HaiKhuu Daily Report - 11/05/2024
Good morning, happy Tuesday, and welcome to the election!!! This is going to be a wild day for the markets, with a significant amount of opportunity and volatility. Conditions are going to be tough to follow today, but it will be a lot of fun as people are confused and conflicted across the board. Many traders are going to be able to take advantage of today and have an amazing time, while others have a difficult time. So simply just tread lightly today, and let’s see what chaos ensues today with the election.
Please practice safe risk management today. Market conditions are looking extremely weak on a larger timeframe. We have broken below both major levels of support on the daily, while $SPY is also looking to make a bearish confirmation with a TK cross-under. In the case that the markets start diving, we will dive extremely quickly and take many people captive at the same time. So prepare accordingly, as traders are going to have an interesting day.
Good luck trading today, and let’s see who wins the election today!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line Resistance: $576.17
Baseline Resistance: $575.69
Psychological Support/Resistance: $570
Daily Cloud Support: $562.41
Thoughts & Comments from Yesterday - 11/04/2024
Yesterday was an extremely tough day to navigate, with little momentum to capitalize on. There was weakness across the board as people adjusted portfolios accordingly to prepare for the elections, but no one had truly a good time. There was a significant amount of risk, and it was difficult to navigate with confidence. People had the potential to realize gains, but most traders were not able to generate anything of any major significance.
We started the day with $SPY looking alright. We opened the day trading at $571.11 and watched as conditions quickly chopped around. We watched as $SPY dropped and bounced off of $570 before ultimately rebounding and rallying up to make the official high of the day, trading at $572.50, roughly an hour into the trading day, and we watched as $SPY quickly slowed down, and started to show signs of a reversal. Once the markets started to sell off leading into lunch, the selling was consistent and extremely slow; where we watched as $SPY dropped to make the official low of the day, trading at $567.90, down from the top and looking disgusting at the bottom.
Thankfully, after dropping into the lunchtime lull, conditions did get slightly better as the markets recovered slightly and continued to chop between $570 and $571 for the entirety fo the afternoon, only coming down slightly into close, where we ended the day officially at $569.81, down $1.23 for the day, or down approximately 0.22%. Market conditions could have been better, but honestly, for the day prior to the elections, we should be happy as a result of the lower volatility in the markets, as conditions could have gotten disgusting extremely quickly.
So, we see where the markets take us from here, and have some fun today!
S&P 500 Heat Map - 11/04/2024
Thoughts & Comments for Today - 11/05/2024
Today is going to be an interesting day because of the elections. I am expecting to see sudden volatility and irrational movements throughout the day as votes are counted, and that is going to make allocating in these conditions extremely inconsistent and difficult. If you are attempting to trade today, please tread lightly as today, in my opinion, is going to be a difficult day to capitalize on. I am expecting to see a significant amount of volatility that consistently shifts throughout the day. That would be a great time as it provides us with many opportunities to trade, or else I am expecting to see an extremely narrow chop as people are more busy actively voting or looking away from the markets.
My prediction for where the markets are headed due to the elections is obviously going to be skewed, but I believe that both will result in a short-term rally. I think if Trump wins, the markets instantly go on a rally and push, while in the case of Harris winning, markets will be irrational for a short period of time, and we will sell off before being presented with an amazing buy-the-dip opportunity. Regardless of the winner, at least in the short term, I am expecting strength, but in the grand scheme of things, I think that the markets still will come down with time regardless of who is president, as many citizens are going to have a tough time adjusting from a Biden presidency to the next president.
To be politically unbiased and look at everything from a business perspective, I will say that Trump is good for American businesses. As a business owner and someone who wants the markets to rally from here, it is clear who the markets want as the president. I will say that neither are a great option, but Trump as a candidate would stimulate the economy positively in a way that people should be extremely confident in. I still believe that the markets need to cool down and recover after this insane rally that we’ve seen over the previous two years, but at the same time, once all of the turbulence clears, I believe that it is smooth sailing for either candidate.
But if you are attempting to trade today, please just be careful and tread extremely lightly. Traders are going to have an extremely tough time remaining consistent today with a significant amount of uncertainty in the air, making it difficult to remain confident. This lack of confidence is going to cause traders to overthink and become irrational while attempting to allocate. Just be level-headed while attempting to trade today, and make good decisions.
For my allocations today, I will say that I am planning on remaining more passive while the elections are happening. I expect that there is going to be a significant amount of volatility, which will be fun to attempt to trade, but I know for a fact that I will become emotional and overtrade mostly if I attempt to purchase into 0-DTE contracts. There is too much risk to be able to allocate with confidence in the short term, and I am not attempting to take on that said exposure. So, I will still call out a bunch of plays today while I can, but until then, I do anticipate being relatively more passive than I usually am in the, while holding all of the long exposure.
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, $DJT, $BA, $RIVN, $INTC, $GRYP, BTC, XRP, $NVDA, $TSLA
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $INTC / $BA / $RIVN
Economic News for 11/05/2024 (ET):
Election Day
Trade Deficit - 8:30 AM
ISM Services - 10:00 AM
Notable Earnings for 11/05/2024
Pre-Market Earnings:
Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS)
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)
DuPont (DD)
Builders FirstSource (BLDR)
Ferrari N.V. (RACE)
NeoGenomics (NEO)
GlobalFoundries (GFS)
Emerson Electric Co (EMR)
Fortis (FTS)
Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
After Market Earnings:
Devon Energy (DVN)
Pan American Silver Corp (PAAS)
Lumen Technologies (LUMN)
Microchip (MCHP)
BigBear.ai (BBAI)
Eos Energy Enterprises (EOSE)
Assurant Inc (AIZ)
Wrap up
Hopefully, market conditions are stable today for the elections. Conditions are going to be wild, and it is going to be extremely difficult trading today with confidence in a specific direction. Look to follow the general market momentum and simply make some smart decisions. Do not get greedy, and take advantage of the volatility in the markets. This will be an interesting time!
Good luck trading, and let’s have some fun!