HaiKhuu Daily Report - 11/04/2024
Good morning, and happy Monday! I hope you all had a wonderful weekend and are ready for the election season! T-One day until the elections, so expect to see a significant amount of volatility in the markets! I will say it is very interesting to see the significant shift in Vegas’ odds. The current odds are 53/48, DJ/Harris. This has changed significantly in the past week, as at the peak, it was 65/35, but after this shift, there is an Implied 5% edge on Trump winning right now, but none of that matters as we come around the final bend.
It is amazing that we all have survived another four years; now, it is just a matter of finishing this strong and watching as the markets are going to be extremely volatile for the next two days. Please continue to tread lightly, but do what you can to make the most of these conditions.
Any position open over the next couple of days will be a dice roll, so choose wisely and make some smart allocations leading into this election cycle. This will be an interesting time with a significant amount of volatility. So, let’s see where the markets take us and realize some gains!
Good luck trading this week, and let’s see some volatility!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Resistance: $576.47
Baseline Resistance: $575.69
Psychological Support: $550
Daily Cloud Resistance: $561.19
Thoughts & Comments from Last Week
Last week was a tough time for the overall markets, with a sizable amount of bearish momentum. Conditions were great until they weren’t, and many traders unfortunately got wiped out as a result. Depending on how you allocated and where you allocated, you could have had an amazing time, as opportunities were presented to us, but many traders, unfortunately, had a difficult time as a result of the sudden bearish momentum in the markets. Hopefully, you all were able to survive and generate a significant amount of realized gains, but just know that if you were like many and generated losses. It’s life, and people move on. As long as you were down less than 2% overall, you should take it as a win as you beat $SPY!
So, we started the week with $SPY trading at $582.57. Conditions looked strong, but we slowly trended towards $580, touching it ever so briefly on Tuesday before rallying up ever so slightly but maintaining the general $580 level. Conditions at $580 really were not that significant, as we kind of simply hovered around that level for the longest time… and then Thursday happened.
Thursday is where the first significant movement happened throughout the entire week. As $SPY was continually testing daily support levels, $SPY quickly gapped down, breaking both conversion and baseline support before the markets even opened, giving us a spooky Halloween. We watched as $SPY continually fell throughout the entire day. We closed Wednesday with $SPY trading at $580, watched as $SPY opened at $575, and watched as $SPY made the low of the day leading into close, trading at $568.64. $SPY dropped roughly 2% in the process and took out MANY traders. Situationally, conditions could have been significantly better, but at the same time, it did provide us with some great opportunities to trade and allocate accordingly.
Friday was slightly better as we were able to recover a portion of the losses that were generated on Friday, but conditions were not great. We started the day with $SPY opening at $571.32, recovered beautifully, going on and rallying early in the morning to make the official high of the day trading at $575.55, but watched as the entire afternoon was weak bearish momentum, as we continually slipped, going on to make the official low of the day trading at $570.62. Markets did recover $2.40 on Friday, but the overall daily candle was red due to the intraday momentum. We ended the week with $SPY trading at $571.04, down $11.53, or down approximately 5%.
Conditions were not great in any way, shape, or form, but they did provide us with some great opportunities to trade, allocate, and make the most of these conditions. I hope that you all were able to realize a significant amount of gains with us trading last week because I know many traders had an amazing time. Now, it is just a matter of seeing where the markets take us, not only today but this week and the next four years!
S&P 500 Heat Map - 11/01/2024
Thoughts & Comments for Today - 11/04/2024
Today is going to be a genuine tossup for where the markets are going to take us. With the election coming up tomorrow, I would not attempt to do anything that would be extremely risky or volatile… unless that is the play that you are going for. This is going to be one of those few times that I simply do not recommend attempting to allocate in speculation of a major volatility event. Anything can happen, and I am expecting to see many traders being hurt in the process. I am not attempting to scare you when I say this, but I am just saying this as a fair warning that anything can genuinely happen over the next couple of days in the markets, and I would be excited but nervous at the same time. Markets can go on an absolute tear as we push up to make a NEW all-time high, or we can be caught in a position where the markets ultimately come down and sell off rapidly in an extremely short period of time. Anything can happen; we can go in any direction, but now it is just a matter of seeing what happens and reacting accordingly to the results.
One thing that I do think is interesting, is to see how correlated the markets have been. Over the previous couple of weeks, we saw strength come into the markets directly coming from the fact that crypto was rallying while Trump was leading the Vegas odds heavily, but as the elections come closer, there is significantly less volatility in those Vegas odds, resulting in Trump getting a narrower win against Harris, crypto tanked, and equities are coming down with it. It is clear to see what the markets want for the presidency, but again, nothing is set until we have a confirmation of who is elected as president.
I will say that I believe that a Harris presidency will be interesting for the state of the nation, but I can say with confidence that a Harris presidency will be almost certainly death for the markets. Traders are going to be extremely hesitant on allocating and are going to most likely cause a sell-off as people attempt to take their money out of the markets before causing the markets to be oversold and provide us with another amazing buy-the-dip opportunity.
But as I said before, this is going to be one of those times that I simply do not advise allocating into the markets on speculation of the presidency because anything can truly happen in a short period of time, and traders are unfortunately going to be in a spot where they have to be realistic with their speculation, but do what they can to navigate it accordingly, and many traders in my opinion, will have a difficult time navigating with confidence.
For my allocations today, I will say that I do anticipate attempting to trade when given an opportunity to do so, but I personally am not going to be doing anything that I simply am not comfortable or confident in here in the short term. I believe that many traders are going to be caught over the next couple of days, and I do not want to subject myself to the same level of exposure. So just tread lightly with me on these conditions, but continue to hold your strong positions that you are confident in!
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, $INTC, $BA, $RIVN, $GRYP, $TSLA, $NVDA, BTC, XRP
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $INTC / $BA / $RIVN
Economic News for 11/04/2024 (ET):
Factory Orders - 10:00 AM
Notable Earnings for 11/04/2024
Pre-Market Earnings:
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)
Constellation Energy (CEG)
Marriott International (MAR)
21ST Century Fox Class B (FOX)
Fidelity National Information (FIS)
New York Times Co (NYT)
CNA Financial Corp (CNA)
Brookfield Asset Management (BAM)
Kosmos Energy (KOS)
Zoetis (ZTS)
After Market Earnings:
Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS)
Wynn Resorts (WYNN)
Astera Labs (ALAB)
NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI)
Diamondback Energy (FANG)
Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT)
Realty Income (O)
Wrap up
Hopefully, market conditions only continue to strengthen leading into the elections, but this is going to be an extremely interesting time with a significant amount of volatility leading into the elections. Please continue to tread lightly and practice safe risk management while doing what you can to make the most of these conditions. The volatility is going to make it difficult to trade today, so be smart and safe but rational at the same time!
Good luck trading, and let’s see what this week has in store for us!