HaiKhuu Daily Report 9/21/2023
Good morning and happy Thursday! Hope you all are doing alright because market conditions are looking extremely tough with a significant amount of fear that has come as a result of the interest rates staying the exact same.
$SPY is down significantly at the time of writing this report as we have rejected the daily baseline support, broke below the daily cloud support, and have had a weak bearish TK cross under.
As I have been saying for a while now, it is just a matter of time until we break down, and this is the first time in almost six months that we have shown genuine signs of weakness in the markets and a confirmation of a reversal in the markets. Momentum is continuing to slow down and more fear is coming into the markets with every passing candle during the pre-market session. Welcome to the final nail in the coffin.
We are at the lower end of neutral on the fear and greed index, and as a result of this, are starting to edge into the fear territory. This is going to be an interesting time that will prove to be extremely difficult to navigate on a consistent basis, even for the most consistent and profitable traders. Please be careful during these times and limit your downside exposure. Cash is king, take advantage of the opportunities, and get ready to allocate at the bottom.
As a side note, just know that historically, today and tomorrow are bearish days on the markets.
Good luck trading today, as anyone who is hyper-bullish at this time will need it.
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Resistance: $443.16
Base Line Support: $443.34
Strong Psychological Resistance: $440
Weak Psychological Support: $430
Daily Cloud Resistance: $438.12
$SPY Daily Candles - Broke Daily Cloud Support & Bearish TK Cross [9/21/2023]
Thoughts & Comments from 9/20/2023
Yesterday was an absolutely terrible time for the overall markets that left a lot of traders bleeding in the streets. I hope you all did alright and were able to come out unscathed and profitable, but I know for a fact that there were many casualties that were incurred in the process.
$SPY started the day looking strong, trading at $444.02, up from the previous close of $442.71 and above the daily baseline support, we were looking optimistic remaining relatively neutral around open price for the large majority of the morning, where we went on to make the official high of the day trading at $444.43, and looking exceptionally strong in the process. People were optimistic about the Fed’s decision on interest rates and Jerome Powell's speech.
Not much movement happened for the large majority of the day as we actively chopped around the open price, where going into the interest rate decision, $SPY moved down a total of 0.1%, not providing many opportunities, but providing people with the ability to quickly scalp.
Right at 2 pm EST, when the Feds announced that there would be no change to the interest rate, we watched as the markets instantly shot down, providing us with an amazing opportunity to buy a quick dip and wait for Jerome Powell to start speaking. I know many people entered here as it provided us with one of the only alright trading opportunities of the entire day.
As Jerome Powell started to speak, we watched as there was a quick and short-lived pop in the market, providing us all with an opportunity to exit with ease, before the market continued to slip and fall extremely hard. We quickly went from green on a day-to-day basis on the markets, to watching everything get absolutely slaughtered in the process. $SPY continued to drop as we continually tested support levels for the entire rest of the day, and a significant amount of traders attempted to “buy the dip” but ended up getting slaughtered in the process.
In powerhour, we broke all forms of major support and showed a significant amount of weakness while Jerome Powell was speaking, breaking the relative low, and continually making new lows of the day going into market close. We ended the day with $SPY trading at $438.64, down $4.07 for the day, or down approximately 0.92%, with an intraday bearish movement of -1.21%. It was a devastating time for the markets and anyone who was hyper-bullish in the process, but it provided us with many opportunities to trade and not worry about general exposure.
I feel bad saying this, but I know that I was able to come out of yesterday completely unscathed, and I know many people are on the same boat as I am, but at the same time, a lot of people had an extremely difficult time yesterday, and are coping with their losses and contemplating what is their next move. If you are on my boat, congratulations, we made it through another wave, that will be just one of many we will pass through during our lifetime, and if you are on the other boat, look for the liferafts and try to secure what you can in the short term. Market conditions are going to be difficult, so think about your trading strategy, and capitalize on what you can in the short term to minimize general losses.
Let’s see what happens today, but all I know is this will be an extremely interesting time.
Thoughts & Comments for Today, 9/21/2023
This is going to be a hell of a day for the markets, there is a lot of fear going into market open and there is a significant amount of weakness right now as we have broken under the daily support levels. This is not going to be a good time for anyone who is involved and is going to make trading extremely difficult and inconsistent over the next couple of days, if not for a longer period of time.
What you should be worried about and focused on right now, is not the attempts to make a significant amount of realized gains, but to be defensive, and make sure to limit your downside risk. There are going to be many opportunities to trade in the short term, but limiting your downside risk in these conditions is going to be key to your success in the markets. I would not advise being overly ambitious or attempting to try and make any serious gains right now, but be defensive and do what you can to limit your downside potential.
As long as you can get through this short-term FUD and BS in the markets, you will be in a great place to allocate into strong equities in the markets and continue to move on with your life after we have found the bottom and moved on accordingly.
Does anyone “know” where this bottom is? No. But all we do know at this point is that there is a significant amount of downside risk in the markets right now that is going to continue to increase over the next couple of days in the markets and make trading extremely difficult.
Continue to watch for semiconductors and overpriced tech, both are going to be leading indicators of the market conditions. You will see semis slip harder than the majority of general tech and the markets, and as a result of this, you can use them to gauge what your game plan is for the markets in the short term, and how to navigate the markets accordingly. I would not buy and allocate long into any major tech organizations until companies like $NVDA have hit what is a genuine bottom, and have found a “fair price”.
Trading right now is going to be extremely difficult mostly as a result of the lack of confidence in the markets. The only allocations I would actively attempt to make are hedges on the positions you have right now, and simply just scalp the opportunities that are in the markets in the short term. I would not be ambitious and try to time out a bottom, because the dip can continue to dip, and the markets can continue to get absolutely slaughtered in the process.
Cash is going to be king in these market conditions, and the ability to purchase cheap equities in the short term is going to provide you with an amazing opportunity to capitalize on the market conditions. I would not recommend attempting to fight any trends in the short term and follow the momentum. Be patient sit on your hands for safety, and look for opportunities to allocate with confidence with time. Strong equities and leaps on organizations with a significant amount of upside potential will be the best allocation you can make over time, but I would not recommend attempting to allocate yet, because who knows where the bottom is.
Personally, I do not know how many allocations I will attempt to make today, and in reality, I do not have any plans to make any allocations at this time. I am personally in a significant amount of cash, as well as am holding strong equities that are not in the tech sector, that I believe over the course of time will do well. Two of these organizations right now are $DG and $DIS. Both are fundamentally solid organizations that I have no anticipation of exiting in the short term and are both organizations I can hold with confidence knowing that regardless of the market conditions in the short term, will provide me with a “safe haven” in comparison to higher risk, high-beta tech stocks.
Please just continue to be careful and cautious in these market conditions. There is a significant amount of risk in the markets and as a result, will ultimately create a significant amount of realized losses. Practice safe risk management, do not get greedy, and protect your bottom line.
Good luck not only today but in the near future.
If you want to watch any of my allocations, they will be posted live in the HaiKhuu Discord.
HaiKhuu Proprietary Algorithm Report:
Yesterday was an amazing day for our systems in comparison to the markets. Our fundamental analysis as a result of having low general exposure towards tech, was relatively neutral being down less than 0.2%, and provided us with an amazing opportunity to realize gains in the process. I am very happy with these results, but am not satisfied with how our technical analysis handled conditions yesterday. We are still on a tentative hold at this moment, not only because of the condition of the markets but as a result of this short-term performance. It would be one thing if the technicals outperformed the fundamentals yesterday, but technicals underperformed by a slight margin, despite being provided with what was an amazing opportunity that was carried out by our fundamental analysis.
To get an in-depth analysis of our algorithms' performance, check out Asher’s Report!
The results of yesterday are as follows:
Baseline:
$SPY: -1.21%
Our Results:
Sector Neutral: +0.4%
Variable Sector Neutral: +0.12%
Market Neutral: -0.05%
Long Term Portfolio: -0.19%
Variable Market Neutral: -0.29%
Base Algorithm: -0.52%
As I said before, these positions are on a tentative hold at the moment while we are live testing in these current market conditions. We are going to be lifting the hold soon as long as situationally everything is looking as expected. Just a reminder that these positions are not currently endorsed by HaiKhuu, but we are providing them for complete transparency and consistency sake while we are working on active improvements. If you are taking any of these positions, take them at your own risk and practice safe risk management in the process!
DISCLAIMER - This is not financial advice. Utilize these trades with caution. These predictions are generated via our proprietary trading algorithm without taking into account market conditions, news, or any external biases. This is not a signal to buy or sell any equities, and we do not guarantee success. Take these at your own risk.
Algorithmic Alerts for 9/21/2023
My Personal Watchlist :
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY , $NVDA , $ARM , $AMD , $TSLA , $MSFT , $AAPL , $FAZE*
Position Opportunities:
Follow the market momentum
Exit positions you are not comfortable holding
Hedge positions you want to hold
Have cash ready to allocate in the markets
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $DIS
Economic News for 9/21/2023
Initial Jobless Claims - 8:30 AM ET
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey - 8:30 AM ET
US Leading Economic Indicators - 10:00 AM ET
Existing Home Sales - 10:00 AM ET
Notable Earnings for 9/21/2023
Pre-Market Earnings:
Darden Restaurants (DRI)
FactSet Research Systems (FDS)
Valneva SE (VALN)
After-Market Earnings:
Flux Power Holdings (FLUX)
SHL Telemedicine (SHLT)
Wrap up
Overall, this looks like it is going to be an extremely bloody day for the markets. Please be careful and cautious, limit your downside risk, and look for opportunities while there is blood in the streets, I would not be overly ambitious while attempting to allocate into the markets right now, but I would look and prepare for opportunities that come in the near future. This should be a tough time, but will provide us with amazing opportunities as long as you are able to get through the short-term FUD.
Good luck trading, and in the near future, let’s see what the markets have in store for us.