HaiKhuu Daily Report 04/22/2024
Good morning, and happy Monday! Welcome back. The weekend felt like it flew by! I hope you all had a great weekend and are ready for some tough market conditions again. $SPY is still hovering below $500, and earnings season is among us. There is a lot of economic news, and many major companies have earnings like $MSFT, $GOOG/L, $TSLA, and $META, so prepare accordingly as this is going to be an extremely volatile week with many opportunities to trade, but even more opportunities to get burnt. Hopefully, we will be able to see the markets recover over the next couple of trading days, but with the way everything looks, if earnings and economic news do not come back strong, expect to see significantly more downside in the markets. Conditions are fun, but it is just a matter of remaining calm and diligent in the process. Let’s have some fun. Make sure to practice safe risk management and prepare accordingly.
If you have not seen the weekly preview of the economic news and earnings coming up, click HERE.
Good luck trading, and let’s see what the markets have in store for us this week!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Resistance: $506.67
Baseline Resistance: $509.24
Psychological Resistance: $500
Daily Cloud Support: $492.33
$SPY Daily Candles - [04/19/2024]
Thoughts & Comments from Last Week
Last week was a disgustingly bloody week for the overall markets. $SPY was weak and consistently bearish, semiconductors got semi-decimated, and general tech had a terrible time. It was a week of consistent bearish momentum, and I hope you all prepared accordingly. Conditions were rough throughout the entire week, with us marking six red candles overall on the daily charts. It was a tough, tough week for the markets, but the bears finally one a week after months of getting slaughtered.
We started the week with $SPY opening at $515.27. Conditions were looking relatively strong after recovering from the volatility from the previous week but had an extremely tough time as Monday was filled with consistent bearish momentum. We had an official bearish TK cross under on the daily chart, and $SPY went from testing the daily support levels to dropping right down to the daily cloud. $SPY went from $515 to close the day on Monday, trading at $504.45. It was a quick and rather ruthless snipe, but that’s just market conditions. Many traders were able to capitalize on the opportunity and realize a significant amount of gains as a result, but other traders got decimated in the process.
This was followed up by four days of $SPY, continuing the bearish momentum and selling off into the daily cloud. We continued to move closer and closer to $500, breaking below the level multiple times but recovering quickly to sustain itself back above $500. Conditions were not ideal in any way, shape, or form, but thankfully, we were able to recover for a short period of time.
Friday is when our confirmations continued to get stronger. On Friday, we started the day with $SPY trading at $499.37, conditions were looking weak as we were trending under $500, and markets continually dropped throughout the large majority of the day. There was no solid bullish momentum or opportunities, and we were able to sustain our place with $SPY trading under $500. We made the official low of the day and low of the week, trading at $493.86, and ended the week with $SPY trading at $495.16. Conditions were terrible, and as a result, we watched as $SPY dropped $20 in a week, or roughly 4%, and many traders got absolutely wiped out in the process.
I hope you all survived last week well. Unfortunately, many traders blew up their accounts in the process, but that is just life and the markets. This is where we try and figure out how to navigate these conditions, and prepare accordingly in the process. Conditions could be a lot better, but they also can be significantly worse. Let’s see where the markets go from here and make the most out of the opportunities available to us.
Heatmap - $SPY 04/19/2024
Thoughts & Comments for Today, 04/22/2024
Today is going to be an interesting day for the markets. We can go either direction with ease, it is just a matter of which direction we go. Markets conditions holistically, are still strong and up significantly, but we are starting to see the first signs of a confirmation of a reversal. We are displaying weakness and are back in fear on the fear and greed index. The real difficulty here is do we break out with both comfort and confidence at this level? Or do we ultimately sell off and become more fearful. All that matters at this point is protecting your bottom line and assuring that you are practicing safe risk management in the process. I would advise you all to be extremely careful in these market conditions because all we need realistically for the markets to come down is headlines about the war, economic news to come back terrible, or even just weak earnings from some major tech organizations that ultimately drive the markets down. Many organizations are heavily overvalued in these market conditions, so again, tread lightly on these market conditions and practice safe risk management.
One thing I do want to talk about is the active placement of the markets at the moment. With the way that everything sits, we are sitting in an extremely sketchy territory. With $SPY showing actual weakness for the first time, we are getting to a place of a confirmation of a reversal from the top. $SPY has already broken below both the conversion and base levels of support on the daily, has broken within the cloud, and has broken below the $500 level of support. In the case that $SPY continues to show weakness if $SPY breaks below the cloud, it is genuinely game over for the markets. The level to watch out for is $SPY $492.33. Hopefully, we do see a bounce before we hit that level, but realistically, this is something that you should consider as a realistic opportunity for the direction of the markets. It is not ideal if this happens in any way, shape, or form, but it is just something that you should realistically consider and contemplate in these conditions. Please be smart and safe, but understand the severity of what happens in the case the markets continue to sell off.
For my allocations today, I will say that I anticipate being relatively more passive today. I’ll look for opportunities to scalp and trade when I am comfortable and confident doing so, but at the same time, it is hard to be either comfortable or confident in these conditions. I have allocations that I am already in that I do not anticipate actively selling for a loss, but I am not happy with the market performance over the previous couple of days. So, I will either watch as market conditions remain less than optimal or, thankfully, be able to capitalize on the recovery of the markets. I want to take advantage when I can, but I also need to remain level-headed in these market conditions.
Protecting your bottom line and practicing safe risk management is going to be key to the longevity of your portfolio, mostly in these confusing times. You may miss out on opportunities to realize gains by remaining passive, but at least you will not generate a significant amount of realized losses. So, just keep that in mind when attempting to actively trade these market conditions, not only today but also again in the near future.
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays and see opportunities, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
HaiKhuu Proprietary Algorithm Report:
Last week marked the first official week of our newest algorithm, and I am extremely excited about these results. With the way that the markets sit, $SPY has been down 5% over the previous month, while our algorithm was able to get a return of +0.3%. This percentage does not sound amazing, but when you compare -5% to +0.3%, that is a very obvious win. I am happy to announce these results and hope that our algorithm continues to outperform the markets in these given conditions while remaining relatively neutral and taking on significantly less risk than $SPY.
The results of last month are as follows:
Total Trades Taken - 217 Trades
Long Positions - 111
Short Positions - 106
Unique Tickers - 112
Largest Winner
$RCL (Long) - March 27th
Return: +1.72%
Best Short position
$BLDR - April 4th
Return: +1.43%
Worst Trade
$NRG (3 Re-entries)
Total Loss: -0.66%
Click HERE to view the entire algorithmic analysis.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, $NVDA, $TSLA, $BA, $MSFT, $AAPL, $LULU, $ULTA
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $BA
Confirmed Re-entry - $RIVN, $ULTA, $LULU
Economic News for 04/22/2024
Chicago Fed National Activity Index - 8:30 AM
3-Month Bill Auction - 11:30 AM
6-Month Bill Auction - 11:30 AM
Notable Earnings for 04/22/2024
Pre-Market Earnings:
Verizon (VZ)
Albertsons Companies (ACI)
AZZ Inc (AZZ)
Truist Financial Corporation (TFC)
Zions Bancorporation (ZION)
HBT Financial (HBT)
Washington Trust Bancorp (WASH)
Bank of Hawaii (BOH)
Sify Technologies (SIFY)
After-Market Earnings:
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)
Nucor Corp (NUE)
SAP SE (SAP)
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)
Ameriprise Financial (AMP)
Packaging Corporation (PKG)
Globe Life (GL)
Brown & Brown Inc (BRO)
James Hardie Industries N.V. (JHX)
Lufax Holding Ltd. (LU)
Wrap up
This is going to be an extremely volatile week for the markets. Tread lightly and prepare accordingly. Market conditions could obviously be significantly better, but things can get worse very quickly. So make sure to take advantage of these market conditions, but prepare accordingly, as market conditions can get weak extremely quickly. Make sure to practice safe risk management and prepare accordingly for these tough and volatile market conditions.
Good luck trading, and let’s see if there is a confirmation of a reversal on the daily!