HaiKhuu Daily Report 10/19/2023
Good morning, and happy Thursday! Markets are looking terrible, and $TSLA is looking worse as $NFLX is looking absolutely beautiful. $SPY has broken the daily conversion line support and is showing signs of weakness, so be careful and cautious in these market conditions, but look to allocate long into value organizations when you are given an opportunity to do so. I added $KO to my personal portfolio yesterday and recommend that everyone else start considering that play in these current market conditions.
Safety plays are not going to be sexy, but they are exactly what they claim to be: safety. This is not the time to look to take on extra exposure and heat but to allocate to value organizations where you have the confidence to do so. Please be safe, minimize risk when given an opportunity to do so, and capitalize on the momentum and opportunity that is available in these market conditions.
This should be an extremely interesting time for the markets as a result of the confusion in general sentiment. This should be a great time, so be careful today, but let’s have some fun and make the most out of this confusion!
*Side note: just want to shout out Doug (Solomonsix) for calling out $NFLX for the community. At the time of writing this, $NFLX is up $50 a share
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Support/Resistance: $432.58
Base Line Resistance: $435.63
Strong Psychological Resistance: $440
Weak Psychological Support: $430
Strong Psychological Support: $420
Daily Cloud Resistance: $445.78
$SPY Daily Candles - Rejected baseline resistance & Broke conversion line support [10/18/2023]
Thoughts & Comments from Yesterday, 10/18/2023
Yesterday was an extremely tough day for the markets. There is no good way to sugarcoat the reality of the situation. It was a tough day with no good opportunities that impacted the performance of many traders and generated a significant amount of realized losses in the process.
We started the day with $SPY trading at $434.21, down from the previous close of $436.02, and no clear signs of direction. The markets moved up nicely from open, and we watched as $SPY quickly sold off. This was a common trend throughout the day, as any bullish momentum we saw was quickly sold off, and left traders conflicted and confused for the day. After we came down, we hovered around the open price, where we watched as the markets moved up ever so slightly to make the official high of the day trading at $435.18, and as you all expected at this point, we watched as the markets bled out in front of our own eyes.
$SPY sold off from the high of the day and continually made new lows of the day throughout the rest of the trading day.
Going into lunch, we watched as market momentum slowed down, but there was no bullish momentum or confidence at all. We continued to sell off slowly during lunch, and right after lunch, we watched as $SPY quickly made another low of the day, stopping a lot of traders out (sorry Mike), and quickly bounced up to come right back down.
The selling continued throughout the afternoon, continually making new lows of the day and causing a significant amount of panic going into powerhour. During powerhour, there was no power at all in any way, shape, or form, and it only continued selling as $SPY went to actively test $430 and broke below for a brief moment as we made the official low of the day with $SPY trading at $429.10.
We ended the day with $SPY trading at $430.21, down $5.81, or down approximately 1.33%, with an intraday bearish movement of -0.87%. It was a terrible time for the markets. It was extremely difficult navigating the day with confidence, and one of the worst days to attempt to capitalize on bullish momentum we’ve seen in a while.
Let’s hope that today is a better time for the markets and make the most out of the opportunities that are available to us!
Heatmap - $SPY 10/18/2023
Thoughts & Comments for Today, 10/19/2023
Today is going to be an extremely confusing time for the markets. With the way that the markets sit, there are multiple factors that are impacting people’s general sentiment that will make trading extremely difficult to do consistently today with confidence and will award people with a significant amount of realized gains or generate a significant amount of realized losses. I’ll go over those factors, but please be careful and cautious today.
Bull case: We are currently trading right above the $430 support level. If we are able to sustain this level and watch as $TSLA moves back up on an intraday basis and semiconductors lead the markets, there is a high probability of the markets bouncing and moving up. Max pain is currently $432, so there are bullish incentives for the markets to move up accordingly today. The daily conversion line is trading at $432.58, and to sustain a bullish sentiment in the markets, we need to recover all of the losses that were generated yesterday and get back above that daily conversion line.
Bear case: We have broken below the $430 support level on $SPY, and organizations like $TSLA are a short-term catalyst for fear. We are still in fear on the fear and greed index, and as a result of this, people are not feeling bullish nor optimistic about these current market conditions. We have rejected the daily baseline resistance, broken through the daily conversion line support, and are showing signs of weakness throughout the pre-market session. If we see any general selling coming from any of the mega-caps or semiconductors, we can easily hold below this level and continue to sell off in the process.
I personally want to believe that there is an edge to attempt to play the bull side momentum in the markets, but the level I would consistently look out for is the $430 support on $SPY. If there is a shift in general sentiment, news, or any organization selling, we will watch as this level gets sold off extremely quickly as people quickly shift their sentiment back from being optimistic and hopeful to fearful.
This is not the time to attempt to go long any general positions that are more speculative, and I would only attempt to allocate into value organizations that you are comfortable holding at these current evaluations.
With the way the markets sit, there is going to be a significant amount of risk if you are attempting to allocate into general tech. There is a many catalysts for downside in the markets right now, and as a result of this, I cannot recommend allocating to tech. If you are attempting to trade, have fun attempting to trade tech here. There will be many opportunities to trade, but allocating long is increasing your exposure at a rate I personally cannot recommend with confidence.
I would highly recommend continuing to allocate into value at this time because there is safety in these positions that will provide you with opportunities to realize gains while minimizing your general exposure against the markets. If there is a shift in market sentiment, these fundamentally solid value plays will become the safe haven that people will flock to while selling their speculative tech organizations.
For my personal sentiment in the markets, I am not going to look to actively trade this market momentum too much as there is a significant amount of downside risk in the markets that, realistically, is going to be very difficult to capitalize on consistently with confidence. I personally am allocated into value positions like $F, $GM, $DIS, and $KO. I’ll attempt to take advantage of opportunities that are presented to me, but I do not want to allocate heavily nor take on too much risk in these market conditions. If $SPY is looking optimal from open, this sentiment will clearly change, but realistically, safety is going to be my sentiment for the short term in these current market conditions!
If you want to watch any of my allocations, they will be posted live in the HaiKhuu Discord.
HaiKhuu Proprietary Algorithm Report:
Yesterday was a tough day for our systems as they follow the general market momentum. I am happy to see that the long-term portfolio outperformed the market movement, but it’s not anything of any major significance to be excited about. It was a tough day overall for everything, and it was just an unfortunate situation. Hopefully, market conditions get better as we need to see confidence come back into the markets soon.
To get an in-depth analysis of our algorithms' performance, check out Asher’s Report!
The results of yesterday are as follows:
Baseline:
$SPY: -0.87%
Our Results:
Sector Neutral: +0.01%
Market Neutral: -0.24%
Variable Sector Neutral: -0.5%
Variable Market Neutral: -0.67%
Long Term Portfolio: -0.82%
Base Algorithm: -0.98%
As I’ve said before, we are running a live beta test with our newest algorithm. These systems outperformed previous systems, and we are excited to see what happens, but at the same time, we are not blindly endorsing entries into any of these positions. This is all still a live beta test, and we cannot guarantee its success or state that we have 100% blind confidence in our processes.
We do recommend you do some due diligence with any of these positions but actively watch and allocate when you personally have confidence that lines up with our systems.
The best way to allocate is to find a beta weight you are comfortable taking on in the short term and find an allocation from the list with a larger allocation %, as that is going to signify more confidence in the position versus a lower % allocation. As always, practice safe risk management and limit your downside risk by setting stops on the positions accordingly.
DISCLAIMER - This is not financial advice. Utilize these trades with caution. These predictions are generated via our proprietary trading algorithm without taking into account market conditions, news, or any external biases. This is not a signal to buy or sell any equities, and we do not guarantee success. Take these at your own risk.
Algorithmic Alerts for 10/19/2023
My Personal Watchlist :
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY , $NFLX , $KO , $DIS , $F , $GM, $NVDA , $TSLA
Position Opportunities:
Follow the market momentum
Limit your downside risk
Allocate into strong value organizations
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $DIS / $DG / $KO
Long-Term Auto Sector - $F / $GM
Economic News for 10/19/2023
Initial Jobless Claims - 8:30 AM ET
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey - 8:30 AM ET
Existing Home Sales - 10:00 AM ET
Leading Economic Indicators - 10:00 AM ET
Fed's Powell Speaks - 12:00 PM ET
Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks - 1:20 PM ET
Fed’s Bostic Speaks - 4:00 PM ET
Notable Earnings for 10/19/2023
Pre-Market Earnings:
AT&T (T)
American Airlines (AAL)
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)
Blackstone (BX)
Nokia (NOK)
KeyCorp (KEY)
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)
Union Pacific (UNP)
Genuine Parts Company (GPC)
Phillip Morris (PM)
After-Market Earnings:
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
CSX Corp (CSX)
Bank OZK (OZK)
WD-40 Co. (WDFC)
Metropolitan Bank Holdings (MCB)
Wrap up
Overall, this is going to be a confusing time for the markets that will provide us with many opportunities to trade, so be smart and safe in these market conditions, but do what you can to maximize your profit potential. Watch out for the downside risk in the markets as risk has elevated significantly during this time. Practice safe risk management, and tread lightly.
Good luck trading today, and let’s make the most out of these opportunities!
Lil easter egg in the report if you’ve gotten this far down in the report (Sorry again Mike)