HaiKhuu Daily Report - 12/16/2024
Good morning, and happy Monday! Wow, BTC has made a new all-time high, and this will be an insane week for everyone. We have major economic news throughout the entire week, but the most important is, by far, the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Please tread lightly but make the most of these market conditions, as we have many events coming up that will bring volatility into the markets.
Major Events This Week:
Today: Services PMI (9:45 am EST)
Tuesday - Retail Sales
Wednesday - FOMC Interest Rate Decision / Jerome Powell Speaking
Earnings: $BIRK / $GIS / MU
Thursday: Jobless Claims / Existing Home Sales
Earnings: $DRI, $KMX, $NKE, $FDX
Friday: Personal Income/Spending & Consumer Sentiment
This is not ALL of the events happening this week, so please check out our WEEKLY PREVIEW to prepare accordingly for the week!
Please continue to tread lightly. This week will be massive for the markets, and I expect to see significant volatility across the board. This will make trading extremely difficult to do consistently with confidence but provide us with phenomenal opportunities to trade. Please practice safe risk management, but do what you can to maximize your profit potential. I am excited to see where the markets take us this week, and hopefully, we will watch as $SPY breaks out with relative confidence and makes a new all-time high again!
Again, One thing that still concerns me is that we are testing the daily conversion line support, so watch out for $SPY breaking below that level. I’ll discuss it later in the report but for now…
Good luck trading this week, and let’s have a great time!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Support: $605.60
Baseline Support: $596.47
Psychological Support: $600
Daily Cloud Support: $579.25
Thoughts & Comments from Last Week
Last week was a tough week for the overall market momentum. There were specific organizations that rallied beautifully, while overall, many sectors faced difficulties that impacted our ability to trade consistently across the board. Depending on the organizations you were allocated into, you either had a fantastic time and could have generated some life-changing money, or you would have had general difficulties navigating the markets and had a rather unfortunate time. But C’est la vie. That is simply the story of the markets, am I right? I mean, who wouldn’t go back in time 30 seconds prior and put their bet on the winning number on the roulette wheel?
So, we started the week with $SPY looking relatively strong, opening the week trading at $607.13. Conditions were excellent, and traders were both comfortable and confident. Still, despite this sentiment, we watched as markets sold off throughout Monday and made a relative low of the week on Tuesday before watching as the markets exploded and were extremely strong on Wednesday. Wednesday was an interesting time as we had CPI data come back as expected, and as a result of that, on top of the previous bullish momentum, caused the markets to rally up, where $SPY went on to recover all of the previous losses generated. We watched as $SPY rallied and made the official high of the week trading at $608.43.
Conditions at the top were pleasant, but unfortunately, we did watch as the bearish momentum returned. We watched $SPY chop around the daily support levels on Thursday and Friday. Thursday was not the worst, but we did watch as $SPY came back down to test the conversion line support, closing below that level, only to move back up before Friday’s opening. The same scenario happened on Friday, where $SPY dropped off again and ended the week trading at $604.21, down $3.56 for the day, or down 0.6%. The overall movement with $SPY dropping 0.6% was not of any major significance. Still, in my opinion, the most significant concern I have from last week is that $SPY broke below the daily conversion line and is displaying weakness across the board. I would advise you all to continue to tread extremely lightly on these market conditions but do what you can to make the most out of these conditions, as we are starting to see momentum slow down on $SPY at the top, signaling the potential for a reversal this week.
This should be a fun week for the markets, so let’s make the most of it and have a great time!!!
S&P 500 Heat Map - Last Week
Thoughts & Comments for Today - 12/16/2024
Today should be a great day for the overall markets. With the general market sentiment, I am seeing a lot of confidence coming from retail after last week's harsh conditions, refreshing and preparing for a great time. As I said before, BTC went on to make a new all-time high, and as a result, is going to be driving a lot of confidence, not only into the retail markets but also boasting heavily for any organization that is heavily affiliated with BTC.
Please continue to tread lightly if you are attempting to allocate into BTC at these all-time highs. I would not advise anyone to try to purchase BTC at these levels. Still, I believe there are many organizations you can look into allocating to capitalize on the bullish momentum. The easiest allocations would be the spot ETFs; simply look to purchase those guys at a premium for the most straightforward exposure.
A little riskier allocation would be purchasing an organization like $MSTR. $MSTR, at this point, has essentially just become a pseudo-BTC play, where traders are going to be buying and allocating into the organization instead of directly purchasing BTC, mainly if a firm wants to get some crypto exposure without directly purchasing BTC, and the final shout is going to be the big brain move in my opinion, but looking to buy into the organizations that are directly mining the bitcoin.
In my opinion, miners will be the most speculative and risky. Still, they provide us with fantastic opportunities to allocate to the markets, with an extremely low barrier to entry and the chance to trade with a high-beta organization with confidence. My preference for BTC miners has to be $GRYP, as they are one of the most efficient cryptocurrency miners and are securing a deal to decrease their operational costs exponentially. So, just my two cents.
I will say that this is all just my personal opinion, and none of this should be constructed as financial advice nor a signal to buy or sell any positions, but at the same time, I do personally believe that crypto is an extremely strong speculation, but would advise everyone to tread lightly at this level, as I do still believe that once BTC comes down, that it will be one of the first confirmations of a reversal in the markets. I also do have to disclose that I own both BTC and $GRYP at the moment, so I am personally biased with my opinions on both of those position.
For everyone else who simply does not care about cryptocurrencies, though, just continue to capitalize on the strength in all of the major tech organizations. Please continue to tread lightly and practice safe risk management. Capitalize on these conditions, and just have some fun!
For my allocations today, I intend to keep this a little more straightforward. My largest allocations at the moment are in $INTC and $GRYP. I may attempt to trade when allowed to do so today. Still, at the same time, I intend to remain relatively more passive in these market conditions as I see signs of weakness in the markets coming directly from the placement on $SPY. I'm not too fond of the way that the markets are set up, displaying a lack of momentum and the fact that we are testing the daily conversion line support. I would love to see the markets break out in a way that would bring more confidence, so I am simply holding positions, anticipating possibly cutting in the near future, just for safety's sake. Still, I will continue to watch and see what opportunities are presented to us in these market conditions!
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, BTC, $GRYP, $TSLA, $RIVN, $NVDA, $INTC, $AVGO, $GOOGL
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $INTC / $DG / $RIVN / $BA
Economic News for 12/16/2024 (ET):
Empire State Manufacturing Survey - 8:30 AM
Services PMI - 9:45 AM
Manufacturing PMI - 9:45 AM
Notable Earnings for 12/16/2024
Pre-Market Earnings:
None Scheduled
After-Market Earnings:
Mitek Systems (MITK)
Quipt Home Medical (QIPT)
Compass Minerals International (CMP)
Wrap up
Hopefully, markets will continue to rally and provide us with great opportunities to trade and realize a significant amount of gains in an extremely short period of time. I am excited to see where the markets take us this week, mostly knowing we have FOMC this Wednesday! Continue to make the most out of these conditions and practice safe risk management. This should be a great time with many opportunities to trade, so let’s have some fun and realize some gains!
Good luck trading, and let’s make the most out of today!