HaiKhuu Daily Report 07/01/2024
Good morning, and happy Monday! I hope you all had a wonderful weekend and are ready for what is going to be an extremely short and quick week for the markets! This is just a reminder that the markets will be a half day on Wednesday and closed completely on Thursday! Expect to see lower volume in the markets as a result of this, and please be careful in the process. We will see a decrease in volatility and there is a chance that the markets make an irrational move as a result. So enjoy the extremely shortened week, and let’s see where the markets go together. There will not be many earnings happening, but we will still see all of the typical scheduled economic news events, including PMI coming out today, lots of news coming out on Wednesday, and unemployment data coming out on Friday.
This is going to be an insane week for the markets, with conditions being a relative toss-up. So enjoy the shortened week with a weird break, as this will be the final week of this until the beginning of September, when we will get a break on the markets. Let’s realize some gains and have an amazing time!
Good luck trading, and let’s see where the markets take us!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Support: $545.94
Baseline Support: $534.32
Psychological Support: $540
Daily Cloud Resistance: $518.42
$SPY Daily Candles - [06/28/2024]
Thoughts & Comments from Last Week
Last week was an interesting and tough week for the overall markets. We watched as $SPY made a new all-time high, and conditions were optimal but difficult to navigate with both comfort and confidence. Many traders realized significant gains, while others got absolutely slaughtered in the process. Conditions could have been significantly better, retaining that high, but at the same time, conditions were extremely predictable as we were able to provide almost spot-on alerts of the tops and bottoms of the markets.
We started the week with $SPY opening at $544.22. Conditions were great on Monday as $SPY went on a tear to start the week, providing us with a significant amount of confidence in the process, and made traders extremely optimistic, making the official high of the day trading at $546.95, but dropped extremely quickly into close, making the official low of the week trading at $542.74. Conditions were not ideal in any way, shape, or form at the bottom, but thankfully, we were able to recover significantly throughout the rest of the week as $SPY continually tested and maintained the daily conversion line support.
The rest of the week was a slow but extremely consistent bullish moment, as $SPY continued to rally slowly, leading into Friday, where we were able to accurately predict both a new all-time high perfectly.
Friday started as a fun day for the markets as $SPY opened the day trading at $547.15. Conditions were strong but not overly optimistic. The markets continued to inch up, leading into economic news, and as a result, we watched as I was able to predict the state of the economy, which resulted in a bullish movement in the markets, where $SPY made the official high of the day, high of the week, and new all-time high trading at $550.28. This was an amazing time, but unfortunately, $SPY did show bearish momentum afterward. After a beautiful bullish movement early in the morning, $SPY sold off significantly from the top, rejecting $550, and selling off throughout the rest of the day to end the quarter. $SPY never really bounced and only continued to sell off throughout the entirety of the afternoon, continually making scalping and trading difficult, ending the week officially trading at $544.22, meaning $SPY dropped over $6 from the top, and lost all of the gains that were generated.
Overall for the week, $SPY was down roughly $0.11, or 0.02%. It was definitely a difficult time for the markets, but we were provided with opportunities to trade the upside and an amazing opportunity to short from the top and ride the wave into the end of the month.
I hope you all did well trading last week and are feeling significantly better about market conditions now. It will be interesting to see where market conditions go from here, and welcome to Q3!
Heatmap - $SPY 06/28/2024
Thoughts & Comments for Today, 07/01/2024
Today is going to be a tough day to gauge during the premarket session. At the time of writing this report, $SPY was up ever so slightly, which is not a major sign of confidence, as many things can change by the time $SPY opens and PMI data comes out. What I will say, though, is that this is going to be an extremely difficult week for the markets with many opportunities to capitalize on, while there are many opportunities to get absolutely burnt. Trading is always going to be around, but the only issue is if you are going to be able to remain solvent. I would advise everyone who is attempting to trade this week to be safer and to make sure to practice safe risk management, as anyone can trade this week, but very few will be able to remain comfortable, consistent, and profitable in the process.
I am assuming that trading not only today but the entire week is going to see a decrease in volume as a result of the holiday season, with the caveat that we might see inflow as a result of the new quarter starting and people reallocating. Outside of this, I am assuming that under typical market conditions, we are going to see a heavy decrease in the ability of the majority of people to realize gains and a heavy decrease in the amount of trades that will be happening. Tread lightly as we’ve all seen people be burnt before, and we will see people be burnt again. It is not a matter of whether people will realize losses, but this is more so a confident statement saying that it will happen. So, if you are attempting to trade this week, please tread extremely lightly, prepare accordingly, and manage all forms of risk.
One thing that I do want to remind people about, mostly during this shortened week, is to make sure to practice safe risk management. Traders who get overly emotional during times of low volatility and low volume are more prone to over-trading, and when you overtrade in times like this, it is very hard to get any sort of significant upside movement that you can capitalize on. As a result of choppy conditions, where you end up over trading, and continually taking losses as a result of attempting to allocate when a play is not available, and forcing positions not with logic, but with emotion. Many traders will be burnt because of this this week. Please be careful and cautious if you are a newer trader or are still emotionally attached to the markets where you will make irrational plays.
I personally do not advise many traders to attempt to trade aggressively this week. I know my plans are to remain relatively more passive during this week as a result of the shortened timeframe, but it is one of those scenarios where, realistically, everyone should have the same mindset about the conditions. Anyone who is saying they want to take advantage of these conditions, as many people are not going to be trading, is going to get burnt because they believe they are better than the masses, which is realistically hysterical, but to each their own. I’ll look out for opportunities that are presented to us, but I am just letting you all know now that I will not be forcing any positions nor alerting anything that I do not have confidence in, and if the markets continue to remain less than optimal, I will not alert any positions. But, if I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, $NVDA, $TSLA, $AAPL, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $BA
Economic News for 07/01/2024
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI - 9:45 AM
ISM Manufacturing PMI - 10:00 AM
Notable Earnings for 07/01/2024
Pre-Market Earnings:
None Scheduled
After-Market Earnings:
Cineverse (CNVS)
Wrap up
This week will absolutely fly by, and I hope you are excited about these market conditions. Please continue to tread lightly, but look to take advantage of the opportunities that are amongst us. Many traders are going to get burnt, so please make sure to practice safe risk management and allocate accordingly when you have the confidence to do so. Just remember conditions are going to be rough as conditions are going to be choppy, inconsistent and low volume. Smart traders are resting this week, and it would not be a bad time to slow things down in the process!
Good luck trading, and enjoy the shortened week!