HaiKhuu Daily Report 04/15/2024
Good morning, and happy Monday! Wow, what a wild weekend. We had war news, crypto dove, XRP hit a new 52-week low. I hope you all had a great weekend and are ready for some extremely volatile market conditions. Please tread extremely lightly in these market conditions as headlines can heavily impact the markets and momentum in the markets. Try and find value opportunities in these market conditions, but just be careful as earnings season is among us and there will be many external factors impacting your performance in the markets. This is going to be a lot of fun, so realize some gains, practice risk management and protect your bottom line.
Good luck trading, and let’s see what the markets do this week!
The updated $SPY daily levels are as follows:
Conversion Line: $516.47
Baseline: $516.37
Psychological Support: $500
Daily Cloud Support: $504.85
$SPY Daily Candles - [04/12/2024]
Thoughts & Comments from Last Week
Last week was a tough week for the overall markets, there was a significant amount of bearish momentum that made for great opportunities, and difficult times. $SPY is trading at the lowest point we’ve seen in a month, and watched as losses were consistently generated, with or without effort. It was a difficult time, and tested many trader’s ability to navigate rough terrain. Some traders prospered, but many traders had difficulties.
We started the week with $SPY trading at $519.85, with markets looking strong and conditions looking confusing. We were trading right under the $520 resistance level, but were looking optimistic as general market conditions remained strong and optimistic, despite the increase in volatility. This remained the sentiment for the beginning of the week. Conditions were relatively neutral, but thankfully, we were able to retain that level until Wednesday.
The back half of the week is where the difficulties started. On Wednesday, $SPY was looking strong during the pre-market session, trading at the high of the week, before economic news dropped and CPI caused the markets to trade at a relative low, and breaking below the daily support levels. We gapped down on the daily, opening the day trading at $513.48, and remained relatively neutral around that level, causing inconsistencies in the markets, we did thankfully recover beautifully on Thursday, making the high of the day trading at $519.48, but that seemed to be another rejection, as Friday was absolutely disgusting.
On Friday, we just had consistent bearish momentum in the markets that caused difficulties for everyone involved. Markets consistently dropped, making trading extremely difficult for any perma-bulls, as any dip buying opportunity was a fake out, and we dropped consistently. We ended the day on Thursday with $SPY trading at $518.00, and opened Friday with $SPY trading at $514.45. Markets were weak, and we watched as there was continued bearish momentum throughout the entire day. We went on to make the official low of the week trading at $509.09 before ending the day trading at $510.85. Conditions were not ideal in anyway shape or form, and ended the week with $SPY being down −$7.15 or down 1.38%.
Many traders had an extremely difficult time trading last week, but there were amazing opportunities to simply ride the market momentum and capitalize on the bearish movement. I hope that you all were able to minimize the losses generated, and were able to realize gains to offset the potential, but wow, that was quite the week for the markets.
Heatmap - $SPY 04/12/2024
Thoughts & Comments for Today, 04/15/2024
Today is going to be an extremely confusing day for the markets. With the way that everything sits, I am expecting this to be an amazing dip buying opportunity, but with that said, market conditions are looking extremely weak compared to at the top, despite $SPY being less than 3% from the top. We can very easily rip and rally back to previous levels, but this is the point where you should tread lightly. We are at the lower end of neutral on the fear and greed index, indicating that people are about to start to become fearful of these market conditions, which does sound like a buying opportunity in strong market conditions, but I would continue to remain neutral and not overly ambitious as conditions can easily continue to remain weak making trading extremely difficult and inconsistent.
Please make sure that you are practicing safe risk management in these market conditions. There can be war headlines at any moment that will heavily impact general market performance and ability to navigate the markets. I would not advise the majority of traders to attempt to trade as a result of these possible inconsistencies in the markets, and if you are attempting to trade, make sure to respect your stops and limit that downside where ever possible. Many traders are going to have a great time and be able to capitalize on this opportunity perfectly, and many more are going to get burnt heavily in the process.
One thing that I am interested in, that we may have missed out on, is the dip buying opportunity in cryptocurrencies. After a discussion I had over the weekend, I am very interested in purchasing some cryptocurrencies as we talked about the active price movement after news events like war, as assets like gold and cryptocurrencies typically drop as news comes out and people panic sell as there is a flight towards holding liquidity, before watching the dip buying opportunity gets bought back up. On top of this, Hong Kong is looking to open up spot bitcoin ETF’s soon, and if that is is able to pass, then it will be a huge bullish signal in the short term for the price of Bitcoin as everyone will be loading up. I do want to reiterate my stance on BTC, here in the short term I do believe it is heavily overpriced, mostly leading into the halving, and I am expecting to see some bearish movements as a result of it. But depending on your timeframe, I do still believe there is potential in the asset over a lifetime. I would not advise you actively purchase BTC here as a result of this, but wait to see a correction in the price of BTC, and purchase when you are both comfortable and confident. I personally am waiting to see if BTC can drop back down to the $20-30k mark, before attempting to purchase again. Please take this with a grain of salt, but just know that I am bullish on BTC as a storage of wealth over a lifetime (Give it another 20-30-50 years), but I do believe that in its current state, it is overpriced.
For my allocations today, I will say that I personally do not anticipate trading. This is not due to market conditions not being favorable. I will still watch the markets when I can, but I anticipate being able to actively trade again full-time starting on Wednesday. Thank you all for understanding and I am excited to trade again when I can!
If I see any opportunities, or if I decide to get into any other plays and see opportunities, I’ll announce what I see in the HaiKhuu Discord.
HaiKhuu Proprietary Algorithm Report:
Last week was an alright week for the algorithm. I am happy to say that we are still green on the newest system which is a sign of confidence, but at the same time, it is better to be optimistic on the opportunity, but pessimistic with the results. It can always be better, and that is what we strive for.
Here are the statistics of last week:
Total Trades Taken-
48 trades
31 unique tickers
22 Long Positions
26 Short Positions
Best Position
$RMD (Long) - Net +1.23%
Best Short
$MHK (Short) - Net +0.16%
Worst Position
$URI (Short) - Net -0.58%
Note - One Re-entry
My Personal Watchlist:
Note, just because something is on my watchlist does not mean it is a signal to buy or sell any equities
Watchlist:
$SPY, $LULU, $ULTA, $RIVN, $TSLA, $BA, $NVDA
LONG OPPORTUNITIES:
Long-Term Dividend - $GAIN / $JEPI
Long-Term Investment - $BA
Confirmed Re-entry - $RIVN, $ULTA, $LULU
Economic News for 04/15/2024
Retail Sales - 8:30 AM
Business Inventories - 10:00 AM
NAHB Housing Market Index - 10:00 AM
3&6 Month Bill Auction - 11:30 AM
Notable Earnings for 04/15/2024
Pre-Market Earnings:
Goldman Sachs (GS)
M&T Bank Corp (MTB)
Charles Schwab (SCHW)
Guaranty Bancshares (GNTY)
After-Market Earnings:
Skillsoft (SKIL)
FB Financial Corporation (FBK)
Inspired Entertainment (INSE)
Wrap up
This will be an interesting week for the markets with a significant amount of volatility, opportunity and confusion. Please continue to tread extremely lightly on these market conditions, but look to take advantage of these conditions when you can. I am expecting to see opportunities be consistently presented to us, but I am also expecting to see a lot of difficulties in the markets when conditions are in a state of confusion. Have some fun, protect your bottom line, and just tread lightly.
Good luck trading, and let’s see what headlines pop up today!