HaiKhuu Daily Report - 09/17/2025
Good morning, happy Wednesday, and welcome to one of the most anticipated trading days of the month.
Today is going to be incredibly important, as $SPY is continuing to hover at the $660 support level, and we are about to see what happens with the interest rates. Please be cautious while attempting to trade today. At the moment, the markets are currently pricing in a 25 BPS decrease, but we will not know what the decision on the rate is until 2:30 pm EST.
If you are going to attempt to trade today, Godspeed, as it will be extremely difficult to navigate the inconsistent irrationalities of the markets. Continue to tread lightly and make the most out of these market conditions, but understand that navigating here is going to be difficult and extremely inconsistent.
So please, tread lightly, practice safe risk management, and mitigate as much risk as possible.
We are going to have a lot of fun trading today, so please prepare accordingly for these market conditions, and let’s have an amazing time!
Good luck trading today, and let’s see where Jerome Powell takes us!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Support: $652.56
Baseline Support: $647.37
Psychological Support/Resistance: $660
Daily Cloud Support: $629.21
Thoughts & Comments from Yesterday - 09/16/2025
Yesterday was an absolutely disgusting day for the overall markets. Conditions were slow, choppy, and challenging to navigate, despite providing traders with opportunities across the board to trade. Thankfully, $TSLA was able to save the day, and thankfully, we were all able to enjoy a wonderful day together. I hope you all had some fun and made some gains yesterday!
So, we started yesterday with conditions that looked great. $SPY was strong, traders were optimistic, and I will say that everyone across the board loved open. $SPY opened the day at $661.42 and rallied strongly at the open, reaching an official all-time high of $661.78, up $0.30 from the open price.
After hitting the top, then it was simply game over as we watched as $SPY quickly went on to drop and break below $660, and remained under there for the rest of the morning, leading into the early afternoon where $SPY did quickly recover, attempting to go black again on an overall basis with no luck, where we then dropped once againr leading into close, where we officially ended the day at $660.00, down just under $1, or down roughly 0.14%.
I will say that yesterday was a gross day for the markets, but I will not say that it was a gross day overall. There were many opportunities and organizations that you could have watched and capitalized on. It is just a matter of whether you were able to catch any opportunities or were burned in the process.
Regardless of what happened yesterday, let’s make the most of today and have a lot of fun. So, let’s see where the markets take us from here, and have a fantastic time!
S&P 500 Heat Map - 09/16/2025
Thoughts & Comments for Today - 09/17/2025
So, let’s talk about today. With the FOMC’s decision on the interest rate coming out today, I am going to warn you all again that with the general market conditions we are seeing right now, we are currently pricing in a 25 BPS drop, and the markets “should” like that. If that is the case or not, that is going to be up for debate, but at the moment, there is a 93% certainty that we are going to see a 25 BPS drop today.
If you are attempting to trade, make sure that you are all practicing safe risk management. As bad as this sounds, I genuinely believe that the majority of traders who attempt to trade today will realize a loss due to these ongoing market conditions. It is not because these market conditions are going to be a terrible time; rather, it is more a result of the confusion, human irrationality, and choppy market conditions.
Please, understand that there will be a lot of momentum-based movements today. This is very cyclical every time we have an FOMC, so please, if you are attempting to play any breakout or movement, make sure that you are not fighting any trends.
One prediction I have right now, as a result of the placement in the markets, is that I do not quote me on this. But I genuinely believe there is a high likelihood that the markets drop at open. We are right below the $660 major support level, having briefly rejected it yesterday, and we had a tough time. At the time of writing this report, $SPY is testing that level. I think with a little more uncertainty, that is going to chop around, and then allow us a fantastic early morning long $SPY scalp opportunity.
Everything just comes down to timing.
There will be many shifts in the general momentum on an intraday basis, where if there was a gun to my head, my prediction is as follows:
Quick snap drop at open
Recovery / Rally
New all-time high
Drop into lunch
FOMO into FOMC
???
Am I correct about this sentiment? I don’t know; we will see what happens after it opens, but that's my genuine tinfoil hat prediction for what is going to happen today. FOMC days are heavily influenced by human psychology, so understanding how the typical person reacts can help us play this event consistently, given its repetitive nature.
So, just be smart in these market conditions and tread lightly on the weakness in the markets.
This will be my final time bringing this up, but I am also interested in the idea and notion that the rates are not going to get cut today. Given a 98% chance of a rate cut, the likelihood of no rate cut is very low. I want to be 100% transparent before I say that. Statistically, by the book, you are about to get cooked and have a terrible time. However, due to the lower probability, the return potential for no rate cut is significantly higher. So, if you want to literally burn $50 with zero anticipation of making any money, go purchase some fed no-change Poly market contracts. Again, there is a 98% chance that you are wrong, but in the case that you are right, you will genuinely print money hand over fist. This is one of those scenarios where it is like a casino side bet. Assume you've lost and burned some money, but considering the ongoing market conditions, I believe this presents a solid risk-to-reward ratio.
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
Tech: $AAPL, $TSLA, $NVDA, $INTC
Speculative: $RIVN, $PTLO
Long Dividend: $JEPI
Long Investment: $INTC
Short: $BRK/B
Crypto: SOL
Economic News for 09/17/2025 (ET):
Housing Starts - 8:30 AM
Building Starts - 8:30 AM
FOMC Interest-Rate Decision - 2:00 PM
Fed Chair Powell Press Conference - 2:30 PM
Notable Earnings for 09/17/2025:
Pre-Market Earnings:
General Mills (GIS)
Innate Pharma SA (IPHA)
After Market Earnings:
No Earnings Scheduled
Wrap up
Hopefully, markets will only continue to rally on general market strength today. This is going to be one of those extremely difficult days to judge before open, so please, just tread extremely lightly leading into and around the FOMC interest rate decision. There are some fun side bets that you can make in these conditions, but this is your final warning that today is going to be a difficult day to navigate.
Let’s make the most out of these conditions and realize some gains.
Good luck trading today!