HaiKhuu Daily Report - 01/29/2025
Good morning, Happy New Year, and welcome to the most volatile day of Q1. We have FOMC, Jerome Powell, and earnings from many major organizations today, including Tesla, Meta, and Microsoft. There is going to be a significant amount of volatility, so continue to tread lightly and practice safe risk management. Traders are going to be generating life-changing numbers today in the markets; the question is, which direction will those numbers be?
I know that conditions today will be tough to navigate, mostly leading into FOMC, so continue to protect your bottom line and limit your downside risk while maximizing your potential. Take on some smart positions today, don’t be overly excited to allocate, and just do what you can to have a great time.
Good luck trading today, and let’s make the most of it!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Support: $599.99
Baseline Support: $593.07
Psychological Support: $600
Daily Cloud Support: $601.03
Thoughts & Comments from Yesterday - 01/28/2025
Yesterday was an absolutely amazing day for the overall markets. There was beautiful strength coming from tech as buying the dip worked once again as $NVDA, $MSFT and $AAPL recovered nicely, and we watched as $NVDA recovered the majority of the losses that incurred money. I would say the overall performance of yesterday depends on your allocations, and where you decided to trade. Some had a lot of fun, while others realized significant losses.
So, we started the day with $SPY opening at $600.53, up slightly from the previous close, and watched as we quickly dropped off from open, scaring kids that we were about to tank again, making the official low of the day trading at $597.26 before recovering beautifully, rallying and continually making new highs of the day. We made a relative high at $603 leading into the lunchtime lull, where we took a quick dip and continued to slowly trend up, making new highs throughout the rest of the day.
Things did start to heat up a little bit more during power hour as $SPY went on to make the official high of the day, trading at $605.37. Traders were extremely excited as $NVDA continued to rally, and everyone, and I mean everyone had a wonderful time. We officially ended the day with $SPY trading at $604.52, up $5.15 for the day, or up roughly 0.9%.
I would definitely consider yesterday an easy, easy win for the markets, but if it was a win for your portfolio or not, it just depends on where you allocated. Consumer defensive on Monday printed, consumer defensive yesterday had a tough time, yet the inverse happened for tech. So, just take it how it is, and let’s just see what happens in the markets today!
S&P 500 Heat Map - 01/28/2025
Thoughts & Comments for Today - 01/29/2025
Today is going to be a rough and tough day for the markets. I am not going to attempt to sugarcoat things. Either $SPY is about to rally and make a new all-time high today, or we are going to have a lot of difficulty as losses are going to be generated like no tomorrow. If I am being honest, that is what is going to happen. Either we are going to be bloody red today due to FOMC, or we are all going to be counting our money at the bank.
What I will say about today is that there will be many predictable movements in the markets, and I have brought this up before. So, before I say anything, I just want to say that this is not financial advice nor a signal to buy or sell any positions. Previous performance is not vindictive of future performance, and you guys should all do your own due diligence and research prior to entering into any position…. but with the way that the markets are looking, I am expecting to see an easy repeat of what the markets typically do on FOMC days.
Early in the morning, we will see strength for roughly the first half hour or so, maybe a little bit longer, maybe a little bit shorter, but typically, it is the first half hour or so the markets continually move up. Once the momentum and buying volume starts to come down, people typically sell-off, leading into the lunchtime lull, and then we watch as the markets bounce ever so slightly, leading into FOMC. Obviously, a lot can happen. We can completely disregard this sentiment, and the markets can do their own thing, but that is “typically” what the markets do in these scenarios.
So, assuming my crystal ball works perfectly, my suggestion for allocation is to not chance the upside, as there really is no clarity with confidence early in the morning, but look for when the general market momentum is shifting, the volume is dropping, and you see signs of a reversal in the markets. Then, look to short that position and hold it until you are happy and comfortable, but ideally, stop out at the relative bottom during the lunchtime lull, leading into the FOMO of FOMC, allocating long and selling PRIOR to FOMC. You are taking on your own risk when attempting to allocate into the markets prior to FOMC, as anything can happen. The last time we watched JP speak on an FOMC day, we watched as we had one of the largest single-day market drops we’ve seen in all of 2024. So, do not be scared of today, but that is just something to consider in these market conditions. So be smart, be safe, and have some fun.
For my allocations today, as dumb as this sounds. I am superstitious about the lunar new year. I do not anticipate actively trading much today if any at all, and the only position I intend on making will be a position I have 100% confidence in and will be cutting out early. I just do not want to start the new year off with a loss, making this a generally losing year. So, apologies for not making a significant amount of sexy positions today, but I will obviously still be around actively watching and managing positions throughout the day with you!
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, $DG, $INTC, $GRYP, $NVDA, $TSLA, $AAPL, $MSFT
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $INTC / $DG / $BA / $RIVN
Economic News for 01/29/2025 (ET):
Retail Inventories - 8:30 AM
Wholesale Inventories - 8:30 AM
FOMC Interest-Rate Decision - 2:00 PM
Fed Chair Powell Press Conference - 2:30 PM
Notable Earnings for 01/29/2025
Pre-Market Earnings:
ASML Holding (ASML)
Progressive (PGR)
Danaher (DHR)
Automatic Data Processing (ADP)
Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA)
T-Mobile US (TMUS)
Brinker International (EAT)
General Dynamics (GD)
MSCI (MSCI)
VF Corp (VFC)
After-Market Earnings:
Tesla (TSLA)
Meta Platforms (META)
Microsoft (MSFT)
International Business Machines (IBM)
High Tide (HITI)
Lam Research (LRCX)
Celestica (CLS)
ServiceNow (NOW)
Century Communities (CCS)
Wolfspeed (WOLF)
Wrap up
Hopefully, market conditions today are amazing, and we will be able to realize a significant amount of gains today. Do not forget that we have FOMC today and Jerome Powell speaking, as well as many major earnings today. Conditions are going to be volatile, and traders are going to have a difficult time, but opportunities will be available to us to realize a significant amount of gains with relative ease, so let’s see what the markets do and have some fun!
Good luck trading, and let’s watch as Jerome Powell pumps the markets!