HaiKhuu Daily Report 6/15/2023
Good morning and happy Thursday! Hope you traders are well rested and ready for the markets today. Historically, today is a bullish day for the markets, but it seems that confidence has started to slow down, so please be careful in these current market conditions. $SPY is down from the previous close, and we saw a significant amount of downside yesterday after the news about the interest rate. This could be the first sign of confidence slipping from the markets, so do what you can to limit your downside risk, but take into account the reality of these current market conditions. It would not surprise me to see an increase in volatility and selling leading up to triple witching, so prepare accordingly. Follow the market momentum, but tread lightly. Look to take some exposure off the table for safety, and look to maximize your profits where possible.
Good luck trading today and let’s hope the confidence in the markets is sustained.
Thoughts & Comments from 6/14/2023
Yesterday was an absolutely insane day for the markets with a significant amount of volatility we all could have easily capitalized on. To start the day off strong, we opened with $SPY trading at $437.01, up slightly from the previous close of $436.66. We watched as there was a significant amount of strength in the first half of the day, where we pushed up and made a new 52-week high on $SPY. The high of the day and high of the year was $439.06, which brought a lot of confidence in the idea of $440 as a realistic possibility in the short term.
As people came back from lunch though and started to sell off their positions. We watched the markets come down from their 52-Week high and watch as $SPY came down to $437~ as everyone prepared for the Fed’s decision on the interest rate.
Once the decision was live, the Feds decided not to raise rates, which caused the markets to get shot down, and go red for the day. $SPY made its official low of the day trading at $433.62, down over a percent from the top. This movement, in reality, was not significant, but this is the first time we’ve seen some quick red in the markets in weeks.
The markets did recover quickly afterward as Jerome Powell was speaking, and we went green again for the day and chopped around until close.
Powerhour was a difficult time to trade as a result of this sentiment in the markets. There was a significant amount of chop that made it tough to trade, and there was no good movement to capitalize on.
We ended the day with $SPY trading at $437.18, up $0.52 for the day, or up approximately 0.12%, with an intraday bullish movement of up 0.04%.
There were many phenomenal trading opportunities presented throughout the day and I hope you all were able to capitalize on the movement and momentum in the markets. Hopefully, you were not chopped out by any positions and were able to realize a significant amount of gains trading.
Great job to anyone who outperformed the markets yesterday, and let’s hope that today is a significantly better day for the general markets.
Thoughts & Comments for Today, 6/15/2023
Today should be another interesting day for the general markets. As I said before, historically, this is a bullish day for the markets with a significant amount of confidence in the markets. As a result of the Fed’s decision yesterday, we are starting to see a slight slip in confidence in the markets, but there is still a significant amount of confidence that should still be accounted for. We are in extreme greed on the fear and greed index, showing us that there is a significant amount of downside risk in the markets, but the markets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent. I would highly recommend that the majority of individuals tread extremely lightly on these market conditions and not attempt to be aggressive with your allocations today.
We do have economic news that will impact market sentiment during the pre-market session, so watch out for that movement in the general markets prior to deciding on which direction you’d like to allocate into the markets. But I would say there is a significantly better chance for downside than continual upside at this point.
If you have not started to hedge your positions or started to get some general bearish allocations, this is a great time to do so as it may be your final chance assuming the markets are not able to rebound from this loss of sentiment.
Obviously, I want the markets to continue to go up and have a significant amount of strength. But at this current state of the markets, it is too optimistic to want the markets to continue to move up without a significant amount of reasoning for the confidence.
Please be careful and take the situation for what it is. Market conditions are extremely good at the moment with a significant amount of confidence, but I would not recommend being extremely bullish or over-optimistic in these current market conditions. Follow the market momentum, but understand the circumstances we are in.
I would personally not recommend attempting to go long in these market conditions, and if you want to ride the momentum in the markets, to attempt to actively day trade and scalp. There is a lot that can happen in the short term in these market conditions and a lot of people are going to have an extremely difficult time when attempting to go long highly overpriced equities at this time. Sitting on the sidelines with cash will suck in the short term in the case the markets continue to move up, but in the case that the markets come down, will present you with an amazing opportunity to have capital ready to invest. I personally do expect to see a 5-10% downside in the markets here in the near future, as a minor correction prior to the markets having another significant leg up.
Just watch out for these market conditions. Please practice safe risk management and follow the momentum in the markets. People are going to have a difficult time navigating these markets assuming that they are not properly allocated and protected. So protect your bottom line and don’t fight the trends in the market. Prepare accordingly but do not fight any trends.
If you want to watch any of my allocations, they will be posted live in the HaiKhuu Discord.
HaiKhuu Proprietary Algorithm Report:
Yesterday was an interesting day for the algorithms. Our fundamental analysis did underperform yesterday, but I am happy to say that the base algorithm and our technical analysis worked out phenomenally and outperformed the fundamental analysis by a long shot and beat out the return of $SPY on this incredibly crazy day for the markets.
To get an in-depth analysis of our algorithms' performance, check out Asher’s Report!
The results of yesterday are as followed:
Baseline:
$SPY: +0.04%
Our Results:
Variable Market Neutral: +0.32%
Base Algorithm: +0.27%
Sector Neutral: +0.11%
Market Neutral: +0.09%
Variable Sector Neutral: -0.06%
Long Term Portfolio: -0.43%
With market conditions shifting at this moment, I would advise caution when looking to take any of these alerts today. From a technical analysis standpoint, these are all valid utilizing our base algorithm, but I am personally not comfortable nor confident in these market conditions to recommend blind entering on anything today. Make sure to do your own due diligence prior to entering into any of these positions and make sure to practice safe risk management in the process of entering any of these plays. Make sure to set stops to limit your downside risk and be extremely cautious with these allocations for the next couple of days.
DISCLAIMER - This is not financial advice. Utilize these trades with caution. These predictions are generated via our proprietary trading algorithm without taking into account market conditions, news, or any external biases. This is not a signal to buy or sell any equities, and we do not guarantee success. Take these at your own risk.
Algorithmic Alerts for 6/15/2023
My Personal Watchlist :
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY , $DG , $DIS, $AMZN , $AAPL , $NVDA , $MSFT , $AMD
Position Opportunities:
Ride the momentum in the markets
Hedge the positions you want to hold
Set stops in guaranteed profit for any position you are in profit in
Cut all positions you are not comfortable holding
Exit positions you are comfortable taking profit on
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN
Long-Term Riskier EV Play - $RIVN
Economic News for 6/15/2023
Initial jobless claims - 8:30 AM ET
US retail sales - 8:30 AM ET
Retail sales minus autos - 8:30 AM ET
Import price index - 8:30 AM ET
Import price index minus fuel - 8:30 AM ET
Empire State manufacturing survey - 8:30 AM ET
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey - 8:30 AM ET
Industrial production - 9:15 AM ET
Capacity utilization - 9:15 AM ET
Business inventories - 10 AM ET
Notable Earnings for 6/15/2023
Pre-Market Earnings:
Kroger (KR)
Jabil (JBL)
John Wiley and Sons (WLY)
After-Market Earnings:
Adobe (ADBE)
Wrap up
Overall, be smart in these market conditions. I don’t want to be the guy to be extremely bearish, but we are seeing the first signs of a reversal in the markets as there is a shift in confidence. Tread lightly, prepare accordingly, but hope for the best. I obviously want to see the markets continue to push, but at this point, this movement up is unrealistic, and can possibly see a sizable downside in the short term. Do what you can to maximize your profits in these conditions, but protecting your portfolio and downside risk is what is going to be key in the short term.
Make some smart plays, realize some gains, and have a great time.
Good luck trading, and let’s make the most out of these market conditions.