HaiKhuu Daily Report - 10/16/2024
Good morning, and happy Wednesday! If I am being honest, I am still in a state of disbelief. Congratulations to everyone who participated with us in $DRUG, that has been the wildest position I’ve ever seen in my trading career. I’ve never seen a position rally so hard in such a short period of time. It will be interesting to see where the position goes from here, but I do not recommend anyone to attempt to trade this or attempt to enter it at this point, not only for safety but for logistical reasons. We entered into the position initially at $1.20, and I would not attempt to justify any entry at this heavily elevated price.
Again, congratulations to anyone who was in the play with us, but please be cautious if anyone attempts to enter now.
Markets, on the other hand, are starting to look gross. I’ll talk more about the bearish movement in the full report, but for now, just know that $SPY has broken below $580, and traders are starting to have a difficult time. Hopefully, this selling does not continue, but this could be the beginning of the selling streak I’ve been talking about for a while. Hopefully not, but just know it is a reality, mostly as we’ve broken support for the first time in over a week.
So, good luck trading today everyone, and let’s see what wild adventures the markets take on today!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Support: $575.38
Baseline Support: $562.62
Psychological Support: $570
Daily Cloud Support: $544.53
Thoughts & Comments from Yesterday - 10/15/2024
Yesterday was a disgusting day overall for the markets, but I feel that the community was more focused on watching the $DRUG rally yesterday than watching as the markets dove. Semiconductors were a leading sector, having an absolutely disgusting time, but that is life, mostly when semis, in my honest opinion, are what has kept the markets so strong and resilient up until this point.
So, we started the day with $SPY opening at $584.67, looking strong at open, within a dollar of making an all-time high, and watched as $SPY chopped around early in the morning, making the official high of the day trading just above the open price at $584.90, $0.37 away from a new all-time high, before we watched as $SPY had some relatively disgusting, and slow bearish momentum throughout the entire day. $SPY quickly went from remaining choppy and neutral to becoming overly bearish, continually dropping, and we watched as conditions got worse and worse. $SPY thankfully found some support at $582 leading into the lunchtime lull, but as volume started to re-enter the markets, we continually dropped and continued to slowly take everyone out in the process.
The afternoon was not any better, as $SPY continually made a new low, after a new low, where eventually, we did go on to make the official low of the day, trading at $578.55, meaning $SPY was down more than $5 from open, being one of the larger bearish movements we’ve seen in over a month, but regardless it is life. Thankfully, the markets recovered slightly into close, where $SPY officially ended the day trading at $579.78, down $4.54 for the day, or down approximately 0.8%. It is unfortunate that we were not able to reclaim the $580 support by close, as that would have at least brought some slight confidence into the markets, but regardless, it is what it is, and we should all still be happy knowing that markets are still at an insane point, with $SPY up roughly 23% YTD.
Congratulations again to everyone who capitalized on $DRUG yesterday. I may have missed out on a Lamborghini… but welp, that is life. This is not going to be the first time I miss out on an amazing opportunity, and it will not be the last. So life moves on, and we have some fun!
S&P 500 Heat Map - 10/15/2024
Thoughts & Comments for Today - 10/16/2024
Today is going to be an interesting time for the overall markets. With a significant amount of confusion as a result of yesterday, traders at the moment do not have the confidence necessary to know which direction they want the markets to go with confidence. Many traders want to see a breakout in the markets, which is completely understandable, but at the same time, there is a lot of conflicting sentiment where $SPY does need to have a minor correction, but just because we need to see that correction, does not mean it is coming. The selling yesterday was tough, but I would not say that the selling yesterday was of any major concern. It does suck that $SPY broke below $580, but the overall selling yesterday is nothing in comparison to some actual selling.
I will warn you all again that one of these days in the near future is going to be overly bearish and the reversal that we’ve been waiting for. It will be quick and painful and do not say that I’ve not warned you. I don’t know when it is coming, but I just know that it will inevitably come, so it is just a matter of not if but when. So tread lightly and manage your risks and allocations accordingly. The dip will be an amazing opportunity to load up on equities at a cheap price, but it is a matter of timing out the bottom perfectly and allocating with confidence.
Just watch out for semiconductors. As I’ve stated before, I believe that in these market conditions, the two leading indicators that the markets are about to come down are semiconductors getting hit and cryptocurrencies selling off. This is obviously not a guarantee, as many other signals could be a factor, but the easiest to spot is a large bearish move against all semiconductors like yesterday, being a leading indicator that we can continually fall.
For my allocations today, I do not intend on trading as much today. After the selling we saw yesterday, it would not surprise me to see a continuation of the bearish momentum in the markets, and I do not intend to attempt to capitalize on it. I will sit back, hold general positions, and do what I can to maximize our profit potential in the shortest amount of time possible and prepare to buy the dip.
Side Quest: If anyone knows anything about brewing/fermentation, please DM me. I’ve been doing a lot of research on it over the previous week or so.
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, $DRUG, $INTC, $AIFF, $GRYP, $RIVN, $TSLA, $NVDA
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $INTC / $BA / $RIVN
Economic News for 10/16/2024 (ET):
Import Price Index - 8:30 AM
Notable Earnings for 10/16/2024
Pre-Market Earnings:
ASML Holding (ASML)
Morgan Stanley (MS)
Abbott (ABT)
U.S. Bancorp (USB)
Citizens Financial Group (CFG)
First Horizon National (FHN)
Synchrony Financial (SYF)
First Community (FCCO)
OFG Bancorp (OFG)
Prologis (PLD)
After-Market Earnings:
Alcoa (AA)
PPG Industries (PPG)
CSX Corp (CSX)
Rexford Industrial (REXR)
Steel Dynamics (STLD)
Discover Financial (DFS)
Equifax (EFX)
Crown Castle (CCI)
Liberty Energy (LBRT)
Synovus Financial (SNV)
Wrap up
Hopefully, market conditions will strengthen from here. Please follow the general market momentum and make smart decisions. Lots of traders are going to have a great time, but please continue to tread lightly, as genuinely anything can happen over the next couple of trading days. Ideally, the markets don’t sell off from here, but I do not believe we have a say in where the markets decide to take us. So please practice safe risk management and make the most out of these conditions!
Good luck trading, and let’s see where $SPY goes here at $580!