HK Weekly Recap & Analysis May 8th, 2023
THE WEEK AHEAD (MAY 8th – MAY 12TH)
KEY ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES TO WATCH
MARKET RECAP FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
May 1, 2023
First Republic Bank Is Seized, Sold to JPMorgan, in Second-Largest U.S. Bank Failure
US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final Actual 50.2 (Forecast 50.4, Previous 50.4)
US ISM Manufacturing PMI Actual 47.1 (Forecast 46.8, Previous 46.3)
US Construction Spending MoM Actual 0.3% (Forecast 0.1%, Previous -0.1%)
US ISM Mfg. New Orders Index Actual 45.7 (Previous 44.3)
US ISM Mfg. Employment Index Actual 50.2 (Previous 46.9)
US ISM Mfg. Prices Paid Actual 53.2 (Forecast 49, Previous 49.2)
May 2, 2023
Google AI pioneer says he quit speaking freely about technology's 'dangers.'
Morgan Stanley to lay off 3,000 employees in response to “difficult” market conditions.
AMD revenue drops 9% as PC chip sales decline sharply
May 3, 2023
US S&P Services PMI Final Actual 53.6 (Forecast 53.7, Previous 53.7)
US S&P Composite PMI Final Actual 53.4 (Forecast 53.5, Previous 53.5)
US ISM Services PMI Actual 51.9 (Forecast 51.8, Previous 51.2)
US ISM Services Prices Paid Actual 59.6 (Forecast -, Previous 59.5)
US ISM Services Employment Actual 50.8 (Forecast -, Previous 51.3)
US ISM Services New Orders Actual 56.1 (Forecast -, Previous 52.2)
US Interest Rate Decision Actual 5.25% (Forecast 5.25%, Previous 5%)
Powell covered a range of topics, but these are the key highlights
Interest rates were hiked by 25bps, raising the total rate to 5.25%, and the Fed has not decided on a pause in rate increases at this time.
While the staff predicted a mild recession, Powell's forecast is for modest growth.
The labor market remains tight, but there are signs of easing wage growth and subdued housing activity.
Powell emphasized the importance of raising the debt ceiling promptly.
The Fed will use data to determine the extent of future rate increases and is attempting to achieve a sufficiently restrictive stance to reduce inflation.
May 4, 2023
US Initial Jobless Claims Actual 242k (Forecast 240k, Previous 230k)
US Continued Jobless Claims Actual 1.805M (Forecast 1.865M, Previous 1.858M)
May 5, 2023
US Unemployment Rate Actual 3.4% (Forecast 3.6%, Previous 3.5%)
Unemployment comes in lower than expected. If unemployment doesn't rise, the Fed will be inclined to raise rates higher to slow the economy
THE WEEK AHEAD & EARNINGS
Monday – 05/08/2023
Wholesale inventories - 10 AM ET
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee television interview - 11 AM ET
Fed Senior Loan Survey - 2 PM ET
AM Earnings: KKR & Co. Inc (KKR), BioNTech SE (BNTX), Tyson Foods Inc (TSN), Viatris Inc (VTRS), DISH Network (DISH), Freshpet (FRPT), Treehouse Foods (THS), Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM), Six Flags (SIX), Energizer (ENR)
PM Earnings: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), McKesson Corp (MCK), Suncor Energy (SU), Devon Energy Corp (DVN), International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), Ventas, Inc (VTR), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), Palantir (PLTR), Lucid Group (LCID), Western Digital (WDC)
Tuesday – 05/09/2023
Fed Gov. Philip Jefferson speaks - 8:30 AM ET
New York Fed President Williams speaks - 12:05 PM ET
AM Earnings: Duke Energy (DUK), Coty Inc (COTY), Air Products & Chemical (ADP), Under Armour (UAA), Catalent (CTLT), Corebridge Financial (CRBG), Fox Corporation (FOXA), GlobalFoundries (GFS), Henry Schein (HSIC), Jacobs (J)
PM Earnings: Airbnb (ABNB), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Electronic Arts (EA), Coupang (CPNG), Darling Ingredients (DAR), Axon Enterprise (AXON), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Akamai Technologies (AKAM), Rivian Automotive (RIVN), Twilio (TWLO)
Wednesday – 05/10/2023
Consumer price index - 8:30 AM ET
Core CPI - 8:30 AM ET
CPI year over year - 8:30 AM ET
Core CPI year over year - 8:30 AM ET
AM Earnings: Icahn Enterprise (IEP), Li Auto (LI), Performance Food Group (PFGC), RumbleOn (RMBL), Syneos Health (SYNH), Teva Pharma (TEVA), Wendy's (WEN), Roblox Corp (RBLX), Brookfield (BAM), New York Times (NYT)
PM Earnings: Disney (DIS), Manulife Financial (MFC), Nutrien (NTR), The Trade Desk (TTS), STERIS (STE), Amdocs Limited (DOX), Unity Software (U), Flex Ltd (FLEX), Jazz Pharma (JAZZ), Robinhood (HOOD)
Thursday – 05/11/2023
Producer price index - 8:30 AM ET
Core PPI - 8:30 AM ET
PPI year over year - 8:30 AM ET
Core PPI year over year - 8:30 AM ET
Initial jobless claims - 8:30 AM ET
Continuing jobless claims - 8:30 AM ET
Fed Gov. Christopher Waller speaks - 10:15 AM ET
AM Earnings: JD.com (JD), Brookfield Corp (BN), PerkinElmer (PKI), NICE Ltd (NICE), Entegris (ENTG), Charles Rivver Laboratories (CRL), Tapestry (TPR), US Foods (USFD), YETI Holdings (YETI), Krispy Kreme (DNUT)
PM Earnings: Sun Life Financial (SLF), Gen Digital (GEN), News Corp (NWS), Sanmina Corp (SANM), Getty Images (GETY), Iamgold Corp (IAG), Indie Semiconductor (INDI), SilverCrest Metals (SILV), Westrock Coffee (WEST), Harrow Health (HROW)
Friday – 05/12/2023
Import price index - 8:30 AM ET
KKR & Co. Inc (KKR), BioNTech SE (BNTX), Tyson Foods Inc (TSN), Viatris Inc (VTRS), DISH Network (DISH), Freshpet (FRPT), Treehouse Foods (THS), Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM), Six Flags (SIX), Energizer (ENR)Import price index minus fuel - 8:30 AM ET
Consumer sentiment (preliminary) - 10 AM ET
St. Louis Fed President Bullard and Fed Gov. Jefferson on panel on outlook for economy and monetary policy - 7:45 PM ET
AM Earnings: Spectrum Brands (SPB), Embecta Corp (EMBC), Soho House & Co (SHCO)
