HaiKhuu Daily Report - 10/09/2024
Good morning, and happy Wednesday! I hope you are all ready for some volatility in the markets! General market conditions look strong as we are within striking distance of making a NEW all-time high!
We have FOMC minutes being released today at 2 pm EST, and I am extremely excited to see where the markets go from he. It is just a matter of being able to realize a significant amount of gains in an extremely short period of time. Traders will be presented with many opportunities to trade, mostly around 2 PM EST today, so please continue to tread lightly but follow the momentum in the markets. As always, please practice safe risk management and maximize your profit potential.
I’ll talk more about navigating FOMC Minutes in the full report but for now…
Good luck trading today, and let’s see where the markets take us!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Support: $569.99
Baseline Support: $557.08
Psychological Support: $570
Daily Cloud Support: $548.35
Thoughts & Comments from Yesterday - 10/08/2024
Yesterday was a beautiful and confusing day for the overall markets. Conditions started slow and relatively weak, but they ended beautifully green and optimistic. Many traders were provided with some amazing opportunities to trade and realize gains, but it was just a matter of realizing a significant amount of gains in an extremely short period of time!
We started the day with $SPY opening at $570.48, beautifully green, and watched as $SPY started to display weakness from open, as we dropped from the get-go to test $570, breaking below for a short period of time, making the official low of the day trading at $569.53. Conditions were not the worst at the bottom as $SPY was still beautifully green, and we watched as $SPY rallied from the bottom within the first half hour of the day and only continued to slowly trickle up, displaying general strength and confidence in the process.
Leading into the lunchtime lull, market conditions remained relatively neutral, around $572, and was relatively uneventful, chopping around and making trading extremely difficult and inconsistent at that time, before watching as $SPY did drop quickly to make a relative low in the afternoon, right below $571, before rallying beautifully into close.
During powerhour, $SPY went on to make the official high of the day, trading at $573.78, less than $1 away from the previous all-time high, where we officially ended the day trading at $573.17, up $5.37 for the day, or up approximately 1% overall. Despite us treading even closer to making a new all-time high, it did not feel that way with the movement we saw in the markets, but regardless, its life and opportunities were presented to us to trade, despite trading long, would have obviously been the move.
Life is good, and so are the markets. I hope that you all were able to capitalize on the movement, and hopefully, none of you got caught attempting to scalp $SMCI yesterday because that genuinely was a disgusting time. But hey, life moves on and so do the markets, so let’s see what the markets have in store for us today!
S&P 500 Heat Map - 10/08/2024
Thoughts & Comments for Today - 10/09/2024
Today is going to be a fun time for the general markets. As I said before, we have FOMC minutes coming out at 2 PM EST, and that is the major market-moving catalyst that everyone is going to be looking for. As always, please tread lightly, as there are going to be many opportunities to trade in the short term due to elevated volatility, and elevated volatility is going to make these conditions more difficult to remain consistently profitable if you are attempting to scalp. I would not look to take on a significant amount of short-term exposure in these market conditions as a result of this upcoming volatility, but I would still do what I can to take advantage of the situation.
I believe that today is going to be a choppier day for the overall markets, mostly with the underlying conditions at the moment, but I do believe we will see some general momentum-based movements. The one external factor that I cannot judge well is the fact that we are treading extremely closely to the previous all-time high. With the strength in the markets and the opportunities for general market strength presented to us, we can easily hit that all-time high. I am extremely conflicted about how I want to navigate these conditions, but we are at a place where, realistically, attempting to allocate in these conditions is either going to be a beautiful time or a horrible nightmare.
Assuming that this was just any other general day, not taking into account the strength in the markets at the moment or the fact that traders are overly bullish at the moment, I would go into the day expecting the general human psychology movement in the markets. What I mean by this is essentially looking at the markets from a birdseye view and allocating accordingly to how humans react. I obviously do not know if the markets are going to open with bullish or bearish momentum, but we can assume that there is going to be a larger directional move at open, which is reversed when the markets become overextended in either direction, which is capitalized on, until the momentum slows down leading into lunch, only to watch momentum pick back up leading into the minutes being released. After those minutes are released, it’s open season on where the markets decide to go, and it all comes down to how traders react to what the Feds are saying. Ideally, we rally to new all-time highs in the process, but I would not advise anyone to allocate specifically in speculation of that new all-time high.
An example scenario that has played out multiple times is as follows.
We start the day with market conditions looking strong, and we rally slightly after markets open. We watch as $SPY pushes up nicely but quickly becomes overextended and starts to show a sign of a reversal within the first hour of the day. This would be an opportunity to short and watch as $SPY quickly drops back down and goes on to make the relative low of the day leading into the lunchtime session. This is a great time to cover your position and reverse your allocation. After making that relative low, I am expecting to see a reversal, as people are speculating long leading into the minutes being released, allowing you an opportunity to sell your position into the general trends. Again, anything can happen during the minutes being released, where afterward, there is no confident direction the markets will take us, but what I can say is that one of two directions will happen. Markets receive the minutes well, and the markets rally as a result of that, or results are worse than expected, and we dive. Genuinely, anything can happen, but I would not do anything that I am not personally comfortable or confident in in the process. So this is just something to consider, mostly in these conditions.
Obviously, this is not to a T how the markets are going to work or react, but this is something that you should just consider in these market conditions, as it has played out perfectly like this multiple times over.
For my allocations today, I will say that I seriously do not intend on trading as much unless market momentum is strong. I will not be speculating specifically for the FOMC, nor would I recommend anyone attempt to gamble on the event. If anything, play the reaction to the event and capitalize on the markets that way! I just believe that there is going to be too much risk in the short term to speculate with confidence, but following the momentum afterward should be possible with relative ease.
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, $INTC, $BA, $RIVN, $AIFF, $NVDA, $TSLA, $AAPL, $META
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $INTC / $BA / $RIVN
Economic News for 10/09/2024 (ET):
Wholesale Inventories - 10:00 AM
FOMC Minutes - 2:00 PM
Notable Earnings for 10/09/2024
Pre-Market Earnings:
Helen of Troy (HELE)
Byrna Technologies (BYRN)
After-Market Earnings:
AZZ Inc (AZZ)
Applied Digital Corporation (APLD)
Bassett Furniture (BSET)
E2open Parent Holdings (ETWO)
Wrap up
Hopefully, market conditions will remain favorable leading into the FOMC minutes being released, and we will continue to push as we get closer and closer to a new all-time high on $SPY. Conditions are obviously going to be volatile, so please tread lightly and practice safe risk management today. But opportunities are going to be amongst us, and I am excited to see where we go from here!
Good luck trading, and let’s make the most out of today!