HaiKhuu Daily Report - 10/29/2025
Good morning, and happy Wednesday! Wow, these market conditions are beautiful as $SPY has made a new all-time high, and we are headed towards $SPY $700. Market conditions are strong, traders are optimistic, and we are only becoming less fearful of these market conditions. As I have said before, we have officially started the “irrationality” part of my thesis. The plane is taking off; we have the perfect entry. Now it is for us to sit back and watch as it takes off into turbulence.
We have FOMC today, and statistically, we expect a 25-bps rate cut. There is a 98% statistical probability that it will happen, so it will be interesting to see what ultimately results from this!
Unless there is a massive shift in sentiment or market conditions, assume that the markets will continue to remain strong, but understand that just because conditions are strong does not mean that you should be overly bullish or overallocate. Traders will have a more difficult time trading in these volatile market conditions, and the risk of incurring losses has increased significantly. At the same time, anyone who is lucky or skilled should see increased profitability.
I’ve been saying this for the past couple of weeks, and I will retain my sentiment. Just please, be careful about how the markets are trending at the moment. There is so much confidence in the markets right now, and too much of it is coming from people who do not understand what is going on. People are not blindly allocating into the markets just yet. Still, we are seeing an increase in traders who simply do not know what they are doing, allocating too heavily into the markets because they can “afford” the capital position, not understanding the risks involved. So please, make sure to practice safe risk management today, because many traders will face that issue.
Good luck trading today, and let’s see a NEW all-time high!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Support: $673.01
Baseline Support: $670.87
Psychological Support: $670
Daily Cloud Support: $654.54
Thoughts & Comments from Yesterday - 10/28/2025
Yesterday was an absolutely insane day for the markets. As stated, yesterday humbled many traders while others realized irrational gains, it just comes down to where you allocated and in which direction. There were easy opportunities to trade, and $SPY made a new all-time high, so who can be upset when conditions are unusually strong? Hopefully no one here realized any significant losses, but if you did, it’s unfortunate and such is life!
So, we started yesterday with $SPY opening at $687.12. Conditions were honestly looking amazing at the time as $SPY was trading at a new all-time high, and we watched as there was a quick snap down at open to go and test $685 within the first half hour wiping out all of the gains that was generated during the pre-market session, but thankfully we watched as $SPY bounced up slightly from the bottom, and hovered around $686 for the longest while before $SPY came back down to make the official low of the day at $684.83.
Market conditions at the bottom were not ideal, but thankfully as traders got lunch in their system and became rational again, we watched as there was a beautiful rally from the bottom that everyone could have easily capitalized on, where we watched as $SPY went from barely red for the day, to making new all-time highs, and continued to rally afterward. $SPY went on to make the high of the day and official all-time high trading at $688.90.
Market conditions at the top were amazing, but unfortunately in the final 30 minutes of the trading day, we watched as $SPY went from the all-time high, to selling off for a half hour straight, going on to end the day with $SPY trading at $687.06, up roughly $2 overall for the day, or up roughly 0.25%. The interesting part of the markets though, is the fact that $SPY, with the confusing conditions that are being provided, made a new all-time high, yet on an intraday basis, had almost a perfect doji candle yesterday. $SPY moved up $0.06 from the open price, and had almost an exact $2 movement in both directions.
What this means, is that realistically and statistically, traders across the board lost yesterday, not only from a time perspective, but that also means that realistically both the bulls and the bears of yesterday got shot, and the only individuals who made consistent money throughout the entire day are those who were attempting to sell option premium and capitalize on the increase in volatility. So hopefully market conditions only continue to remain strong, and we watch as $SPY makes a new all-time high today!
S&P 500 Heat Map - 10/28/2025
Thoughts & Comments for Today - 10/29/2025
Today is going to be an interesting time for the markets. We have many things going for us leading into today, including new all-time highs, easing of fears, and FOMC. We are expecting a 25 bps rate cut today, but the real question is how the markets are going to react as a result of that. In the case that we do hit the 98% probability of getting that rate cut, it will be interesting to see where people allocate, how people allocate, and if they are comfortable or confident in holding in general.
We’ve seen volatility historically as a result of FOMC, and today is not going to be any different.
For those who’ve heard me say my FOMC game plan, I am getting that exact same sentiment leading into today, which I’ve seen with other organizations.
So please, if you are attempting to trade, understand the risks that are involved with attempting to trade during times of high volatility. Markets are looking strong, traders are optimistic, and I am genuinely excited to see where the markets take us at this point. Again, I would not advise anyone to take on a significant amount of risk in these current conditions, but with the way that things are going, please go into today being optimistic and understand that a lot can happen in an extremely short period of time, and that traders can easily realize some gains.
For my FOMC gameplan - before I say anything, legally I need to say that none of this is financial advice, nor a signal to buy or sell any position. I am not a registered financial advisor, and I am not YOUR financial advisor. Take everything I say with a grain of salt, as previous data does not predict forward trends.
But, days like today are cyclical as FOMC days do consistently happen. Going into today, general market sentiment is more bullish than it was previously, which is a great sign and provides traders with confidence in the process. This is never a bad thing, but it will impact sentiment slightly. I will give you the general FOMC game plan, and then tell you afterward how it adjusts.
So, FOMC Gameplan:
TL;DR (I’ll explain this more in depth during the full report)
Step one: The Rally, markets should move up slightly during the pre-market session, and we typically see people FOMO into the markets after seeing some bullish movement leading into FOMC, We rally slightly early morning, and then wait for a reversal that comes typically within the first hour of the trading day
Step two: The Reversal, markets should come down from the relative high where it was “overbought” and get into the “oversold” territory
Step three: The Burn, we watch as traders attempt to buy the dip, as everyone should be extremely bullish, and it’s “dumb that the markets are oversold”
Step four: The Stop, we watch as the markets continue to drop and stop kids out of their long bullish position
Step five: Neutrality, after we have stopped out a bunch of kids, then we will typically see some neutrality in the markets at the low leading into lunch
Step six: Snack break, once people have had time to eat some food and then people will start to act more “rationally” and as a result of that, they will start to buy, leading into FOMC
Step seven: FOMO, once people start to see that the markets are moving back up, leading into FOMC, we will see as other traders slowly FOMO back into the markets, allocating once again in speculation of FOMC
Step eight: News drop, leading into FOMC, we will see people actively allocating, typically those who buy bullish prior to the FOMO should be taken care of, but the issue is what happens after. News drops, anything can happen at this point. This is where rationality gets thrown out the window, markets start to move irrationally and will continue to move irrationally throughout the rest of the day
Step nine: Jerome Powell, once he starts speaking, anything can happen. Your prediction of what the markets will do at that point is as good as mine, and no one genuinely knows what is happening. Volatility is incoming; the question is what happens.
Step Ten: ?, ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
After Jerome Powell started to speak, there is really no certainty where the markets will take us, it will genuinely be unpredictable. If you know with 100% confidence what the markets are about to do with 100% certainty, I am going to call you out right now and tell you or anyone else that they should hyperleverage their account, borrow their mom’s life savings, and go all in, and most likely statistically lose everything in the process.
====
So; typical strat:
Do not FOMO in the early morning.
Look for an opportunity to short when the markets are overbought.
Cover at the bottom leading into the lunchtime lull
Re-enter long at the bottom and go long to capitalize on the FOMO
Sell into the FOMO leading into FOMC
Clean hands
Anything after FOMC happens is genuinely up for debate and anything can genuinely happen regardless of what is stated, so please, continue to tread lightly and be extremely careful and cautious when attempting to trade.
So; one caviat for everything that I did state before, the biggest issue with today is the fact that the markets are so bullish and strong and optimistic today, my worry is that we stay essentially in step one; where the markets just continue to move up heavily throughout the morning, never getting a great opportunity to captialize on the short in the markets, and then after we go on and then watch as $SPY drops heavily as everyone has overpriced the markets leading into FOMC and that we come back down to the $660-670 range as a result of the ongoing confusion. Again, I am not saying that is going to happen, but that is just the concern that I have going into today.
Just make sure to practice safe risk management today. I would advise the average trader to stay away from option contracts today, but everyone is allowed to do as they please, so just be smart and safe while attempting to trade and allocate into the markets today!
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
Tech: $ORCL, $TSM, $INTC, $NVDA, $TSLA
Speculative: $PTLO, $RIVN, $KHC, $BUD , $ADT
Long Dividend: $JEPI
Long Investment: $PTLO, $BUD, $STZ, $CMG
Short: $BRK/B
Crypto: SOL
Economic News for 10/29/2025 (ET):
Retail Inventories - 8:30 AM
Wholesale Inventories - 8:30 AM
Pending Home Sales - 10:00 AM
FOMC Interest-Rate Decision - 2:00 PM
Fed Chair Powell Press Conference - 2:30 PM
Notable Earnings for 10/29/2025:
Pre-Market Earnings:
Verizon (VZ)
Boeing (BA)
CVS Health (CVS)
Fiserv (FI)
Caterpillar (CAT)
Centene Corporation (CNC)
Etsy (ETSY)
Phillips 66 (PSX)
Kraft Heinz Company (KHC)
After Market Earnings:
Meta Platforms (META)
Microsoft (MSFT)
Carvana (CVNA)
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Google (GOOG)
Starbucks (SBUX)
ServiceNow (NOW)
eBay (EBAY)
Wrap up
Hopefully, market conditions today continue to remain strong. Again, I need to warn you about the skepticism that revolves around FOMC, and the volatility that will come in the markets today. Please, just tread lightly, make some smart decisions, and have a great time. I believe that many traders are going to be able to realize some gains while trading today, but the real kicker is going to be FOMC. So tread lightly today, have some fun, and realize some gains!
Good luck trading, and let’s see where JP takes us!