HaiKhuu Daily Report - 09/30/2024
Good morning, and happy Monday! I hope you all had a wonderful weekend and survived the storm! Seasons are changing, and things are about to get SPOOKY in the markets. This is the final day of Q3, so expect to see some significant volatility as people start to reposition their portfolios leading into Q4. Traders are going to have a difficult time trading, but my word of advice for you today is to simply follow the momentum. I know I say it often, but when I say follow the momentum. I seriously mean follow the momentum. I’ll talk more about the logistics of what I am saying later on in the full report, but just know that this is one of those times where the trend is going to be set by major institutions deciding on which direction they are attempting to allocate; so in the case, they are selling off either a specific organization, or sector, you’ll see overly bearish movements in the short term, while the same applies to the inverse. So, make smart decisions, follow the momentum and do what you can to realize gains today.
We do have some major news coming out this week, including:
Today - Chicago PMI @ 9:45 am EST
Earnings: Carnival Corp (CCL) - AH
Tuesday - Manufacturing PMI @ 9:45 am
Earnings: Nike (NKE) - AH
Wednesday - ADP Employment Report @ 8:15 am
Thursday - Initial Jobless Claims @ 8:30 / Sevices PMI @ 9:45
Friday - Jobs Data @ 8:30 am
If you’d like the full preview, click HERE for the report!
Regardless, this is going to be a fun week. Significant volatility will make trading interesting and inconsistent. Please practice safe risk management and do what you can to maximize your potential for gain.
Good luck trading this week, and let’s try and make some life changing money!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Support: $567.75
Baseline Support: $557.08
Psychological Support: $570
Daily Cloud Support: $540.76
Thoughts & Comments from Last Week
Last week was an interesting time for the general markets. Traders were able to realize a significant amount of gains or got clapped in the process. We continued to make new all-time highs, and conditions were wonderful, but it was extremely difficult to navigate in real-time.
So, we started the week with $SPY trading at $569.24. Conditions were not ideal on Monday as $SPY was under the $570 resistance level, and conditions remained relatively neutral most of the day. Not much happened until Wednesday, when volatility started to hit the markets.
We started Wednesday with $SPY opening at $571.35. Conditions were looking strong as $SPY was edging closer and closer to making a new all-time high. However, we watched as $SPY continually sold off throughout the early morning and looked terrible, testing that $570 level once again. Thankfully, market conditions had another decision.
With China and the US cutting rates, $SPY went on a tear during the after-hours session. We opened the day on Thursday, trading at a NEW all-time high. $SPY opened the day trading at $574 and made the official high of the day and an all-time high, trading at $574.71. Conditions at the top were amazing, but we watched as $SPY went into free-fall mode, dropping all the way down to $571 before bouncing.
On Friday, conditions were tough as $SPY was getting close to the previous all-time high but could not make it. We opened the day with $SPY trading at $573.42 and watched as $SPY popped up to make the official high of the day, roughly $0.50 away from the previous all-time high, trading at $574.18. We watched as $SPY continued to sell off throughout the rest of the day, going on to make the official low of the day trading at $570.42, before recovering slightly leading into close.
We ended the week with $SPY trading at $571.47, up $2.23, or roughly 0.4%. The interesting thing about last week is that we continually made new all-time highs, but it did not seem like it, mostly with the results. If you told me that $SPY moved up roughly 0.4%, I wouldn’t have expected you to follow that up with $SPY making a new all-time high, but regardless. It happened, and many traders in the community had an amazing time in the process. I hope that you all were able to realize a significant amount of gains in the process and had an amazing time last week! Let’s see what this week has in store for us and have the best time possible!
S&P 500 Heat Map - Last Week
Thoughts & Comments for Today - 09/30/2024
Today should be a funky time for the overall markets. At the time of writing this report, markets were relatively neutral, but obviously, these conditions will change significantly from early in the morning to market close, so please continue to tread lightly and make smart decisions. I think markets are looking extremely strong, but conditions appear to be slowing down slightly. I cannot tell if that is retail dragging their feet or economic conditions starting to slowly worsen. There will be a mix of sentiments going into the day, and I am very excited to see where markets take us over the next couple of days.
I will say that going into the trading day today, I am expecting to see a significant amount of volatility and chop until organizations decide on which direction they want to trade in. Once that happens, I am assuming there will be a significant amount of momentum-based movement.
I would again warn you about following the momentum, and I will elaborate more on this. I felt that I explained it very well during the introduction to this report, but I will elaborate more. As this is the final day of the quarter, institutions will “reallocate” and “reposition” their portfolios. They will sell off organizations they believe are not a great investment and reallocate organizations that they believe have a lot of potential here in the short term. As a result of this, I am expecting to see a significant amount of volatility, and a significant amount of momentum. Watch for the organizations that institutions may start to allocate into, these in my opinion are going to be smaller cap organizations with higher debt, as well as a possible rotation out of tech, into more consumer staples. Regardless, people are going to start preparing for the holiday season with their allocations, and that reallocation is going to impact the markets. Do not attempt to catch a falling knife, and do what you can to realize some gains.
Again, please practice safe risk management and tread lightly while navigating these conditions. If you are not confident with your allocation, there is no reason why you should feel “forced” to allocate into these market conditions. Just remember, cash is still a position. It will not generate any sort of significant return, but what you gain is safety, and safety should be all of our number one priorities.
For my allocations today, I will say that I am interested in actively trading, but I am not anticipating taking on a significant amount of risk. With the way that the markets are setting up, I am not overly ambitious to attempt to trade, but I am extremely excited to see where the markets take us today, and that we can do what we can to realize as many gains as possible in a short period of time. I may look to take profit on some of my long holdings due to the skittishness of the markets right now for safety, but I still anticipate holding many positions long in the process!
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, $INTC, $BA, $RIVN, $AIFF, $TSLA, $NVDA, $AAPL
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $INTC / $BA / $RIVN
Economic News for 09/30/2024 (ET):
Chicago PMI - 9:45 AM
Notable Earnings for 09/30/2024
Pre-Market Earnings:
Carnival Corp (CCL)
After-Market Earnings:
DealerTrack Holdings (TRAK)
Wrap up
Hopefully, market conditions only continue to get stronger and provide us with opportunities to trade and realize a significant amount of gains in the process. Tread lightly today as it is the final day of Q3, and prepare accordingly as market conditions are volatile, mostly as headlines of the hurricane start to hit major outlets. Please tread lightly (not a hurricane joke) and do what you can to realize gains while attempting to trade today. Please practice safe risk management, and let’s have a great time!
Good luck trading, and let’s kill it this week!!!