HaiKhuu Daily Report - 12/18/2024
Good morning, and happy Wednesday you beautiful people!!! I hope you all are ready for what is going to be a volatile and exciting day for the markets. We have the Fed’s decision on the interest rate later today at 2 pm EST, followed by Jerome Powell speaking at 2:30 pm EST.
Looking at the polymarkets, there is a 96% chance that we will see a 25 BPS decrease, which will be interesting as I realistically think there is no need to decrease interest rates at the moment. I obviously want rates to be as low as possible to get cash in the hands of everyone, but at the same time, rates are honestly not terrible at this point.
It will be interesting to see how the markets react despite pricing in the circumstance. Please continue to tread lightly and practice safe risk management in these conditions. $SPY is below the daily conversion line support. We can easily snap back up and move on to make a new all-time high today, or if the markets unfortunately sell off, we will be in a realm of free fall. So protect your bottom line, mostly knowing there is a VOL event later today.
Good luck trading today, and let’s see where Papa Powell takes us!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Support: $605.60
Baseline Support: $596.47
Psychological Support: $600
Daily Cloud Support: $583.45
Thoughts & Comments from Yesterday - 12/17/2024
Yesterday was a tougher day for the overall markets. Conditions were not great as $SPY did drop during the pre-market session, resulting in bearish sentiment leading into the day, which made the markets difficult to navigate with confidence. We have been on a slow downtrend in the markets, with many organizations not in the MAG-7 having an extremely difficult time. It is unfortunate, but it is just life.
So, we started the day with $SPY opening at $604.22, looking weak at open, to watch as $SPY attempted to reclaim $605 before rejecting that level and coming down to test $603, making a relative low of the day. Thankfully, the markets did bounce back up slightly leading into the lunchtime session, where $SPY went on to make the official high of the day, trading at $605.16 before watching as the markets sold off slowly into the afternoon.
The bearish momentum in the afternoon was relatively disgusting as it was continual and did not show any signs of strength in the process as we trended down, going on to make the official low of the day trading at $602.89. Conditions at the bottom were not ideal, and power hour was looking rough, but thankfully, during the final half hour of the day, we watched as $SPY rallied back up from the bottom before dropping slightly into close. We officially ended the day with $SPY trading at $604.29, down roughly $2.50 for the day, or down 0.4%.
I will say that yesterday was a rough one for the markets. There was no great momentum we could have capitalized on, but we did watch as $BTC went on to make a NEW all-time high in the process. Hopefully, you all were able to realize a significant amount of gains in an extremely short period of time and have some fun in the process! It will be extremely interesting to see where the markets go from here and have some fun in the process. Let’s make the most out of today, and realize some gains!
S&P 500 Heat Map - 12/17/2024
Thoughts & Comments for Today - 12/18/2024
Today is setting up to be an interesting time for the markets. As I said before, we have FOMC coming out later today, and Jerome Powell will be speaking. This will impact market volatility, making trading inconsistent and difficult to remain constant. I will warn you all that under these conditions, the markets are starting to show the first signs of a reversal on a larger timeframe, and I am excited yet nervous to see where we go. I would love to see a quick reversal in the markets before watching us rally toward the end of the year, but at the same time, we are at a place where, conditionally, we should be extremely skeptical.
I am not saying this to attempt to scare you, but in the case that conditions are not great leading into FOMC, this is just a fair warning that the markets can very easily come down. You all know the story of watching the markets sell off; it will start slow but quickly escalate and take traders by storm. Just continue to tread lightly and practice risk management in these conditions. But, what I will say is a positive. With the way the markets are sitting, it appears that everyone is skittish at the moment, attempting to sell off positions slowly in anticipation of FOMC. If interest rates come down and traders take that news positively (which they should), there is going to be an extremely high likelihood that the markets will rally as a result.
So just watch out today, as with FOMC, we expect to see a significant movement in either direction. Tread lightly, practice safe risk management, and do what you can to maximize profit potential.
Before I start on the next part, I want to say that historical movements are not predictors of future events, but typically, on FOMC days, what will happen is the markets will rally up early in the morning to inevitably reverse, dropping off, leading into the lunchtime session, before rallying again before FOMC. If you are attempting to trade, a couple of very easy shouts for today will be to attempt to short the top in the morning once $SPY shows a confirmation of a reversal towards the downside, to cover once momentum slows down during lunch, and then attempt to go long leading into FOMC. I do NOT advise holding any speculative position into FOMC, and if you continue to hold your long position until then, that is an underlying risk that you are taking. Anything can happen once everything is released, and then the risk is on you. I can speak confidently about how to prepare, capitalize, and allocate leading into FOMC, but afterward, it becomes a genuine risk that will make trading difficult to do comfortably and confidently. So tread lightly, practice safe risk management, and have a great time today.
For my allocations, I will say that again, I am heavily overallocated into $GRYP at the moment. I am anticipating a large movement here in the inevitable future as they have started the proceeds to secure their energy deal. This is not the wisest move that I’ve personally made, but it is one that has been done. It will be interesting to see how the position plays out, and I am excited to see where things go here in the near future. I’ll attempt to trade and allocate today as a result of the increased volatility with FOMC, but at the same time, I am not anticipating taking on a significant amount of risk on top of what I am already doing.
Just again, make sure to practice safe risk management today as a result of the ongoing market conditions and upcoming volatility events!
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, $GRYP, $AIFF, $INTC, $DG, $TSLA, $NVDA, $RIVN
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $INTC / $DG / $INTC / $BA
Economic News for 12/18/2024 (ET):
Housing Starts - 8:30 AM
Building Permits - 8:30 AM
FOMC Interest-Rate Decision - 2:00 PM
Fed Chair Powell Press Conference - 2:30 PM
Notable Earnings for 12/18/2024
Pre-Market Earnings:
ABM Industries (ABM)
Birkenstock Holding (BIRK)
Toro Company (TTC)
General Mills (GIS)
Jabil (JBL)
After-Market Earnings:
Micron Technology (MU)
Lennar Corp (LEN)
MillerKnoll (MLKN)
Steelcase (SCS)
Worthington Steel (WS)
Enerpac Tool Group (EPAC)
Wrap up
Hopefully, markets will continue to remain favorable for us and provide us with a great opportunity to trade and realize a significant amount of gains. Please continue to tread lightly and practice safe risk management in these conditions. Markets are strong, but we are seeing the first signs of weakness. None of this matters leading into FOMC, as that will be the major event everyone will be watching for to shift the markets, but at the same time, opportunities will consistently be presented to us. So please continue to tread lightly and protect your bottom line today, as anything can happen.
Good luck trading, and let’s see where the markets take us.