize gains with relative ease.
Friday was relatively uneventful. There were choppy market conditions, but there was nothing of any major significance we could have capitalized on with confidence. We ended the week with $SPY trading at $568.25, closing the week at the highest it’s ever been, and we are watching as confidence is simply flowing out of the markets.
It was a wild week for the general markets, but thankfully opportunities were amongst us, and we made a NEW all-time high in the markets! Let’s see what this week has in store for us, and make the most of these opportunities!
S&P 500 Heat Map - Last Week
Thoughts & Comments for Today - 09/23/2024
Both today and this week will be an extremely interesting time that will make trading extremely difficult to navigate with confidence. I am not saying that the markets are going to sell off, but I think that it will be extremely difficult to continually capitalize on these conditions with confidence. Anything can happen here in the short term, and this is what we have to account for. There is going to be a significant amount of inconsistencies and volatility in the markets as a result of confusion and traders are going to have an extremely difficult time.
If you are attempting to trade, I have a couple of recommendations for you. Unless you are trading longer timeframes or extremely short timeframes, I would advise you all to be extremely cautious of 0-dte option contracts this week. We will see a significant amount of chop, meaning if you scaled in improperly to your option contract, you can get decimated with relative ease. Outside of that, if you are attempting to trade on an intraday basis, look to follow the momentum and be extremely quick to take profits or adjust your stop into profit. This is going to be tough if market conditions are choppy. But I would rather be stopped out of a position and continue to run without me than not get stopped out of a position, look away, and be down a significant amount. However, the biggest recommendation is to look for deals in the current market. This is easier said than done, but nothing is easier than buying a great company at a heavy discount and simply riding it for however long you’d like. I would not advise adding to organizations that you would consider “overvalued” with the anticipation that they continue to move up, but I would highly recommend you look into an organization that has had some short-term difficulty that can be easily overcome as a result of some fundamental restructuring of the organization. There are going to be many small-cap stocks that hit this demographic perfectly, as well as some other major organizations that I am invested in at the moment, including $BA and $INTC.
The one thing that does genuinely concern me at this point is the way that technical analysis is set up. After this large movement in the markets, we are seeing both the conversion and baseline move up, which is a great sign if it happens naturally and occurs slowly, but after the news on the rates being changed, we’ve seen an extremely large shift in the support levels. Assuming that the markets do not continually get stronger over the next couple of weeks, I think that, realistically, we will see some weak bearish momentum coming into the markets. So continue to capitalize on these market conditions, but do what you can to protect yourself, as conditions can weaken. You all know the story. Markets get weak, and there is nothing of any major concern, but then we watch the selling snowballs become a self-fulfilling selling cycle. Please tread lightly and practice safe risk management.
For my allocations today, as I do not have a good read on the markets, I will be treading extremely lightly for safety. I believe that market conditions are exceptionally strong right now, but I am not comfortable adding here, mostly as I believe there is a high fall risk we should all consider when looking at a larger timeframe. So, I’ll attempt to scalp when I can, but I am going into the day anticipating that I will be more passive for safety reasons!
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, $INTC, $BA, $NVDA, $TSLA, $AAPL, $GOOGL, $RIVN
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $INTC / $BA
Economic News for 09/23/2024 (ET):
Services PMI - 9:45 AM
Manufacturing PMI - 9:45 AM
Notable Earnings for 09/23/2024
Pre-Market Earnings:
None Scheduled
After-Market Earnings:
AAR Corp (AIR)
Wrap up
Hopefully, market conditions will only continue to strengthen throughout the day, and we will be able to continually display confidence after markets open. Assuming we are able to continue with both strength and confidence, we will be able to easily continue to realize gains. So please make sure to practice safe risk management and do what you can to maximize your profit potential!
Good luck trading, and let’s see what this week has in store for us!