HaiKhuu Daily Report - 10/28/2024
Good morning, and happy Monday! I hope you all had a wonderful weekend and are ready for what should be a jam-packed week with LOTS of major news events, earnings, and crazy volatility.
Some of the major events to look out for include AMD and Google earnings on Tuesday, GPD, Microsoft, and Meta earnings on Wednesday, and Amazon, Apple, and Intel earnings on Thursday! There is obviously significantly more data and earnings that will be released this week, but we cannot include it all here. So go check out the FULL preview as earnings season is upon us! Click HERE to get the report!
Please, just continue to tread lightly in these market conditions but do what you can to maximize your profit potential. With $SPY as strong as it is, there is no reason why you should justify attempting to fight this momentum. Once there is a shift, and we get that confirmation of a reversal from the top, then it is a great time to short, but until then, tread lightly if you want to be bearish overall in the markets. The sentiment is not “wrong,” but it is premature. Do not fight the trend, and just make the most out of these market conditions.
This is going to be a great week full of volatility, so let’s have some fun and realize significant gains!
Good luck trading this week, and let’s make the most of it!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Support/Resistance: $580.27
Baseline Support: $575.65
Psychological Support/Resistance: $580
Daily Cloud Support: $556.29
Thoughts & Comments from Last Week
Last week, was a tough week for the overall markets. Conditions were not great, but there were many amazing opportunities that were being presented to us. We watched as $NVDA, $MSFT, and $TSLA saved the markets, with $TSLA having one of the best days they’ve ever had trading. It was a great week full of opportunities, but many people unfortunately did have a tough time as conditions were tough to navigate.
We started the week with $SPY opening at $583.96, looking relatively strong and within a striking range of making a new all-time high in the markets. Unfortunately, we never did go on to make that new all-time high, and we watched as markets chopped around for a couple of days before ultimately starting to move on Wednesday.
On Wednesday, we watched as $SPY started the day alright, opening the day trading at $581.26, only down slightly from open on Monday, but watched as there was a significant amount of bearish momentum as $SPY broke through the daily conversion line, and tested the daily baseline for the first time in almost two months. $SPY made the official low of the day and low of the week, trading at $574.41. Conditions at the bottom were not great, but we were not in a place where markets continued to sell off, as we did quickly reverse from the bottom and move up, recovering roughly 50% of the drop on an intraday basis.
Thursday and Friday, honestly, were relatively uneventful. We did watch as on Friday, $SPY did rally back up, going green for the week making the official high of the day, trading at $584.46, going green officially for the week, but we watched as $SPY continued to sell off slowly, leading into close, where we officially ended the week with $SPY trading at $579.04, down approximately $5 over the entire week, or down roughly 0.8%.
What I will say about last week is that conditions were great for the large majority of the time, but we were also in a place where it depended on how you were allocated and what you could do to realize a significant amount of gains in an extremely short period of time. Many people did get tossed around like a football last week, but other people got paid like they were a start QB. So, it just matters what you were able to do, and all I can say is congratulations to everyone who realized a significant amount of gains and continues to do what you can to make the most of these market conditions!
S&P 500 Heat Map - 10/25/2024
Thoughts & Comments for Today - 10/28/2024
Today should be a fun day for the overall markets, and this will be a fun week with many great opportunities to trade and realize a significant amount of gains in the process. As you all know, my sentiment for the previous couple of weeks have been a skeptical bull, believing that the markets are going to reverse before the elections and provide us with an amazing buy-the-dip opportunity, and we are getting to a place where this is becoming more of a point of consideration for a reversal. We are seeing momentum slow down across the board, with the only reason why the markets remained as strong as they did last week being due to the fact that $NVDA carried Monday, $MSFT carried Tuesday, and $TSLA carried Thursday. If market conditions do not strengthen in the near future, I believe that there is going to be a large shift in general sentiment, where I will personally shift from being a skeptical bull to being bearish.
The easiest way to see general movement, is by looking at technical analysis on a larger timeframe. Look for signs of a reversal setting up, like seeing $SPY test daily support levels, selling off through those said support levels, or a bearish TK cross under. There are obviously more reversal signals than that, but those are the ones that I will be watching. If $SPY breaks through the daily baseline support and officially has a bearish TK cross under, then that is going to be when we get our “confirmation” of a reversal, and it should be bearish.
Again, I just want to state that I am NOT bearish on the markets in the short term. I am bearish overall, but I would say that I am more of a skeptical bull. I want the markets to continue to go up, mostly as there is a significant amount of strength that we can capitalize on in the short term in these conditions, and now it is just a matter of being able to capitalize on the market conditions and make the most of it here in the short term. If earnings this week are great, I do expect 100% of this sentiment to be thrown out of the window until after the earnings season is over, but if earnings season is terrible (not my expectations), then we will see that confirmation of a reversal, and see a quick snap back in the markets (what I have been expecting), and will be provided with, in my opinion, an amazing buy the dip opportunity.
One headline that I saw over the weekend, and I do not know if it is true or not, is that there are rumors that $BA is looking to do another $15B in fundraising. If this is true, $BA is going to have a tough day today. However, if $BA does not ultimately do a fundraiser, then expect to see a significant bullish movement in $BA today as people are skeptical that it may happen.
For my allocations today, I do intend to keep things a little more simple. I will continue to hold the long positions I have in my portfolio and look to actively scalp and day trade to capitalize on the short-term momentum in the markets. I will say that I do not intend on directly playing many of the earnings coming up this week. We do have $INTC earnings coming up, and that is one of the long positions that I am personally holding, and I will continue to ride through their earnings. In the case that $INTC dips, I will look for an amazing opportunity to add more, and in the case that $INTC rips…. :)
Just continue to be smart and practice safe risk management in these conditions. There is going to be a significant amount of volatility, not only today but this entire week. So tread lightly and protect your bottom line!
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, $RIVN, $BA, $INTC, $NVDA, $AAPL, $TSLA, $MSFT
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $INTC / $BA / $RIVN
Economic News for 10/28/2024 (ET):
No News Scheduled
Notable Earnings for 10/28/2024
Pre-Market Earnings:
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)
Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC),
Fomento Economico (FMX)
Royal Philips (PHG)
Hope Bancorp (HOPE)
After Market Earnings:
Ford Motor Company (F)
TransMedics Group (TMDX)
WM (WM)
Brown & Brown (BRO)
F5 Networks (FFIV)
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)
Amkor Technology (AMKR)
Encompass (EHC)
Flowserve Corporation (FLS)
CVR Energy (CVI)
Wrap up
Hopefully, market conditions only continue to print for everyone this week, but regardless, tread lightly as there is going to be a lot of volatility and risks that are associated with these conditions. We have many major earnings, so please continue to prepare mentally, and on a very literal basis with your portfolio for these conditions. This should be a fun week for the markets, so let’s make the most of it together!
Good luck trading, and let’s kill it this week!